Penn State-Michigan predictions: How college football experts, computer data systems are picking the game

No. 10 Penn State is an underdog against No. 3 Michigan. The Wolverines are 4.5-point favorites for Saturday’s meeting at Beaver Stadium. And, the game that will start at Noon ET on FOX has an points total over/under of 45.5.

“It’s huge,” FOX analyst Urban Meyer said on the Urban’s Take with Tim May podcast for Lettermen’s Row. “They won the Big Ten Championship in 2016, and really since then, he’s had so many close calls. It’s interesting, the fanbase at Penn State, they are incredible. You know how I feel about the White Out and the student body and all that. But it’s almost like, have they accepted the fact that in the last few years, they’re number three in the Big Ten East? That’s not Penn State and I don’t believe Coach Franklin has, but they have to at some point — first of all, it’s one of the top programs in college football history, Penn State. It’s got all the resources. It’s got everything.”

Here’s how data systems and experts are picking the game.

Computer model picks for Penn State-Michigan

At ESPN, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 27-21 Wolverines victory.

Over at Sports Line, the Lions are projected to win and cover, 27-26

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock has the Wolverines winning and covering, 25-19.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Lions a 50.4 percent chance of winning.

And, The Dunkle Index projects a 2-point margin of victory for Penn State and an over call with a total points projection of 54.

How are national writers picking Lions-Wolverines?

For the Sporting News, Bill Bender predicts a Michigan win, 21-17.

“The Wolverines finally get a test against a ranked team, and the Nittany Lions have one more chance to get in the Big Ten East race,” Bender writes. “Drew Allar (20 TDs, 1 INT) will need to take more chances against Michigan than he did against Ohio State, and the Wolverines will need more out of the running game on the road given they’ve averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry the last three weeks. J.J. McCarthy will come up clutch late in a tight Big Ten thriller that resembles the 2021 matchup.”

At USA Today, four of the outlet’s six pickers predict Michigan to win. The Athletic staff was four-for-four in seeing a Wolverines road in, as well.

“There are certainly some circumstances for an upset at play here — Michigan’s finally facing its first formidable foe, the chaos surrounding that program and Penn State’s home-field advantage,” Stewart Mandel writes for The Athletic. “The Nittany Lions’ previously ho-hum offense also exploded last week against Maryland. But, there’s also this: Penn State just doesn’t win games like this.”

At College Football News, Pete Fiutak picks a 26-19 Michigan win over Penn State.

“It would’ve been more fun if this was night game, but emotion won’t be a problem for this,” Fiutak writes. “How do you calm all of that down? You hammer away. Penn State has the lines to hold up, and Allar will connect on an early downfield pass to get everyone all fired up, and then Michigan will do what it does as it methodically keeps on producing.

“It will hardly be easy, but a good balance, a decent day from McCarthy, and a wonderful performance by the Wolverine front five will push on through.”

How are beat writers picking Penn State-Michigan?

At PennLive, two of the outlet’s five regular pickers are on the Nittany Lions to win. Four of five predict a Penn State cover despite a Michigan win. Guest picker from Aaron McCann from MLive sees it 20-17 in favor of Saturday’s visitors.

“This will undoubtedly be Michigan’s toughest test to date, making it difficult to project how the Wolverines do with their backs against the wall,” McCann writers. “Two years ago it took Michigan a fourth-quarter touchdown to pull away and win, and I’m expecting a similar result on Saturday. The team that makes fewer mistakes and can pull out one more explosive play wins this game, and to me that favors the Wolverines.”

At SI, Max Ralph picks a 27-23 Penn State win. Mark Wogenrich, meanwhile, envisions a 20-16 triumph for the Wolverines.

“The Wolverines established their three-phase dominance against a mediocre schedule that hasn’t stressed them whatsoever,” Wogenrich writes. “The Lions will deliver that first test. Trouble is, it won’t be enough against J.J. McCarthy, that defense and a roster galvanized by being the villain du jour.”

All four pickers for The Daily Collegian sided with Michigan. For the York Daily Record, Frank Bodani predicts a 23-17 Wolverines win. And, for DKPittsburghSports, Cory Giger sees it Michigan 27, Penn State 17.

“The defense should keep Penn State in the game, but I don’t see the Lions forcing a bunch of turnovers or three-and-outs that set up the offense for easy scores,” Giger writes. Instead, I see Michigan getting some first downs and controlling field position, then if it has to punt, backing up PSU’s offense repeatedly and forcing the Lions to go the length of the field.

“As the game goes on, I see that taking a big toll on Penn State’s offense and defense.”

How the Blue-White Illustrated staff is picking the game

Nate Bauer: Michigan 24, Penn State 20
Sean Fitz: Michgian 27, PSU 17
Thomas Frank Carr: Michigan 27, PSU 23
Matt Herb: Michigan 27, Penn State 16
Greg Pickel: Penn State 21, Michigan 17
Ryan Snyder: PSU 23, Michigan 21