Penn State is called a CFP contender in the latest SP+ rankings; where is it inside of the top 12?
Penn State is not among the preseason top 10 in the mind of every media member. However, ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s data-driven SP+ rankings continue to call head coach James Franklin’s team exactly that. His post-spring, post-portal update released this week has the Nittany Lions at No. 7. That’s exactly where they were back in February after the window portal window closed before spring practices started.
For those unaware, Connelly’s metric that ranks each team is made up of a combination of returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history. While there was plenty of movement elsewhere in the rankings (see them here), there were few changes in the top 10 between four months ago and now. Georgia is first, followed by Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, and Alabama in the top five. The Crimson Tide did switch spots with Michigan, which is now the only other team ahead of Penn State otherwise. Ole Miss, Notre Dame, and LSU still round out the top 10 in that order.
“More than 20 teams moved up or down at least 10 spots compared to February’s rankings, due to either transfer portal addition/attrition or me getting a much better read on returning production, for better or worse, after official roster releases,” Connelly writes. “Not much changed at the top, though. Alabama and Michigan traded places at Nos. 5 and 6, LSU and Notre Dame traded places at 9 and 10, and the only top-20 teams to move more than one spot were Clemson (from 16th to 14th) and Miami (from 21st to 19th). We certainly understand the balance of power pretty well as we head into the summer months.”
Metrics call Penn State a CFP contender
Penn State has a total of 26.8 points, up from the 25.6 it had in February. Connelly’s model gives the Lions a 72.8 percent chance of going 10-2 or better against the 34th-toughest schedule in the country. It’s why he calls the program a contender to make the newly-expanded College Football Playoff field.
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“We’ll call this an approximate contenders list for the expanded 12-team CFP,” Connelly writes. “Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon all start out in great playoff shape, while some combination of high quality and permissiveness from the schedule gives Penn State, Missouri, Texas, Ole Miss, Michigan, Alabama and probably Notre Dame and LSU solid odds as well. After that, the picture gets pretty blurry.”
Where is Penn State in the production rate metrics?
Connelly also breaks out a ranking of returning production for each team. Penn State checks in at No. 37 overall with 67 percent of its overall production back. That breaks down to 67 percent on offense and 68 percent on defense (there are no decimals in this exercise) which ranks No. 49 and No. 38 nationally, respectively.
