Penn State-Maryland Predictions: Will the Nittany Lions get back in the win column?

Penn State has not won since early October and is still one win away from bowl eligibility.

Will the Nittany Lions end a three-game losing skid and clinch postseason eligibility on Saturday at Maryland?

Oddsmakers have installed head coach James Franklin’s team as an 10.5-point favorite prior to kickoff in College Park. The game will start at 3:30 p.m. on FS1.

Before it begins, the BWI staff is back to make its weekly picks. Here’s how our team sees the matchup playing out.

Nate Bauer (6-2)

This one doesn’t feel like what the line suggests, to me, simply given what Penn State has shown offensively this season. So while I understand that many of the Nittany Lions’ opponents have had tough defenses thus far, I can’t shake the notion that, eight games into the season, this group is what it is.

And “what it is” for the Nittany Lions this season is fairly pedestrian. Outside of the Villanova and Ball State games, they’ve averaged 21.6 points per game. This weekend, at Maryland, is going to be wildly different from that?

The Terrapins have had more of an inconsistent showing this year, averaging 29.2 points per game but only making it into the teens in the three-straight losses to Iowa, Ohio State, and Minnesota last month. Here’s guessing Penn State’s defense is good enough to do the same in a closer-than-expected win for the Nittany Lions.

Penn State: 24

Maryland: 20

Greg Pickel (6-2)

Which Nittany Lions will show up? You’re not alone if you are asking that question this week but are unsure of the answer. I happen to think that we’ll see a motivated Penn State team that functions well on offense and limits chunk plays on defense. If so, a comfortable win, and a cover, can be expected. A play on the under 55.5 feels about right, too. It’s been a tough few weeks, but this is absolutely a bounce-back spot, and the visitors should take advantage of it.

Penn State: 33

Maryland: 14

David Eckert (5-3)

I think this is going to be closer than some folks are expecting. The total yardage output from these two teams is actually pretty comparable. We know that the Terrapins have a solid quarterback in Taulia Tagovailoa.

They’re capable of scoring some points even against a very good defense like Penn State’s. The question to me is whether Maryland can get the stops they need to win this game, as they’re currently surrendering over 30 points per game on average. Ultimately, Penn State has the superior talent at its disposal and will get the job done, but I think the Terps keep this one close.

Penn State: 31

Maryland: 24

Matt Herb (6-2)

I don’t think we’re going to see receivers loping untouched through the heart of Penn State’s defense the way we did last year when Maryland thrashed the Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. This year’s PSU defense is a lot better, and the Terps’ wide receiver corps has suffered some setbacks due to injuries. 

Penn State got hit with a flurry of haymakers in the first half of last year’s game, falling behind 28-7 and never catching up. This year, the Lions are better prepared to respond if Tagovailoa gets off to a hot start. Sean Clifford looked pretty healthy last week at Ohio State, and if he’s as good as he was in Columbus, or better, the offense will have the ability to counterpunch should PSU fall behind at any point on Saturday.  

Anytime you’re facing a playmaker like Tagovailoa, there’s an element of risk. But PSU has a talented team and is a prideful program. It’s hard for me to picture it losing four in a row. 

Penn State 28

Maryland 24

Ryan Snyder (5-3)

Maryland beat Penn State up pretty good last year, so you have to think the Nittany Lions will be highly motivated for this one.

Normally, with Michigan up next, you could make the case that this would be a letdown spot, but after three-straight losses, I expect a strong performance.

Penn State played a pretty good game last week based on everyone’s expectations, and now they’re facing a defense that allowed 598 yards against Ohio State, 326 yards rushing against Minnesota and even allowed a very mediocre, at best, Indiana offense to rack up 446 yards and 35 points last week.

The Terps also have some key injuries that have hurt them in recent weeks.

I’m with Greg. Give me the Nittany Lions by two touchdowns and the under.

Penn State: 31

Maryland: 17