Penn State-Maryland predictions: How college football experts, computer data systems are picking the game

Penn State has been a favorite all week over Maryland. However, the number has dropped throughout the week. It opened at 10.5 points. Now, it’s down to 8.5. The No. 11 Nittany Lions (7-1) and Terrapins (5-3) meet Saturday at 3:30 p.m. on FOX. Will head coach James Franklin’s program cover the number? The Lions aim to do so while playing better than they did in last week’s win over Indiana.

“It’s a long season,” Franklin said Wednesay. “You’re not going to dominate every single week. You got to find ways to win, however you do it. And then you got to learn from the wins and you got to learn from the challenges, and you got to learn from the setbacks and be very honest and transparent with yourself and your team.

“But I also think it’s important to put in perspective; every Sunday, I put up on a PowerPoint slide, I never come in and say it to you guys, because I think if I say those things, it’s going to be looked at as a slight to another program, which I don’t mean it as. But, I think there were three programs this week ranked in the top 17 in the country that lost to unranked opponents. And then when we don’t play as well, people think we should, but still win, I’m not going to get into that. I’m not going to apologize for winning.”

Here’s how national and local experts, plus computer data systems, are picking the game.

Computer model picks for Penn State-Maryland

At ESPN, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 28-20 Nittany Lions victory.

Over at Sports Line, the Lions are projected to win and cover, 31-20.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock has the Buckeyes winning 31-19.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Lions a 83.1 percent chance of winning.

And, The Dunkle Index projects a 22.5-point margin of victory for Penn State and an under call with a total points projection of 48.

How are national writers picking Lions-Terrapins?

At Sporting News, Bill Bender predicts a Penn State win and cover by a 31-13 final.

“Penn State had a scare from Indiana,” Bender writes. “Maryland is stuck on a three-game losing streak after starting 5-0. The Terps have two chances to make statements in home games against Penn State and Michigan. The Nittany Lions are 7-2 S/U against Maryland since they joined the Big Ten, and they will not be looking ahead to Michigan.”

Athlon Sports has three people picking every top-25 game. All selected Penn State to beat Maryland.

For College Football News, Pete Fiutak picks a 30-20 Nittany Lions victory.

“Penn State still isn’t throwing it well enough to matter,” Fiutak writes. “It was considered a big deal when Drew Allar finally connected on a few big throws against Indiana, but that hasn’t been the norm. The Nittany Lions will get to 200 yards through the air, but … dink … dunk … dink. Maryland should be able to get to 250 if Tagovailoa gets time to work. On the flip side, the Terp pass rush will be in Allar’s face a bit too much to do a ton of deep shots.

“Penn State’s run defense won’t allow a thing, the Terps will turn it over twice, and it’ll be an underwhelming result for both sides looking to get the mojo back.”

National college football writer Stewart Mandel of The Athletic calls for a 24-10 Nittany Lions triumph.

“This looked like a potential upset before the season, and should be more so now given Penn State’s anemic offense, but man, the Terps have disappointed,” Mandel writes. “After starting 5-1, with a 37-17 loss to Ohio State, Maryland has lost to Illinois and Northwestern in back-to-back weeks. Surely the Nittany Lions can move the ball on these guys.”

What are local beat writers predicting?

Frank Bodani of the York Daily Record has one of the bigger point spread calls out there. He sees a 34-13 Penn State triumph.

“The 7-1 Nittany Lions are in desperate need of the proper tuning and recovery to prepare for one last season-defining effort in two weeks,” Bodani writes. “Has quarterback Drew Allar finally freed himself from the tightening burden of avoiding turnovers and mistakes? Can the banged-up offensive line steel itself for the final push? Will the stellar defense grow from first-time blunders last week?

“Maryland, once again, seems like a good place to find answers.”

PennLive’s five-man regular crew of prognosticators all picked a Nittany Lion win and cover.

“I, like a lot of people, thought Indiana would be a get-right game and a blowout for Penn State,” Johnny McGonigal writes in calling for a 30-17 Lions win. “That didn’t happen. So it’s difficult to sit here and say the Nittany Lions, with their stop-start offense, will run away with this one. Tagovailoa has the weapons in Jeshaun Jones and Kaden Prather to make it close. But I think Kaytron Allen, Nick Singleton and the running game, coupled with a takeaway or two, get it done. “

Last but not least, the staff of The Daily Collegian call for a Penn State win and cover unanimously, as well.

How is the Blue-White Illustrated staff picking the game?

Nate Bauer: Penn State 27, Maryland 24
Sean Fitz: PSU 30, Maryland 17
Thomas Frank Carr: Penn State 26, Maryland 21
Matt Herb: PSU 31, Maryland 24
Greg Pickel: Penn State 28, Maryland 17
Ryan Snyder: PSU 31, Maryland 21