Penn State vs. Iowa Predictions: What should fans expect from this year's White Out?

Penn State will welcome Iowa back to Beaver Stadium for the first time since 2020 for its annual White Out game Saturday night. With that season being played behind closed doors, you have to go back to 2018 as the last time the Hawkeyes played in front of 107,000 Nittany Lion fans.

Iowa is always a game fans circle on their calendar, but the anticipation for this year’s game has been ratcheted up a notch. Back in 2021, head coaches James Franklin and Kirk Ferentz went back and forth publicly over a disagreement on whether the Nittany Lions were faking injuries on defense to slow down an Iowa offense that isn’t exactly known for its tempo.

But even if you look beyond their last showdown, there’s a lot for fans to be excited about. Since Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993, these two teams have faced each other 22 times, with each program having 11 wins. Since 2010, the Nittany Lions are 6-3 in this series.

With that said, the Hawkeyes have won the past two meetings, making this one of the most intriguing games on Penn State’s 2023 schedule.

So, what should fans expect on Saturday night? Our staff gives their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season 3-0)

Considering how these games seem to always play out, it’s going to come down to patience and maturity for both of these teams. Penn State has thrown up 30-plus points in 10-straight games dating back to last season. But, even at home, that’s going to be seriously put to the test this weekend. 

Whether or not Penn State needs to cross that threshold is another story. Offense isn’t Iowa’s identity and the Hawkeyes don’t apologize for it. In that sense, Penn State’s defense needs to hang on and prevent long, laborious possessions, and the offense needs to not give away points via turnovers. 

The one irregularity that makes me think this won’t be a complete grind-it-out, predictable game is the White Out. Stars tend to shine in these conditions, usually for both teams, and I think that’ll be the case again on Saturday.

Penn State: 28
Iowa: 16

Sean Fitz (Season: 3-0)

Year in and year out, it’s generally understood just what you’re going to get with an Iowa football team. There will be sound, well-coached defensive and special teams units and an offense that will hinder the program’s overall ceiling. The Hawkeyes went hard at the Transfer Portal this offseason to try to break that tradition. However, if you put the 41-point outburst against a bad Western Michigan team last weekend aside, not much has changed in Iowa City. In fact, the whole country has come along on the watch to see if Brian Ferentz and the offense can average more than 25 points per game this year and extend his time as the team’s offensive coordinator. It’s really the most fun that can be had following Iowa football, so I am here for it.

Penn State will enter Saturday night in Beaver Stadium with a juiced-up atmosphere and a pretty good defense of its own. The Nittany Lions will hope to keep up the momentum after five takeaways last weekend and put Drew Allar in a spot where he can lead the team to some easy early points. If Allar can continue to protect the football as well as he has in his first three starts, Penn State could roll. Keep an eye out for some weirdness, however, such as Iowa blocking a punt or something along those lines, to keep this one closer than it should be. Iowa will try to keep this one manageable into the fourth quarter on the back of defensive mastermind Phil Parker, but the Nittany Lions may just have too much firepower.

Penn State: 33
Iowa: 13

Thomas Frank Carr (3-0)

Penn State will face its toughest challenge so far in the 2023 season when Iowa comes to town for the White Out. The Hawkeyes are big, physical and well-coached at each position. 

As always, the offensive line is a spotlight for this team, and that unit plays well as a cohesive group. But that doesn’t mean they’re unbeatable. Penn State should be able to match up with them well enough to put the ball in Cade McNamara‘s hands. McNamara is a careful quarterback in Iowa’s surprisingly vertical attack. But pressure up the middle with Abdul Carter could spell doom for Iowa if they get into too many obvious passing situations. 

On offense, Penn State will have to fight through tight running lanes and passing windows in Iowa’s defense. Allar has shown enough poise and field vision to comfortably assume he can get the job done if he’s upright and his receivers catch the ball.

Penn State: 31
Iowa: 17

Matt Herb (Season: 3-0)

This feels like another game in which turnovers could prove decisive. Over the years, Iowa has been great at generating them, and so far this year, Penn State has been great at avoiding them. Something’s gotta give. If that something is the Nittany Lions’ good luck streak when it comes to giveaways — they have yet to lose a fumble or throw an interception this year — Iowa will have a pretty good chance of leaving Beaver Stadium with an upset victory.

Still, nothing has fazed Allar so far, and there’s no reason to think that a White Out, with all the accompanying hype and scrutiny, will be any different. Iowa’s defense is formidable even when it isn’t collecting turnovers, so I don’t think PSU gets into the 30s this week. But in the end, I do think it will muster enough offense to stay unbeaten.

Penn State: 27
Iowa: 20

Greg Pickel (Season: 3-0)

Penn State fans are wound up about the Nittany Lions’ first meeting with Iowa since 2021. That was the infamous contest where Hawkeye fans booed PSU players who they thought were faking injuries. It was a big storyline at the time.

It isn’t much of one right now, but either way, legitimate injuries are a big part of this game. Iowa will be down star tight end Luke Lachey and its top two running backs. Penn State is still waiting to see if No. 2 receiver Harrison Wallace III will suit up after not being medically cleared to play in last weekend’s win at Illinois. Speaking of uncertainties, the weather is one, too. Will it rain all day, some of the day, or not at all? We do not yet know. 

Penn State is the superior team on paper. It may take some time to prove that though under the White Out lights. But, before the end of the game, it will be clear which currently undefeated side has a chance to win a Big Ten title and which doesn’t.

Penn State: 34
Iowa: 9

Ryan Snyder (Season: 3-0)

Once it was clear that Penn State’s game against Michigan would be a Big Noon Kickoff on FOX, there was only one game that fans wanted this year’s White Out to be. I think back to those discussions we had in the Lion’s Den this spring. It was an overwhelming majority. For Penn State’s coaches and athletic administration, this was the game they wanted as well.

Everyone is still well aware of that 2021 game and how chippy it got during and even in the weeks that followed. Becuase of that, I don’t expect Franklin to let off the gas at all, no matter how this plays out.

McNamara has had success in Beaver Stadium before, leading Michigan to a massive win in 2021. His stats so far haven’t matched his production with the Wolverines, but I do think he’ll lead a few touchdown drives.

I actually think the over/under at 40 is too low in this one. I think both teams will reach 20 points – Illinois could’ve easily reached that mark last weekend – but Penn State will keep its string of 30 points or more alive. Iowa usually covers this game, so 14 points seems a bit high to me, but I do expect the Nittany Lions to win by two scores.

Penn State: 31
Iowa: 21