Penn State-Iowa predictions: How college football experts, computer data systems are picking the game
No. 7 Penn State is favored to beat No. 24 Iowa by more than two touchdowns on Saturday night at Beaver Stadium. Questions persist on numerous fronts. Will it rain before and/or during the game? How will the Hawkeyes move the ball without their top two running backs and star tight end Luke Lachey? Is receiver Harrison Wallace III going to suit up for the home team? And, can the Nittany Lions put last week’s inconsistencies and mistakes on offense behind them?
All of those topics, and more, must be considered when picking the game. Below, we’ve rounded up how national experts, local beat writers, the Blue-White Illustrated team, and computer data systems see the contest playing out.
Computer model picks for Penn State-Iowa
At ESPN, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 26-14 Penn State victory.
Over at Sports Line, the Lions are projected to win but now cover with a final score of 27-13
The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock has the Lions winning 27-12.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Lions an 87 percent chance to win and suggests the winning margin will be by at least 17 points.
And, The Dunkle Index projects a 17.5-point margin of victory for Penn State and an over call with a total points projection of 47.
Lions-Hawkeyes picks from a national perspective
At Pro Football Focus, Max Chadwick sees a close contest that Penn State perseveres in. He has it 27-17 in favor of the Nittany Lions. FOX Sports’ staff, meanwhile, calls for a 27-17 Penn State victory.
FanSided.com calls for the Lions to cover the spread but does not offer a final score prediction. For the Sporting News, national college football writer Bill Bender sees a Penn State cover via a 35-16 triumph.
“Penn State lost the last two meetings with Iowa, but this team has a different look,” Bender writes. “The Nittany Lions have no turnovers through three weeks with starting quarterback Drew Allar, and the defense is limiting opponents to 3.1 yards per rush. This could be similar to last week’s matchup against Illinois. The Hawkeyes improved on offense, and Cade McNamara did win at Beaver Stadium in his last start in 2021, albeit with Michigan. The “Whiteout” makes a difference. Penn State rolls on.”
College Football News sees a 27-13 Penn State win.
Local beat writers pick Penn State-Iowa
The PennLive picks crew, including a guest picker who covers Iowa, is almost unanimous in favor of a Penn State win. But, columnist David Jones predicts that the Hawkeyes will pull off an upset with a 23-17 road victory.
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“Though Penn State is a 2-TD betting-line favorite with everyone anticipating a Whiteout ambush of the Hawkeyes, I’m going to pick a major upset,” Jones writes. “I’ll bank that [Iowa defensive coordinator Phil] Parker cooks up a scheme that fools Allar sufficiently to mine multiple turnovers, something the Lions have been fortunate to avoid completely so far. And that Iowa’s improving running game shortens the game just enough to take the pressure off so-far underwhelming Hawkeye QB Cade McNamara.”
Audrey Snyder of The Athletic has a 24-14 Nittany Lions win.
“This might be a rainy, messy, sloppy, peak Big Ten football game,” Snyder writes. “Penn State has two healthy backs built for this. I’m predicting little drama by the fourth quarter.”
All four of the pickers at The Daily Collegian call for a Penn State win. But, they are split in half on whether the Lions will cover the 14.5-point spread.
Last but not least, Frank Bodani at the York Daily Record calls for a 24-10 Penn State victory.
How the BWI staff picked the game
Nate Bauer: PSU 28, Iowa 16
Sean Fitz: PSU 33, Iowa 13
Thomas Frank Carr: PSU 31, Iowa 17
Matt Herb: PSU 27, Iowa 20
Greg Pickel: PSU 34, Iowa 9
Ryan Snyder: PSU 31, Iowa 21
