Penn State-Michigan Predictions: Can Lions upset Wolverines on the road?

Penn State heads to Ann Arbor Saturday for its biggest game of the season so far, as the Nittany Lions square off against Michigan in a showdown between top-10 teams.

The Wolverines are 18-2 since Jim Harbaugh retooled his coaching staff following the 2020 season, with both losses coming against Top 10 teams at the time in Michigan State and Georgia.

The Nittany Lions had an opportunity to beat Michigan at home last season, leading the game 17-14 with less than five minutes to play. A mistake in coverage though allowed QB Cade McNamara to find TE Erick All for a 47-yard touchdown to keep Michigan’s playoff dreams alive. Penn State went four and out the following drive and was unable to stop the Wolverines from running out the clock.

Since James Franklin took over the program in 2014, Michigan holds a slight edge over Penn State, winning four of the seven matchups. The Nittany Lions did get a win in Ann Arbor in 2020, albeit with no fans in attendance. You have to go back to 2009 to find Penn State’s last win with 100,000-plus fans inside The Big House.

Franklin is 1-8 against teams ranked fifth or better since taking over the program and 7-11 overall when both teams rank among the Top 20 in the nation. These marquee games have been difficult for the Nittany Lions over the years, and sportsbooks believe that’ll once again be the case with Michigan currently a seven-point favorite.

How does our staff believe the game will shake out? Check out our predictions below.

Related: New Penn State pick on the On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Nate Bauer (Season: 5-0; Last Game: 38-10 PSU)

Having a strong sense about how this game will go seems, to me, premature. Five of Michigan’s six opponents have scoring offenses ranked among the worst in college football this season. Four of Michigan’s opponents also have some of the worst defenses in college football this season. 

Penn State, meanwhile, has a couple of nice wins at Purdue and at Auburn on its resume, lending credence to the notion that environment shouldn’t be an overwhelming factor. But, the Nittany Lion defense hasn’t been tested by anything resembling Michigan’s versatility, and offensively, underwhelming showings in back-to-back games should create questions. 

Where does that leave the outcome? Both defenses should have advantages against these respective offenses. Otherwise, I see a mostly even game with a splash turnover or big run dictating the outcome for either side. In this case, given some of Penn State’s cracks and recent history in these types of games, the home team gets the nod.

Michigan: 27

Penn State: 24

Thomas Frank Carr (Season: 5-0; Last Game: 35-10 PSU)

Penn State and Michigan are incredibly similar teams in many different aspects. Both are focused on running the ball with explosive running backs to set the tone for the offense. They both are struggling to find consistency in the deep passing game and have defenses that play the pass very well. Even down to the linebackers being a weakness, these teams mirror one another in many ways. 

In the end Michigan has more experience at running back and has been more consistent in gaining explosive plays with Blake Corum. JJ McCarthy has been playing a better brand of football compared to Sean Clifford as well. However, McCarthy is young and will be tested by the best defense he’s faced this year. Which quarterback will deliver and which will make a critical mistake? 

It’s down to the wire in this one and because they’re at home, I’ll give Michigan the edge. This is truly a pick ’em game.

Michigan: 28

Penn State: 24

Related: Deep group of linebacker recruits set to attend Penn State’s White Out game

Sean Fitz (Season: 5-0; Last Game: 35-10 PSU)

These days in college football it’s so tough to identify actual quality, even if you have a month of games as a sample size to work with. Is Penn State good? Maybe. They’ve certainly shown elements of being a very good team at times this year. They also have a few moments that have left fans scratching their heads.

You could probably say the same about Michigan. Yes, the Wolverines do a lot of things well, but are they as good as last year’s College Football Playoff squad? I don’t think so, and I’m not sure that they are that close at this point. Their schedule so far hasn’t helped in regards to trying to figure out this riddle. Maybe the imperfection is what makes college football so fun to follow up and so frustrating to try to figure out. 

Penn State’s record in recent years after the bye has warranted some changes to the world in the off week. Will it change the result? Impossible to tell. What I do think is that Penn State is much better suited to give the Wolverines problems upfront than they were a year ago. That in itself should make it another close game.

On the road, however, the Nittany Lions will need more out of its quarterback and wide receiver play than it has gotten to date this fall. They’ll need a next level performance from either Parker Washington or Mitchell Tinsley – a true No. 1 performance – to put the pressure on the Wolverines. While I think the Nittany Lions are capable of pulling off the upset, it just seems as though they’ll need a more complete team performance than we’ve seen recently. 

Michigan: 24

Penn State: 17

Matt Herb (Season: 5-0; Last Game: 31-14 PSU)

Michigan is 35th in the FBS with a 45.5 percent third-down conversion rate. Penn State is 103rd at 33.8 percent. I could see that being one of the key factors on Saturday, maybe the key factor. Michigan is good at using the running game to stay on schedule, creating advantageous down-and-distance situations for J.J. McCarthy — hence the quarterback’s FBS-best 78.3 percent completion rate.

Penn State has been feast-or-famine on the ground, putting Sean Clifford in some tough spots at times. If it happens again in Ann Arbor, if PSU must repeatedly call on Clifford to convert on third-and-long, it’s going to play right into the hands of a Michigan defense that leads the Big Ten in sacks. 

I’d feel better about this matchup if Penn State had put the hammer down on its last two opponents. Maybe that was never going to happen against Northwestern because of the dismal field conditions, but the Nittany Lions scored fewer points against Central Michigan than South Alabama and Toledo did. I just don’t see PSU mustering enough offense this week to get a road win over a top-five opponent. 

Michigan: 28

Penn State: 17

Related: Top tight end target set to return to Penn State next weekend

Greg Pickel (Season: 5-0; Last Game: 42-10 Penn State)

These are the kind of games that make or break the season-long race for the best prediction record. However, I’m going to go in the direction I doubt many of my colleagues nationally and locally will go and pick Penn State to win.

It’s true that Michigan is a very good football team that is deserving of its top-10 billing, just as Penn State is. However, this feels like a low-scoring contest where one mistake by the offense sets the opponent up with a short enough field to score late and win. With the way the Lions’ defense has been getting their hands on the football and causing turnovers, I think it’ll ultimately help lead a James Franklin-coached Penn State team to its first win in front of fans at ‘The Big House” since 2020 had no spectators.

Penn State: 21

Michigan: 17

Ryan Snyder (Season: 5-0; Last Game: 38-13 PSU)

I’m going to ride with Greg here and pick Penn State.

I think first and foremost, Penn State has been challenged a bit more so far this year compared to Michigan. Purdue is a pretty good football team, and while Auburn is certainly having a down year, both teams are better than anyone Michigan has played so far. That’ll have the Lions feeling confident in this one, even if they get down early.

Penn State usually plays up to its competition, too, and when I look back at last year’s game, I think they have the talent to stick with the Wolverines. The key to this one will be PSU’s defensive line. Michigan will want to set the tone with its ground game to take the pressure off JJ McCarthy. PSU’s interior defensive line will be crucial. If they play their gaps consistently, it’ll force McCarthy to make plays.

Michigan’s defense has talent, but Maryland is the only respectable offense they’ve faced so far. The Terps exposed some weaknesses that afternoon, too. Maryland could’ve absolutely won that game.

I think Penn State exposes those same issues and walks out of ‘The Big House’ with a massive win. I think it’ll be a bit more high scoring than my colleagues, too, falling right around the O/U number of 52.

Penn State: 28

Michignan: 24