Penn State vs. Maryland Predictions: What should fans expect against the Terps?

Penn State will hit the road this weekend to face a Maryland squad that’s lost three straight in Big Ten play. Flashback to the beginning of October and it looked as if Mike Locksley’s team may pull off the biggest upset of his tenure, as the Terps led Ohio State on the road early in the third quarter. However, it all went downhill after that, as Maryland allowed 27 unanswered to the Buckeyes to ultimately lose 37-17.

That loss has lingered longer than Locksley and his staff would’ve hoped. The following week, the Terps outplayed Illinois for most of the game, but with under two minutes to play, the Illini were able to drive the ball 50 yards to convert a game-winning field goal as time expired. Then, following a bye week, the Terps hit a new low, losing to Northwestern last Saturday.

Those losses have dampened the hype around this weekend’s game, but James Franklin and his team can’t come into this one expecting the Terps to roll over. Statistically, Penn State has dominated its series against Maryland, winning 42 of 46 games. However, two of Maryland’s three wins in this series have come in the past decade. The Nittany Lions won 31-14 the last time these two played in College Park in 2021. Penn State shut out the Terps last year, winning 30-0 during a rainy game in Beaver Stadium.

So what should fans expect on Saturday? Our staff offers its predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season: 7-1)

I would be ready to predict Penn State taking its finish to the Indiana game and using it as a big boost into the final month of the regular season. But, then I remember that the Nittany Lions haven’t looked good all season on the road. And, then I remember that wide receiver Trey Wallace is almost certainly going to be out of action after his injury against the Hoosiers. Combined with what was an undeniably shaky defensive performance against Indiana, and what might have looked like a sizable advantage for Penn State – particularly in light of Maryland’s three consecutive losses – now that doesn’t seem so assured.

Will all of those situations derail Penn State’s path back to having its second do-or-die game on the schedule next weekend against Michigan? I don’t think so. Drew Allar showed some good things last week and, should the Nittany Lions want to create a ball control type of grind-it-out game, the Terrapins seem to be the right matchup. They’re ranked 13th in the Big Ten in first downs allowed this season and 10th in time of possession.

Still, even with a much-improved overall showing, Penn State will likely find itself in another close game this weekend.

Penn State: 27
Maryland: 24

Sean Fitz (Season: 7-1)

Maryland is reeling, having lost three straight games entering Saturday. The last two were particularly eye-opening, as the Terps lost to Illinois and Northwestern with a bye sandwiched in between. That said, is form really important when taking into consideration the matchups for this weekend? Penn State usually gets Maryland’s best, or one of its best, shots of the season. So I don’t really buy into Maryland completely falling apart after a 5-0 start for that reason. The Terps can also put up points, which has been a sticking point as of late for the Nittany Lions. They’ve also started several games strong. Penn State has not.

A lot of the matchups favor the Nittany Lions. Penn State is better up front and needs to pressure Taulia Tagovailoa on Saturday. He was sacked just three times in Maryland’s first five starts, all wins. In the last three games, all losses, he was brought down 11 times, including six last weekend against Northwestern. The Nittany Lions need to keep the talented signal-caller in front of them in the pocket and then finish the job. To go with those 11 sacks, he’s also thrown three interceptions. On the back end, Penn State’s secondary has shown some vulnerability over the last two weeks.

But unsurprisingly, this will come down to Penn State’s offense. The Nittany Lions were able to make a play late last week down the field to get something to take away from the win over Indiana. While that probably won’t spur some memorable offensive explosion, it would be nice to see Allar playing a little looser back there. If Penn State is the aggressor, good things can happen.

Penn State: 30
Maryland: 17

Thomas Frank Carr (Season: 7-1)

It’s impossible to predict what an unpredictable person may do. Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovialoa has reduced his season-killing decisions to a degree, but he’s still a risk-taker. He’s athletic enough to challenge defensive contain, and he has an NFL-level arm to place the ball in tight windows downfield.

