Penn State-Maryland matchups: What to expect from the Nittany Lions, Terrapins

Penn State is an 11.5-point favorite ahead of Saturday’s matchup at Maryland.

One of the Big Ten East teams will leave College Park with bowl eligibility secured, as each program enters the contest at 5-3. The Nittany Lions are stuck in a three-game losing skid. The Terps, on the other hand, snapped a winless streak by beating Indiana 38-35 last Saturday.

How do the two sides stack up on paper prior to kickoff? It’s time to break down the matchups.

When Penn State has the ball

A battle of bad units, at least statistically, could help shape the outcome of this contest.

Penn State’s rushing offense is No. 12 in the Big Ten when it comes to both average yards per game (108.1) and yards per carry (3.3). Maryland isn’t much better at stopping the ground game. Its defense is No. 13 in the conference in both categories to the tune of 161 yards and 4.2, respectively.

Some have wondered in recent weeks, and probably rightly, about whether or not the Nittany Lions should just give up on trying to have a balanced attack. A few corners of the Internet have even suggested that offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich should just dial-up pass play after pass play. That’s not going to happen. But, we’re also not ready to believe that the backs and their blockers will suddenly get going on the ground. There is just too much evidence suggesting it’s not going to happen. Still, the unit that plays better than it has in the past will put its team in the best position to win Saturday.

With that said, Penn State’s key to victory still revolves around flying the air when it has the ball. Sean Clifford looked much better in Columbus than he did at Beaver Stadium. That same poise, consistency, and pocket-moving ability must carry over to Capital One Stadium. It’s easy to envision his receivers finishing with similar stat lines if so. Against the Buckeyes, Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington each topped 100 yards and five players had at least four receptions.

Maybe 52 pass attempts won’t be needed again, but it’s not a bad bet to say that they probably will be. Besides the two guys mentioned above, KeAndre Lambert-Smith could very well stretch the field for a few big plays. The Terps’ pass defense is among the worst in the Big Ten. If the Nittany Lions can take advantage of it, they’ll have no problem putting up enough points to win.

EDGE: PENN STATE

When Penn State is on defense

Two of Maryland’s four first-team receivers from the team’s first depth chart in August won’t play this week. That doesn’t mean the Terps can’t put up points, however.

Penn State fans know this well, as quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa and receiver Rakim Jarrett had a field day against the Nittany Lions’ secondary a year ago. Both are back, and two other pass catchers are now names to know: Carlos Carriere and Marcus Fleming.

Carriere had a career day against the Hoosiers while Fleming averaged 17.5 yards per catch in the win.

Maryland tries to be balanced but tends to lean toward its passing attack. Tagovailoa has been burned by turnovers at times but still sports a 17-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In the backfield, starter Tayon Fleet-Davis has six touchdowns. Backup Challen Faamatau sees plenty of work, too.

Penn State must avoid lapses in the secondary to limit Maryland as much as possible. It likes to be creative and chuck the ball around to open things up. If the Lions can keep Tagovailoa contained and not allow him to have all day to throw, it should have an edge here.

Based on what we’ve seen throughout eight games, that should be the case.

EDGE: PENN STATE

Odds and ends

–It’s something you don’t see every day, but Maryland’s depth chart lists an OR at punter. Anthony Pecorella and Colton Spangler each have 17 attempts this season. The former has more 50-plus yard boots, but the latter has forced more fair catches.

–Tarheeb Still is the player to watch in the return game. Maryland has been more active in the return game but doesn’t have a ton to show for it.

–Kicker Joseph Petrino has made 10 of 14 field goal tries.

–Maryland has a first-year special teams coordinator but he’s familiar to college football fans: Ron Zook.

–Safety Nick Cross is a stud. It’s clear why Penn State wanted him a few recruiting classes ago. He leads the Terps with 46 tackles and two interceptions.

Final thoughts

Despite its recent drought in the win column, Penn State is a double-digit favorite for a reason.

There’s no reason to doubt that Mike Locksley’s team will be ready to play, but the Nittany Lions should be, too, as they aim to win for the first time since early October.

Combine that hunger with a clear skill edge at nearly every position, and all the pieces should be in place for Franklin’s team to improve to 6-3.