Penn State-Iowa wrestling predictions roundup: How do a computer data system and experts see the match?

Penn State wrestling is a 20.5-point favorite for tonight’s showdown with No. 2 Iowa. The line initially opened there, spent most of Thursday at 21.5, and then dipped back to where it started Friday morning. It could move throughout the day and will likely come off the board sometime this afternoon before weigh-ins at the Bryce Jordan Center this evening. Picks and predictions are already in across the Internet ahead of the No. 1 Nittany Lions’ second BJC match of the year. They are 9-0, as are Tom Brands’ Hawkeyes.

“We want to wrestle great and compete well and score points, but it’s also a great opportunity for us to see where we’re at and kind of be able to make adjustments from there leading into the postseason,” Penn State coach Cael Sanderson said this week.

“A lot of history, two great programs. Iowa is gonna bring it, we’re gonna bring it. It’s gonna be a lot of fun,” he added. “And you got two of the teams that are competing for the national title facing off in the dual meet. It’s good stuff. That’s what we do this for. That’s why we come in here every day. I think it’ll be a great environment, and we’re gonna have fun.”

How will things play out in State College on Friday night? We have a picks and predictions roundup below.

How does WrestleStat score the match?

Its computer data system has Penn State winning nine of 10 bouts en route to a 28-3 triumph. The only Nittany Lion loss, according to the model, comes at 133 pounds, where Drake Ayala tops Braeden Davis.

You can review WrestleStat’s full predictions here.

A Penn State-Iowa pick from a national perspective

Jon Kozak of Flo Wrestling, like most pundits, has Penn State winning eight of 10 matches en route to victory. While many are ending up with that bout split, how the wrestlers go about getting there differs from writer to writer. Kozak has it Penn State 26, Iowa 6.

“I predicted Penn State to win 8 of 10 matches but this dual could be considerably closer than that. Iowa has winnable matches at both 149 and 157 where I predicted them to lose,” Kozak writes. “If they win those matches, the dual score dwindles down to 20-12 in favor of Penn State.

“That means Iowa will need to pull off at least one upset at either 125, 141, 165, 174, 184, or 285. Beyond that, the Hawkeyes need to avoid giving up bonus points in any of the matches they lose. It’s a narrow road to a victory for Iowa but crazier things have happened in duals and all 10 matches should be incredible on Friday night in State College!”

Read his full analysis here.

Penn State beat writer picks

At the Centre Daily Times, Nate Cobler has it 28-6 in favor of the Nittany Lions. Jon Sauber, meanwhile, picks it 35-3 for the home side.

“There’s no reason to pick against Penn State at this point,” Sauber writes. “This dynasty keeps on rolling and should dominate anyone in its path, including the No. 2 team in the country in Iowa. Penn State could lose the reasonable coin flips and will still win the dual. Odds are the Nittany Lions will grab a couple of those — if not all of them — and earn the blowout victory.”

Read their full analysis here.

At PennLive, Jim Carlson did not offer bout-by-bout or score predictions but gave the Lions the advantage in six matchups, Iowa the edge in two, and called two other bouts toss-ups. You can read his analysis here.

Hearing from the other side

Eli McKown covers the Hawkeyes for the Des Moines Register. Does he envision the road team stealing a win?

“At 133, 149, 157 and 197, the Hawkeyes are either toss-ups or favored slightly in the match. Those are spots you have to walk away with victories,” he writes. “From there, due to the potential for bonus points for Penn State at 141 and truly just about anywhere with the talent in State College, winning six of 10 is where Iowa would likely need to be to pull an upset.

“It’s a difficult route, one in which Iowa would likely need to need everything to go its way, which is why Penn State is the heavy favorite.”

You can read his full analysis here.

How is Blue-White Illustrated picking the match?

Here’s our breakdown:

25: No. 7 Luke Liledahl, PSU d. No. 26 Joey Cruz, Iowa

133: No. 3 Drake Ayala, Iowa d. No. 7 Braeden Davis, PSU vs.

141: No. 3 Beau Bartlett, PSU md. Ryder Block OR Jace Rhodes OR Cullan Schriever, Iowa

149: No. 4 Shayne Van Ness, PSU d. No. 2 Kyle Parco, Iowa

157: No. 3 Tyler Kasak, PSU d. No. 1 Jacori Teemer OR Miguel Estrada, Iowa

165: No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink, PSU d. No. 2 Michael Caliendo, Iowa

174: No. 2 Levi Haines, PSU d. No. 6 Patrick Kennedy, Iowa

184: No. 1 Carter Starocci, PSU md. No. 5 Gabe Arnold OR Angelo Ferrari, Iowa

197: No. 1 Stephen Buchanan, Iowa d. No. 4 Josh Barr, PSU

285: No. 2 Greg Kerkvliet, Penn Sate d. No. 11 Ben Kueter, Iowa 

Final: Penn State 26, Iowa 6

You can read the full analysis for each match here.