Penn State-Maryland predictions: How college football experts, computer data systems are picking Lions-Terrapins

Penn State is a 10.5-point favorite for Saturday’s showdown with Maryland. The Lions own a commanding 41-3-1 lead in the all-time series and are 7-2 this season, while the Terps are 6-3 and have only ever won twice inside Beaver Stadium. However, both victories have come within the last nine years.

Rain is not expected to be a factor. But, the wind might be. The betting total is set at 59.5 points. Head coach James Franklin’s side could be down starters along the offensive line and at linebacker due to injury. Mike Locksley’s side, meanwhile, is listing star receiver Rakim Jarrett as a game-time decision.

Franklin has been happy with how his team’s depth players have performed so far. They will likely need to step up again this week.

“I think it’s been good, but obviously it’s been needed, as well, and I think that’s also a major differentiator in college football, is depth, because you’re going to deal with it,” Franklin said Tuesday. “Everybody is.

“Your second-line players, and your third-line players, better be good enough to win in the Big Ten with and beyond.”

Here’s how national and local experts, as well as computer data systems, are picking the Lions-Buckeyes matchup.

Computer model picks for Penn State-Maryland

At ESPN, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model has Penn State winning 33-22.

Sportsline sees it 34-21 in favor of the Nittany Lions.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 36-22 PSU triumph.

Finally, The Dunkle Index projects a 15-point Penn State victory.

Lions-Terrapins predictions from a national perspective

Mock expounded on his Penn State pick as one of his best bets this week for The Athletic. He writes:

“I don’t love the spot here as Penn State is off a blowout win and Maryland is off a blowout loss, but anything up to 11 is good here. Sean Clifford is going to break the Penn State all-time passing record in this one and we are going to live in his glory. Also, I’m not sure Taulia Tagovailoa is playing at 100% after last week’s performance. You’ll need to shop around as there are some 12/12.5’s out there, but some bigger sportsbooks still have 10.5 posted.”

At Bleacher Report, Ben Shepard sees a 30-21 Lions victory.

“Had this game been a week ago, I may have picked the Terrapins to pull an upset, even though this one is in Happy Valley,” Shepard writes. “But after last weekend’s 23-10 loss to Wisconsin in which it got pushed around, Maryland doesn’t look ready to compete with the big boys in the Big Ten.

“This will be closer than some expect, but the Lions will pull away late at home.”

James Parks at Sports Illustrated, then, calls for a 36-23 Penn State win.

Finally, Bill Bender at Sporting News predicts a Lions win and cover by a 34-21 margin.

Beat writers pick Penn State-Maryland

We’ll start with Mark Wogenrich of AllPennState. He sees a 34-17 Lions win on the horizon.

“Even with its injury issues, Penn State has a deeper roster and a defense that matches Maryland’s pass-game strength,” Wogenrich writes. “[Chop] Robinson will make the pocket uncomfortable for Tagovailoa, and Penn State’s secondary should contribute at least one interception. Even a game-management day from Sean Clifford gets the Lions to a double-digit win.”

The team at PennLive, meanwhile, all picked Penn State, with four of five expecting a cover. That includes guest picker Emily Giambalvo from The Washington Post.

“Since joining the Big Ten, the Terps have never beaten a ranked conference opponent, and that won’t change this weekend,” Giambalvo writes.

“The environment will be difficult for Maryland, and this team still makes too many mistakes to be competitive against the conference’s top teams. I think Penn State will win comfortably.”

Finally, three of four pickers from The Daily Collegian expect a Nittany Lions cover, and all picked them to win.

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Terrapins

Nate Bauer: Penn State 31, Maryland 16
Thomas Frank Carr: PSU 38, UMD 21
Sean Fitz: Penn State 27, Maryland 13
Matt Herb: PSU 31, UMD 21
Greg Pickel: Penn State 35, Maryland 21
Ryan Snyder: PSU 28, UMD 24