The question this week isn’t whether the defense will bust multiple coverages again, which I don’t expect; it’s whether or not Tagovailoa will play up to his highest potential. A healthy Chop Robinson would help Penn State create a situation where the bad plays outnumber the good ones. Not only is Robinson an elite pass rusher, but he’s an underrated and selfless run defender. In fact, Robinson’s injury came on a play where he met a pulling guard head-on in the backfield.

For the Penn State offense, they need to bottle that energy they had against Indiana from a passing game perspective. Maryland’s defensive front is stout, and its scheme takes away inside running lanes with a three-down look inside. Penn State rarely adjusts away from its zone schemes, so I expect a war inside. Mike Yurcich will throw in a supporting run scheme like counter or pin and pull, but it’ll likely be a steady diet of the outside zone and base running plays.

That means Allar and his depleted receiving corps will need to play more consistently than they did against Indiana. While Allar had a good day from a production standpoint, he’ll need to prove he has poise on the road, which has been an issue.

In the end, I think Penn State will get it done. The matchups say it’ll be a close, hard-fought game unless Maryland gives Penn State the ball repeatedly.

Penn State: 26
Maryland: 21

Matt Herb (Season: 8-0)

Trey Wallace’s injury couldn’t have happened at a worse time for Penn State. It thins out a position group that was already lacking in reliable playmakers, and now PSU is headed into a tough stretch, with Maryland, Michigan and Rutgers having compiled a 19-5 record between them this season.

Even if the receiver corps were fully healthy, it would be fair to wonder whether the Nittany Lions have enough offense to pull away from any Big Ten opponent right now. PSU’s past six wins over Maryland have all been by 17 points or more, but I could see Saturday’s game being decided the same way last week’s game was decided. Penn State made one more big play than Indiana did and managed to escape with a hard-fought victory.

Given PSU’s recent struggles — primarily on offense but also on defense vs. the Hoosiers — it’s tempting to pick an upset this week. But the Terps are reeling, having lost three in a row, including to two of the West Division’s weaker teams, Illinois and Northwestern. I think their losing streak will grow to four in a row, but this game won’t be nearly as lopsided as the past few meetings between the Terps and Nittany Lions.

Penn State: 31
Maryland: 24

Greg Pickel (Season: 8-0)

Penn State starts November with its penultimate road trip of the regular season. The Nittany Lions have dominated this series for years. There have not been many competitive games in College Park, either. Will this year be different?

The argument for the answer to that question being yes is that the Lions have shown they’re not capable of exploding for quick scoring drives that quickly put distance between themselves and their opponent. And, Maryland has enough of a quick-trigger offense to be able to potentially match long Penn State scoring drives with quick points of their own. This is one of the best defenses the Terrapins will face, however. The Lions cannot afford to blow secondary assignments this week as they did a few times in last weekend’s win over Indiana.

Put it all together, and this is a winnable game that Penn State should be able to take by double digits and cover. But the offense just inspires such little confidence to feel overly confident about that happening. However, Maryland has made costly mistakes that have led to a three-game losing streak. The prediction here is that those keep happening, and those allow the Lions to skip away late.

Penn State: 28
Maryland: 17

Ryan Snyder (Season: 7-1)

If there’s one thing Maryland has been consistent at this season it’s putting up points. Aside from the Ohio State game, they’ve scored at least three touchdowns against every other opponent. The issue in recent weeks is that Maryland’s defense has failed to get stops when it mattered most, allowing 27 points against Illinois and 33 against Northwestern.

Penn State also hasn’t played its best football in recent weeks, which in some ways makes this game even more intriguing. That’s especially true when you consider this is a look-ahead spot with Michigan coming to town on Nov. 11.

Turnovers will likely be crucial in this one. That’s what doomed the Terps against Northwestern. Now, they’ll face a Penn State squad that has the best turnover margin in the nation through the first two months of the season.

Tagovailoa can make plays with his feet, and that will likely present a challenge, but after allowing six sacks against Northwestern, PSU’s defensive front should have success if they can keep him bottled up.

I expect Penn State’s offense to not make major mistakes, with the defense forcing a turnover or two. It’ll likely be closer than Nittany Lion fans would like in the second half, but I still expect Penn State to win.

Penn State: 31
Maryland: 21