Penn State-Maryland matchups: Who will have the edge when the Lions meet the Terps

Penn State is back in Beaver Stadium on Saturday when Maryland visits. The Terps looked to be on track to be a Big Ten East surprise following a 3-1 October. And, they still are better than most expected at 6-3. However, the luster has worn off head coach Mike Locksley’s team throughout October and to start November.

The Lions own a 41-3-1 edge in the all-time series between the two schools.

“Their natural geographical location to us makes this game kind of one of those games. It’s not a rivalry game,” Locksley said Tuesday, according to The Washington Post. “Obviously we have to compete a little better to get it to that point.

“It’s an opportunity for us to, again, see where we line up and how we have progressed when it comes to the Big Ten.”

Oddsmakers have Penn State as a double-digit favorite prior to kickoff.

“Moving on to Maryland, obviously you guys know I’ve known Mike Locksley for a long time,” Penn State coach James Franklin said Tuesday.

“We have been on the same staff at the University of Maryland for a number of years. He’s done a really good job there improving their program and their roster.”

Who will have the edge on Saturday? We break down the matchups below.

When Penn State has the ball

The biggest matchup, from a Penn State perspective, in this game focuses on its offensive line versus the Maryland front seven. As we’ve noted often this week, the Lions have injury issues in the trenches. Right tackle Caedan Wallace could be back this week. But, left tackle Olu Fashanu is week-to-week. And, Landon Tengwall is done, which means it will be almost if not all Hunter Nourzad at left guard. However, he was dealing with bumps and bruises, at a minimum, early this season, as well. And, the Lions also have to make some play or not decisions with a couple of first-year players who are approaching the end of their time to play but not lose a year of eligibility.

Maryland has 21 sacks this season. Defensive lineman Greg China-Rose leads the way with four while linebackers Jaishawn Barham and Durell Nchami have three a piece. Ami Finau and Mosiah Nasili-Kite can cause problems from their defensive tackle spots, as well. Defensive coordinator Brian Williams is sure to use stunts and overload blitz packages to try and confuse and/or overwhelm Mike Yurcich’s blockers. That said, when the pressure doesn’t get home, the yards can pile up. Maryland is 11th against the pass and has given up the fourth-most yards per game in the Big Ten. Back-to-back 300-plus passing yards allowed performances in October surely inflate that average. But, it is not a secondary to fear. The rushing defense isn’t much better statistically, as well.

All told, though, the Maryland defense has shown in a few games that it can do enough to win if the offense holds up its end of the bargain. However, it’s showed the opposite, too. We probably don’t see as much of an edge here as we could have expected to going into this exercise. But, we see enough playmakers on the Lions’ side of the ball to cancel out the injury concerns.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Lions are on defense

Maryland has its own injury concerns on offense. Taulia Tagovailoa is an underrated quarterback. But, questions persist about whether or not a knee injury continues to impact his play. At Wisconsin last week, he was a dreadful 10 of 23 for just 77 yards. He is often hampered by inconsistent play despite a what at times appears to be an OK stat sheet. And, that can quickly sink the Terps, which could be without star receiver Rakim Jarrett, who left the Badgers game with a leg injury and is now a game-time decision for this week.

The biggest problem Maryland will face Saturday is two-fold. Weather could be a factor, though that’s looking less and less likely to impact the passing game. But, the Terps want to throw to win and that is the Lions’ best strength on defense. Wisconsin has a middle-of-the-road passing defense in the Big Ten against the pass and forced Tagovailoa into the stats listed above. The Terps will face a better one on Saturday. Combine that with what appears to be a healthy defensive line that can force pressures, and the biggest concern for Penn State will be health at linebacker. We don’t see that being enough of a concern to give the visitors a leg-up.

Finally, there’s one interesting subplot here: Maryland offensive coordinator Dan Enos was Manny Diaz’s offensive coordinator for the 2019 season at Miami.

EDGE: Penn State

Final word

There is not evidence on the stat sheet, tape, and injury report on both sides to suggest this game could be close. In fact, Maryland is probably the foe that Penn State fans feared most on the November schedule. It’s not an unfair stance. At the same time, there are still numerous factors pointing in the Lions favor, and the far outweigh any the visitors have going for them unless surprise injuries and/or a herculean effort from Maryland is in the cards. We can’t envision that, and thus give the edge to Penn State overall. But, don’t be surprised if this game is closer for longer than many expect it to be.