Penn State-Maryland Matchups: Who will have the edge on Saturday?

By Greg Pickel

Penn State hosts Maryland on Saturday to close out the regular season portion of its 2024 schedule. It will be Senior Day in State College. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network. The Nittany Lions (10-1) are around a four touchdown favorite over the Terrapins (4-7). Mike Locksley’s side can no longer reach the postseason. Head coach James Franklin’s side, of course, aims for a win to secure the best College Football Playoff position possible.

“Maryland, obviously got a lot of familiarity with those people,” Franklin said Monday. “Was there for eight years, five years and then three years as offensive coordinator, head-coach-in-waiting there. So got a lot of history there. Me and Locks coached together for a number of years together there as well. Know the area. Got a ton of respect for the university. Ton of respect for the area, the DMV, the high school coaches in the area, high school programs.

“Excited about the opportunity. It’s also Senior Day for our guys, so a lot that comes with that. That’s been a little bit challenging for everybody in college football right now with the COVID years and things like that. But we look forward to having the opportunity to celebrate the seniors and what they’ve done for our program. Obviously we need to play well and be 1-0 to put us in the best position to be able to continue playing as a family as long as possible.”

Who will have the edge on Saturday? We break it down below.

When Penn State is on offense

Maryland has, at times, been able to put up points this year. But, it’s offense is inconsistent. That’s preferable to its defense, which is consistently unable to keep opponents out of the end zone. During its recent four game losing streak, all but one team has topped the 30-point mark, and the Terrapins have given up 31 points or more five times this season.

Coordinator Brian Williams over sees the nation’s No. 109 pass defense, which is the second worst in the Big Ten. It does own the No. 42 rush defense, which makes it one of the Big Ten’s better units in that regard, but there’s a trade off: Teams are getting big pass plays through the air and then struggling to run at times once they’ve built a lead. Maryland has allowed 101 10-plus yard pass plays and 38 of the 20-plus yard variety, which is among the most in the country. It has been very good about limiting explosive rushing plays. But, that hasn’t kept teams from scoring, and it won’t keep Penn State from doing so. Expect another heavy dose for tight end Tyler Warren, and it should be a good day to get Omari Evans open deep while using Trey Wallace all over the field. The Lions are struggling with the ground game and third downs of late, but even that won’t matter this week.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Nittany Lions are on defense

Maryland has an issue at quarterback. Billy Edwards, the season-long starter, has been dealing with a head injury and then left with a presumed concussion last week against Iowa. He was in and out of that game and his status for Saturday is unclear.

“[Billy’s] been banged up for two or three weeks now,” Locksley said after the loss to the Hawkeyes. “Billy came to me and said ‘Coach, I really want to try to go.'” He really gave us a chance. Then MJ came in and scrapped, and fought through adversity.”

Whoever is under center, the Maryland plan will be to chuck it around at will and hope for the best. They have one of the nation’s best statistical pass offenses and one of the worst ground game attacks in the country mostly because they rarely run and instead throw it almost endlessly. If Edwards cannot, MJ Morris will start and figures to play either way. Tai Felton and Kaden Prather lead the way in the receivers room. Running back Roman Hemby has six rushing scores and also 37 receptions, so he is a threat out of the backfield. Expect Maryland to try and get the ball out quickly to limit the Penn State pass rush. Even if it does, the game plan for the Lions is clear: Stop the pass and win the game. That should not be an issue for the nation’s No. 9 pass defense, especially if they face a backup under center.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–Maryland kicker Jack Howes is hardly reliable. He’s 11 of 16 on field goal tries this year, with all misses coming from beyond 40 yards and three from beyond 50. He’s also missed an extra point.

–The Terrapins have no threats in the return game.

–Punter Bryce McFerson averages 45.53 yards per boot, which ranks No. 11 nationally.

Final word on Penn State-Maryland

The Terrapins are as bad on the field as they look on paper. Could they score some points, especially if and when Penn State goes to its backups? Absolutely. Does Maryland have any reason to be in a close game with the Lions beyond maybe the first quarter? No. Expect the Lions to take care of business and roll into the postseason.