Penn State-Maryland predictions: How computer data systems, college football experts, see the game

No. 4 Penn State is a four score favorite for today’s 3:30 p.m. ET matchup with Maryland on Big Ten Network. The point spread sits at 24.5 points, while the over/under betting total is 50.5. According to OddsShark, the Lions are 18-2 in their last 20 home games when favored by that much but are just 9-11 against the spread. Will they cover it this week?

Our weekly picks roundup gives you one final, comprehensive look at what data systems and experts believe before kickoff. And, as always, be sure to check your sportsbook of choice for any line changes, and remember to play responsibly!

Computer model picks for Penn State-Maryland

ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 40-9 win for the Lions. That would equal a Penn State cover and the under.

Sportsline sees a 38-16 win for the Lions. That’s a pick for a Maryland cover and the over.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 38-14 PSU win. That’s another pick for a Terrapins cover and a pick for the over.

Finally, The Dunkel Index projects a 27.5-point Lions win. It likes the under, as it calls for 47 total points in the contest.

Lions-Terrapins picks from a national perspective

Bill Bender of The Sporting News calls for a 38-10 Nittany Lions triumph on Senior Day. It’s a pick for PSU to cover while the under this.

“Penn State can clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff here, and the Nittany Lions might even get a home game,” Bender writes. “Maryland is stuck in a four-game losing streak, but they are 3-3 ATS as an underdog and hung around against Oregon on Nov. 23. Drew Allar has a 77.3% completion percentage with five TDs and no interceptions the last three games. It’s a lot of points, but Penn State finds a way to cover late.”

At Bleacher Report, David Kenyon has it 36-17 in favor of Penn State. That would be a Maryland cover and is also a pick for the over.

“Perhaps lost in the mayhem of several SEC upsets is that Penn State clipped Minnesota by a point,” Kenyon writes. “Because of that victory, though, the Nittany Lions are basically locked into the CFP picture, too. There won’t be any doubt if Penn State topples a reeling Maryland team.”

For NBC Sports, Vaughn Dalzell has the Lions to cover from start to finish.

“I like Penn State to cover the first quarter, first half and full game spreads here on Senior Day at home against Maryland,” he writes. “For Penn State, they celebrate the seniors on Saturday, then prepare for a College Football Playoff contest that likely puts them as a top-seven seed. Penn State wants to get a build, win and get out, healthy. I like Penn State to cover the first quarter -6.5, first half of -13.5, and the full game of -24.5.”

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-Maryland

At PennLive, its four-man coverage team is unanimous in picking the Lions to win and cover.

“Maryland receiver Tai Felton is good enough to do some damage,” Johnny McGonigal writes in picking a 41-6 Nittany Lions triumph. “But outside of Felton, the Terps don’t have the horses to threaten Penn State. Warren, the ground game, a collection of sacks and a couple turnovers turn this into a rout.”

At the Centre Daily Times, Jon Sauber picks it 38-7 in favor of the home team.

“There is almost no chance Penn State loses this game, and I tend to think they go up early and stay up,” he writes. “The Nittany Lions have a significant talent advantage and a significant coaching advantage and those things should help them get the job done and clinch their first playoff berth. This game feels like it will be more of a celebration than a competition.”

Frank Bodani picks it 52-13 in favor of the Lions for the York Daily Record.

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Terrapins

Nate Bauer: PSU: 34, Maryland: 13
Sean Fitz: PSU: 42, UMD: 10
Thomas Frank Carr: PSU: 34, Maryland: 10
Matt Herb: PSU: 34, UMD: 14
Greg Pickel: PSU: 49, Maryland: 14
Ryan Snyder: PSU: 48, UMD: 10