Penn State-Maryland Predictions: Will the Nittany Lions cover and lock up a CFP spot Saturday?

No team would’ve benefitted from a 12-team playoff more than Penn State over the years. Now, in the first year of its expansion, the Nittany Lions are one win away from securing not only a spot in the playoff but a home game in the first round. Their opponent to clinch couldn’t be more fitting, as head coach James Franklin and his team need a win over Maryland – the program that originally made Franklin its head coach in waiting – to clinch that spot.

Since taking over at Penn State in 2014, Franklin has led the Nittany Lions to an 8-2 record against the Terps, and many of those games have been similarly lopsided. Since 2016, Penn State’s seven wins against Maryland have come by an average score of 45 to 7. Last year’s result at College Park ended 51-15.

With Maryland already losing seven games this year, the Terps also don’t have much to play for. In 2024, Mike Locksley’s team has won just one game in the Big Ten, rallying from 21-7 down to beat USC with under a minute remaining at home. That win is the only thing separating them from Purdue at the bottom of the standings.

So, how will Saturday’s game play out? Our staff offers up their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season Record – 10-1)

Have no fear, Penn State fans. Maryland, the Nittany Lions’ final hurdle toward achieving a long-coveted College Football Playoff berth, is very bad at playing defense. Irrespective of virtually all of the Terrapins’ other qualities or shortcomings, this is the element that can and will create the conditions for the home team’s success on Saturday afternoon.

Granted, there is plenty of fodder to chew on for the Nittany Lions’ post-Thanksgiving tilt with the border school. The manufactured rivalry notwithstanding, Penn State will know the outcome of Ohio State’s game with Michigan at noon. Senior Day festivities can also generate some wonky irregularities in performance. Throw in the likely lethargic crowd at Beaver Stadium as students filter back into town and season-ticket holders might opt not to brave Saturday’s high of 30 degrees, and “bring your own juice might be especially applicable.” (Tickets can be had for $2 all over the stadium. Seriously.)

Even understanding all of those potential curveballs, will it matter if Maryland continues to play lackluster defense? The answer is no. The Terps haven’t held any opponent under 28 points since Villanova on Sept. 21, and shouldn’t be expected to change that trajectory this weekend. Even against a Penn State offense still working through its personnel limitations, made worse by Anthony Donkoh’s season-ending injury last Saturday in Minneapolis, Maryland should be overwhelmed.

Penn State: 34
Maryland: 13

Sean Fitz (Season Record – 11-0)

The objective for Penn State is clear. Win, and this won’t be the last time the Nittany Lions play in Beaver Stadium this year. On the other side is a regional rival who would love nothing more to play spoiler to end a tumultuous season in College Park. Maryland has lost its last four and is 1-7 in the Big Ten. The Terps will play the backs-against-the-wall card and hope for the best.

The good news for Penn State is that the Terps’ best usually comes in September. Quarterback Billy Edwards has been in and out with injuries as he caps his first year as the heir to Taulia Tagovailoa. Maryland always has talent in spots, so it’s not a complete walkabout, but the Nittany Lions should clearly be the better side on Saturday. It will be cold, so how will Penn State respond? After ending the game on its own terms against Minnesota last weekend, the Nittany Lions should be feeling pretty good. Of course, this will be the week to get tuned up for the playoff for guys who must replace injured contributors like Anthony Donkoh and Alonzo Ford.

It’s been a disappointing year for Penn State running back Kaytron Allen, but this seems like the type of game that he could do some damage. His career high in yardage came at the end of last season against Michigan State and he totaled over 100 yards in the season finale in 2022. Maybe it’s nothing, but maybe it’s a trend? Who’s to say. Penn State needs to get in, get out, get warm and get on with it on Saturday against the Terps.

Penn State: 42
Maryland: 10

Thomas Frank Carr (Season Record – 10-1)

Penn State had to adapt its passing attack last week after right tackle Anthony Donkoh went down with a long-term injury on the second play. Given what we saw unfold after that point, it’s fair to speculate if the team would have performed better in the second half once it adapted its attack to help out Nolan Rucci in pass protection.

Part of me thinks that a similar situation will unfold this week despite Maryland’s obvious issues across the board. The team will need to be explosive on the ground and avoid obvious passing situations on third and long to avoid this game dragging out. Play-action and RPOs should be a big part of the game plan if the trend they’ve used before holds.

What I’m saying is that it might devolve into an uglier game than some might expect.

However, the team’s defensive unit should remain solid, and I’d expect a bounce-back performance after a somewhat unfocused effort early on from the defense as a whole and in the passing game overall.

Penn State: 34
Maryland: 10

Matt Herb (Season Record – 10-1)

Maryland boasts the most statistically productive passing attack in the Big Ten with an average of 289.6 yards per game, but starting quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. has been bothered by injuries, and he played on only four possessions against Iowa last week. With NC State transfer MJ Morris filling in, the Terrapins managed only 129 passing yards and fell 29-13 to the Hawkeyes, a defeat that eliminated them from bowl contention.

Terps coach Mike Locksley said earlier this week he wasn’t sure which of his quarterbacks would start the team’s season finale, but even if Edwards is healthy enough to open at QB, it’s tough to envision Penn State falling apart now that its long-cherished goal of earning a College Football Playoff berth is very much within its grasp. Iowa put plenty of heat on Edwards and Morris, finishing with three sacks and two hurries. Penn State is well-equipped to do likewise, and even though its offensive line won’t be at full strength, it’s got enough scoring punch to pull away from a Maryland team that is allowing just under 30 points per game, the league’s second-highest average.

Penn State: 34
Maryland: 14

Greg Pickel (Season Record – 11-0)

Penn State and Maryland find themselves in vastly different situations ahead of both teams’ regular-season finale at Beaver Stadium. The Terrapins have lost four in a row and cannot make a bowl game. The Nittany Lions are 10-1, a top-five team in the College Football Playoff rankings, and have the chance to put themselves in the best position possible for a first-round home game by beating the Terrapins handily on Saturday. 

Maryland has issues at quarterback. Billy Edwards is banged up but trying to play through it. MJ Morris is the backup for a reason but will be pressed into action if needed. It’s a problem for an offense that wants to do the majority of its damage through the air. The Terps’ defense is not very good, and when you combine all of this with a clear motivation edge for the hosts, it will lead to a resounding win for the Nittany Lions.

Penn State: 49
Maryland: 14

Ryan Snyder (Season Record – 11-0)

Maryland has struggled offensively in multiple areas this season. With one game to play, the Terps are currently ranked No. 113 out of 133 in rushing offense, averaging just 113.9 yards per game. They’re also 90th overall in scoring offense (25.2 average).

If you look at their overall passing offense, you’d think that they’re performing well, ranked No. 12 nationally, but when you’re constantly playing from behind, that’s misleading. The fact that they’re ranked No. 120 in passing yards per completion is the better way to measure their success this season. Now, the Terps have to face the best defense they’ve seen this season. They also have injuries at quarterback and have very little to play for.

But Maryland has also struggled defensively, allowing 29.18 points per game this season, good for 95th in the nation. When you consider that this offense scored 51 against Maryland last year and has scored at least 30 points in every win since 2016, I expect a similar blowout Saturday. Franklin has also proven that he’ll keep his foot on the gas a bit longer in this game compared to others.

Penn State: 48
Maryland: 10