Penn State-Maryland Predictions: Lions face bowl-eligible Terps in tricky Big Ten showdown

Penn State has just three regular season games remaining in the 2022 football season. Head coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions are on pace to surpass expectations, as a 10-2 season and a trip to a New Year’s Six Bowl remains a real possibility.

But to do that, Penn State will have to get past a tricky Maryland squad at home this weekend. Mike Locksley and the Terps are already bowl-eligible at 6-3. With games against Ohio State and Rutgers in the final two weeks, a win over Penn State would give Maryland an opportunity for eight wins. That hasn’t been done in College Park since Ralph Friedgen’s final season in 2010.

The Terps know that won’t be easy, however. Since joining the Big Ten in 2014, Penn State holds a 6-2 record. However, Maryland’s two wins both came in Beaver Stadium in 2014 and 2020.

What can fans expect this weekend? Our staff gives their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season: 9-0; Last Game: 28-10 PSU)

College football isn’t static through the course of a season. Injuries and absences accumulate, or in some cases can be alleviated, and teams inevitably grow and change in one direction or another before the year ends. I only say as much because, in attempting to predict an outcome in Penn State’s game with Maryland this weekend, the point will be especially true.

The Nittany Lions are gutted on the offensive line. Landon Tengwall is lost for the season, Caedan Wallace hasn’t played in weeks, Olu Fashanu didn’t travel last weekend, and both Hunter Nourzad and Sal Wormley have been playing through injury. Throw in uncertainty surrounding linebackers Curtis Jacobs and Tyler Elsdon, and Penn State is clearly hurting with three weeks to play. 

But, importantly, so is Maryland. Taulia Tagovailoa makes the Terrapins go offensively and the quarterback plainly wasn’t right last weekend in a 10-point losing outing at Wisconsin. 

James Franklin said Tuesday that depth is a differentiator in college football. And, to his and the program’s credit, the Nittany Lions’ depth has demonstrated itself to be pretty talented and ready for the opportunity. Though this one might otherwise bear elements of potential trouble for Penn State, Maryland’s own issues serve as an offset and should help the Nittany Lions weather the storm.

Penn State: 31

Maryland: 16

Thomas Frank Carr (Season: 9-0; Last Game: 45-17 PSU)

Knowing what to expect from Maryland this weekend is complicated. They’re a good team with more speed on offense and overall balance than in years past. However, the interior of the offensive line has struggled this season, exacerbating quarterback Taulia Tungovalioa’s propensity to throw the ball to the other team. But at his best he’s a dangerous scrambler that can extend plays and find receivers downfield for explosive chunk plays. 

Defensively it’s a good unit that wants to stop the run with big-bodied defensive linemen. They don’t have a pass rush to speak of, but they do have a quality coverage unit. Penn State’s injury-riddled offensive line could struggle to find room this weekend, but should hold up well. However, this is a big game for Maryland and I’m expecting some wrinkles on both sides of the ball.

Penn State is playing well though, and they’d need to have a bad game for an upset. 

Penn State: 38

Maryland: 21

Sean Fitz (Season: 9-0; Last Game: 41-14 PSU)

Hopefully, the rain will clear out in time for this one to be played in decent conditions. Regardless of the weather, expect a decent dose of Maryland running back Roman Hemby, who is third in the conference in averaging 6.2 yards per carry this season. The Terps have talent, but they’re not as deep as some of the top teams in the conference. That has shown up in the last few weeks, as Maryland fell at Wisconsin (in more poor conditions) last weekend and played tight games against Northwestern and Indiana. 

While Hemby is the one that I highlighted in the opening paragraph, this one could hinge on big plays in the Maryland passing game. Taulia Tagovailoa has been banged up over the last month and the Terps will go as he goes. He has weapons in Rakim Jarrett, who is also banged up, and Cory Dyches, who plays a hybrid receiver-tight end. Penn State should be able to move the football on the defense, which is led by dynamic freshman linebacker and former Nittany Lions’ target Jaishawn Barham. 

Penn State: 27

Maryland: 13

Matt Herb (Season: 9-0; Last Game: 34-24 PSU)

After watching his team give up 278 rushing yards at Wisconsin last week, coach Michael Locksley grumbled about how the Terps had gotten outflanked. “We’ve given up the edge of our defense quite a bit this year,” Locksley said. “It showed up in the Wisconsin game, where we got sealed inside and then we’ve got the ball rolling off the edge of the table.”

As it happens, the Nittany Lions have a running back who has shown the potential to make big plays when he’s able to turn the corner. Could this be Nicholas Singleton’s opportunity to shine after ceding the spotlight (and eventually the starting RB position) to classmate Kaytron Allen? The Lions are dealing with some injury problems on the line that will inevitably impact their offense going forward, but … maybe?

Even if Singleton doesn’t enjoy another breakout day, the Lions look to have enough versatility on offense to outlast Maryland. The Terps have shown some point-scoring proficiency of their own, and they’re 2-2 at Beaver Stadium since joining the Big Ten. But except for the last 10 minutes of its game against Ohio State, Penn State has looked pretty good the past three weeks, and I expect that trend to continue.

Penn State: 31

Maryland: 21

Greg Pickel (Season: 8-1; Last Game: 34-20 PSU)

Penn State is dealing with offensive line injury issues. The weather could also be iffy, though it appears that conditions will be fine as of Wednesday. There were also, at times, availability issues with the Lions’ linebackers at Indiana. However, Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa could still be a bit away from 100 percent, and star Terps receiver Rakim Jarrett is a game-time decision.

The picture we’re trying to paint here is that there are question marks on both sides. The game may feature a matchup of teams that are 7-2 and 6-3, but they feel further apart than that. The Maryland defense could indeed pose problems, and the Terps have been able to move the ball at times this season, but this looks like an overall matchup advantage for the Lions on film more than it might on paper. That should show up in the final score even if the weather becomes a factor.

Penn State: 35

Maryland: 21

Ryan Snyder (Season: 8-1; Last Game: 31-14 PSU)

This game likely means more to Maryland than it does to Penn State. With Ohio State on deck and Rutgers to finish the season, the Terps could reach eight wins for the first time in a decade, but they’ll have to upset Penn State if they’re going to do so.

Tagovailoa is probably the second-best quarterback Penn State will face this year, but after getting injured against Indiana a few weeks back, he didn’t look the same in his return last week, throwing for just 77 yards and completing less than 50 percent of his passes against Wisconsin. Rakim Jarrett also left the game last week, although it sounds like those close to Maryland expect him to give it a go Saturday.

Getting off to a fast start will be important in this one. Maryland’s defense allowed Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue and Indiana to all score 17 points in the first half the past four weeks. Penn State should be able to do that or more.

With that said, I’ve been picking this game as Penn State’s last chance to get tripped up potentially. I’m going to pick the Lions to win, but I think this could be a bit closer than they prefer. We’ve seen this defensive front give up big plays on the ground at times. I think Roman Hemby could give them problems.

Penn State: 28

Maryland: 24