Penn State vs. Indiana Predictions: What should fans expect against the Hoosiers?

Penn State’s trip to Ohio State didn’t go the way fans hoped it would, but there’s still plenty to play for with five games remaining on the 2023 schedule. The Nittany Lions have two important games in the weeks ahead with a road trip to Maryland and home game against Michigan, but before they look ahead, they need to right the ship Saturday at home against Indiana.

Not much has gone right for Tom Allen and the Hoosiers this season, as they’re currently 2-5 overall and 0-4 in the Big Ten. In conference play, they’ve allowed an average of 37 points against Ohio State, Maryland, Michigan and Rutgers. They’re also scoring just 10 points per game against Big Ten opponents, which is why James Franklin and his team are now 32-point favorites at home, according to sportsbooks.

Since joining the Big Ten, Penn State is 24-2 all-time against Indiana and has never loss at home. The Hoosiers did beat Penn State in 2020, but this is a game that should see the Nittany Lions win comfortably.

What does our staff expect to happen? Check out our predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season: 6-1)

Envisioning a world where Penn State doesn’t come out slow on Saturday is difficult. Following last weekend’s dud at Ohio State, this is a Penn State offense desperately in need of a boost of adrenaline and confidence, and Indiana looks like the right team to provide it.

But, realistically, it probably isn’t.

The Hoosiers are just 2-5 on the season, winning only against Akron and Indiana State. But even with a recent slide of double-digit losses, they are a defense that has proven itself capable of giving Penn State trouble offensively during Tom Allen’s tenure with the program.

Having demonstrated a blueprint to keeping this Nittany Lion offense in check, pressuring Drew Allar and bottling up the running game, with the trip to the Horseshoe the most glaring example of its effectiveness, this one has all the makings of an ugly, plodding win for Penn State. That the Hoosier offense is a complete disaster and of no threat to Penn State’s defense alleviates the necessity of putting up a boatload of points.

Penn State: 31
Indiana: 6

Sean Fitz (Season: 6-1)

We often talk about the bye week always coming at a good time, no matter the location on the schedule. After laying an egg last weekend at Ohio State, having Indiana on the schedule on Saturday certainly helps. The Hoosiers are not good. They’re potentially the worst team in the Big Ten and whatever good vibes Tom Allen captured back in 2020 seem long gone.

James Franklin talked on Wednesday night about not just getting a win on Saturday, but playing well. He’s well aware something is off, and while beating Indiana won’t do much for the fanbase after last week, it can help get some individuals back on track on offense. Rutgers ran the ball 55 times last week and threw it just 12 times in a 31-14 win, so the formula seems pretty clear. It’s time to get Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen going. With the talent advantage, I expect this one to look similar to the first six weeks of the season. That won’t be much consolation, but Penn State needs to right the ship.

Penn State: 41
Indiana: 6

Thomas Frank Carr (Season: 6-1)

It will be fascinating to watch Penn State’s offense respond to the season-low output against Ohio State in the upcoming game. Do they make any major changes to the players, scheme or playcalling?

James Franklin teams typically stay the course and don’t do anything radical once the season is in motion, so my guess is that they won’t. However, Indiana’s defense always puts up a fight. Tom Allen’s teams will eventually break because of their one-dimensional nature, but it might be another slog for the offense early.

However, the Indiana offense is a wreck, and the Nittany Lions have feasted on teams that don’t have a complete team. Considering the effort the Penn State defense put out last week, we’d excuse an off-game, though I don’t expect it.

Penn State: 41
Indiana: 6

Matt Herb (Season: 7-0)

Penn State needs to get its mojo back on offense after a miserable afternoon at Ohio State. That being the case, Indiana’s visit to Beaver Stadium probably couldn’t come at a better time. The Hoosiers are 13^th in the Big Ten in scoring defense (29.3 points per game) and 12^th in total defense (366.1 yards per game). They’re last in the league against the run, allowing 174.4 yards per game.

Still, there is reason to be wary. In five of James Franklin’s previous nine seasons at Penn State, the Lions have followed up their first loss of the year by dropping their next game. If that happens again, the 2023 season will take a truly ominous turn. After the Hoosiers, PSU’s next three opponents — Maryland, Michigan and Rutgers — have put together a combined record of 19-4. The Wolverines may be the best team in the country, even with all the uncertainty swirling around their program at the moment.

For now, the Lions are stuck in a strange limbo. They’ve still got a path to the Big Ten Championship Game and maybe even the College Football Playoff. But after their showing in Columbus, few if any are thinking in such grandiose terms. Rather than providing the boost they were hoping for, the Lions’ performance reinforced the skepticism that has continued to dog the program as the series with the Buckeyes has grown increasingly lopsided.

With the schedule serving up nothing but East Division foes the rest of the way, PSU has a chance to change that narrative. Beating a struggling Indiana team decisively won’t do that by itself, but it would be a good place to start.

Penn State: 41
Indiana: 13

Greg Pickel (Season: 7-0)

Penn State played one of the best teams on its schedule last Saturday at Ohio State. This week, it plays quite possibly its worst remaining opponent. Indiana is amid a losing streak and a mess on offense. The Hoosiers were not going to seriously challenge the Nittany Lions’ defense either way. It’s the best one in the nation, after all. But some semblance of an identity may have helped the visitors move the ball some at Beaver Stadium.

With where things are now for head coach Tom Allen’s team, however, that’s impossible to envision. And, the defense is not as good as many previous Indiana defenses were. Combine all of that with a Penn State team that is eager to get the taste of its first loss out of its mouth and this has all the makings of a dominating blowout for head coach James Franklin’s side.

Penn State: 45
Indiana: 0

Ryan Snyder (Season: 6-1)

We’ve seen Penn State come out slow following losses in the past, but Indiana could be set for a coaching change if Tom Allen’s staff isn’t able to right the ship in the second half of the season. Following a win against Akron, which took four overtimes back on Sept. 23, the Hoosiers are yet to put four quarters of quality football together to scare any of its Big Ten opponents.

Last week at home against Rutgers they totaled just 14 points and less than 300 yards of offense. In a game the Hoosiers had to have if they wanted any shot at becoming bowl-eligible, they folded in the second half after being down just a field goal at halftime.

Indiana has also allowed opening touchdowns in three of its four conference games so far this season. Ironically, Michigan was the only team they held, only for the Wolverines to score on eight consecutive drives after a slow start. All that is to say that Penn State has no excuses for starting slow this week.

When you add in the fact that the Hoosiers have the worst rushing defense in the conference, Allar and the offense should be able to find a rhythm early. I expect a scoreline similar to last season, although this defense likely won’t allow two touchdowns.

Penn State: 45
Indiana: 10