Penn State-Indiana predictions: How college football experts, computer data systems are picking the game

For the first time since 2019, Penn State is at least a four-touchdown favorite for the third home game in a row. The No. 10 Nittany Lions host 2-5 Indiana on Saturday at Beaver Stadium (Noon ET, CBS). The line has climbed from an opening position of 27.5 points all the way to 31.5 of this writing. The total is 45.5. Head coach James Franklin’s team is 6-1 against the point spread this season. As for its last two home games, it covered 42-point spreads against Delaware in September and UMass to kick off October. Now, it looks to get back on track with a reeling Indiana team coming to town.

“The best way to move on is to focus on the next opponent, learn from it, which we did on Saturday night, which we did on all day Sunday,” Franklin said Wednesday. “But then, it’s time to move on to the next opponent, learn the lessons from the game, make the corrections, and then pour all of our energy into finding a way to get a win against Indiana and playing well, so we can build that confidence and take it for the rest of the season.”

Will Penn State cover a double-digit spread for the seventh consecutive time? Here’s how national and local experts, plus computer data systems, are picking the game.

Computer model picks for Penn State-Indiana

At ESPN, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 29-7 Nittany Lions victory.

Over at Sports Line, the Lions are projected to lose but cover with a final score of OSU 25, PSU 23.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock has the Buckeyes winning 26-22.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Lions just a 98.2 percent chance of winning.

And, The Dunkle Index projects a 31-point margin of victory for Penn State and an under call with a total points projection of 38.

How are national writers picking Lions-Hoosiers?

At Sporting News, Bill Bender predicts a Penn State win and Indiana cover with a projected final score of 42-13.

“Indiana failed to cover in road losses to Maryland and Michigan – games they lost by an average of 36 points per game,” Bender writes. “Penn State is coming off an emotional loss to Ohio State. They had the Hoosiers last year the week after the Buckeyes and won 45-14. Penn State easily will get back on track, but that hangover could carry over for a quarter or so. Northwestern and Illinois scored 13 points on that defense. Can the Hoosiers hit that magic number?”

FOX Sports predicts a 42-5 Nittany Lions victory.

Pete Fiutak sees a 41-10 Nittany Lions triumph at College Football News.

“Indiana doesn’t force enough mistakes to make this interesting,” he writes. “It might hang around for a quarter or so, but Penn State will grind its way through to a good enough halftime lead before the defense dominates in the second half.

“And yes, there will be one deep shot from Drew Allar that connects to open things up a little bit. Penn State will open it up a wee bit in the third quarter.”

How are local beat writers picking the game?

At PennLive, it’s regular five-man picking crew is unanimous regarding a Penn State victory but split 3-2 on whether or not it will cover. Guest predictor Seth Tow of The Daily Hoosier picks a big PSU win by a final score of 51-10.

“Indiana is in a rough spot this season and in the big picture, and this is one of the worst matchups the Hoosiers could get when things aren’t going well,” Tow writes. “The Nittany Lions are surely out to prove something after last week’s loss, and they should run away with this one.”

For Sports Illustrated, Max Ralph calls for a 38-6 Penn State victory, while Mark Wogenrich predicts a 45-10 triumph for the home side. Wogenrich writes:

“Offensive tackle Caedan Wallace this week recalled Penn State’s double-overtime loss to Indiana in 2020, calling it “one of my least favorite Penn State games.” That might have some company now from last week’s loss to Ohio State. Before leaving Ohio Stadium, defensive end Adisa Isaac said, “Our next opponent is definitely going to be in for a good one.” He’s probably right, but we’ll see.”

The Daily Collegian has a clean 3-0 sweep when it comes to picking a win and cover.

How the BWI staff picks the game

Nate Bauer: PSU 31, Indiana 6
Sean Fitz: PSU 41, Indiana 6
Thomas Frank Carr: Penn State 41, Indiana 6
Matt Herb: PSU 41, Indiana 13
Greg Pickel: PSU 56, Indiana 0
Ryan Snyder: Penn State 45, Indiana 10