Penn State-Michigan predictions: Can the Lions make it two in a row and beat the Wolverines?

Penn State is riding a two-game winning streak against Michigan.

Will the Nittany Lions make it three in a row on Saturday opposite the Wolverines?

Kickoff is set for Noon at Beaver Stadium, and ABC will televise the contest.

Who will leave this Big Ten East tussle victorious? The Blue-White Illustrated staff makes its predictions below.

Nate Bauer (7-2)

This might be the toughest pick of the year, in my mind.

Mostly, that’s because I can only envision this as a tight game. For as well as Michigan has played this season on both sides of the ball, and for whatever perception might exist of Penn State since October, the general proposition seems clear:

Whether it’s Michigan’s rushing game proficiency, or Penn State’s defensive proclivity for stopping it, points are going to come at a premium. If either side hits 30, I’d be pretty surprised.

Which one will emerge with the win? With absolutely no conviction, I’ll pick the hosts in a virtual pick ’em.

Penn State 24

Michigan 23

Greg Pickel (7-2)

Penn State is a slight favorite according to some oddsmakers prior to kickoff. Others have it as a slight underdog. Regardless, it won’t be a surprise if this game ends up as a pick ’em in the betting markets by kickoff. It feels like a true toss-up.

Michigan has yet to face a defense like Penn State’s, but the Nittany Lions’ offense has sputtered at times in 2021 and has yet to get its rushing game going nine games into the season.

The home team has won five of seven games between these two sides since 2014, but I don’t see that trend continuing this weekend. Michigan will move the ball just well enough to earn a lead, and its pass rush will keep Sean Clifford and the Lions’ offense in check to earn a road win.

Michigan 27

Penn State 20

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David Eckert (6-3)

This game excites me because it involves two of the very best defenses in college football. Both surrender around 4.6 yards per play, which is in the top 15 nationally, and each team ranks in the top-10 in the country in scoring defense. These are two formidable units and, to me, the onus is going to be on the offenses to determine this game’s outcome.

That’s why I’m picking Michigan. Looking at the total yardage numbers, the Nittany Lions rank 7th in the Big Ten averaging 384.1 yards per game. Their yards per play numbers are less kind, well within the nation’s bottom third. Michigan averages 451.4 yards per game on offense and 6.3 yards per play — good for 28th in the country. Clearly, the Wolverines are the more efficient team. We have a nine-game sample size to see that now. Plus, their offense isn’t one-dimensional as Penn State’s is. Their total yardage this season is split nearly 50/50 between the run and the pass.

I think it’ll be close, but give me the Wolverines in a nail-biter.

Michigan 20

Penn State 17

Matt Herb (7-2)

The most worrisome aspect of this game is the possibility that Clifford will be asked to throw the ball 40-50 times. If you give Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo that many opportunities, they are going to create some havoc. Ball security is going to be especially important this week. Turnovers are often the decisive factor in games between two evenly matched teams, and Ojabo in particular is great at separating QBs from the football.  

Having said that, Penn State will be bringing a pretty solid defense of its own into this game. The most points the Nittany Lions’ defense has given up this year has been 26 to Ohio State. If PSU can avoid the kind of turnovers that proved costly against the Buckeyes, it can keep this game in the 20s, and that’s the kind of game it can win.

You can make a compelling case for either team, but ultimately, Michigan has a more complete offense than Penn State. This is one of those games in which the Lions’ over-reliance on the passing attack is going to put them at a disadvantage. They’ve found some workarounds in other games, but I think their ineffectiveness on the ground is going to prove costly this week.  

Michigan 24

Penn State 21

Ryan Snyder (6-3)

Man, this one is tough. A true pick ’em.

The one positive here is that, when Penn State has been playing top teams this year, they’ve come to play. Iowa would’ve been a win if Clifford doesn’t go down, and they played one of their best games, in my opinion, against Ohio State.

I expect that trend to hold true on Saturday. The Nittany Lions have also won three of the past four in this series, including their best win of the season last year.

However, this Michigan squad is a different animal compared to 2020. Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum are playing at a very high level. For the most part, Penn State has played the run pretty well overall, but that Illinois game still scars me. Why would Michigan not use a similar plan of attack Saturday? Penn State doesn’t have the depth along the defensive line or at linebacker. I think they feel they have to keep their defensive backs out there.

Also, Hutchinson and Ojabo will absolutely cause some problems for Caedan Wallace and Rasheed Walker. They have protected Clifford pretty well in passing downs, but this is easily the best duo they’ve faced this season.

Without a run game, it’s hard for me to pick Penn State in this one. I also just don’t want Nate to have a better record than me this year, so I have to pick the opposite. Don’t judge me.

Michigan 24

Penn State 21