Penn State vs. Michigan Predictions: What should fans expect against the Wolverines?

Penn State will get another shot at a marquee win this weekend with all eyes on Beaver Stadium Saturday. With Michigan ranked No. 3 in the nation in the College Football Playoff Poll, the Nittany Lions are set for their second Top 10 showdown of the season.

The last time the Nittany Lions were in this spot it didn’t go well. Despite many picking them to upset Ohio State in Columbus last month, Penn State’s offense was completely shut down by the Buckeyes, infamously going just 1 for 16 on third down. It’s hard to see that happening at home, but this will be another massive test for Mike Yurcich, Drew Allar and the entire Nittany Lion offense. Michigan’s defense comes into this game ranking among the best nationally in multiple key statistics, including total defense (No. 1), rushing defense (No. 10), passing defense (No. 1) and scoring defense (No. 1).

With that said, the Wolverines also haven’t faced a team that comes close to Penn State’s overall skill and depth this season. Still, following back-to-back Big Ten championships, which included wins over the Nittany Lions the past two seasons, James Franklin and his team come into this game as 4.5-point underdogs at home.

All-time, Michigan leads the series with 16 wins compared to just 10 for Penn State. Since Franklin took over the program in 2014, the Wolverines are 6-3. Games at Beaver Stadium have been substantially closer than those in Ann Arbor, however, with the Lions winning two of the last three at home. They came close to upsetting Michigan at home in 2021 but ultimately allowed a late score with under four minutes to play to lose 21-17.

So how will Saturday’s game play out? Our staff offers up its predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season: 8-1)

Can Penn State beat Michigan on Saturday? Yes. Let’s start there, and let’s completely ignore the off-field controversy in the assessment. With or without Jim Harbaugh, and with or without distractions, this opponent is clearly one of the best the Nittany Lions will face this season and in the country.

The notion that the Wolverines are unbeatable seems, at this point, premature. Their strength of schedule is No. 111 nationally, according to ESPN’s FPI. That’s why when James Franklin talks about JJ McCarthy not being challenged to this point in the season, it’s with good reason. The Nittany Lions’ defense will be, by a considerable margin, the best the Wolverines will have seen. All of it sets up for an intriguing matchup of strength versus strength.

Where Penn State’s opportunity to win falls apart, however, is on the other side of the ball unless the Nittany Lions break character. Michigan consistently forces opponents into third down situations and punts. And, quarterback Drew Allar has not fared especially well under those circumstances, with his offensive line and pass protection playing into those results.

Setting up for a game similar to the one Penn State and Ohio State played a few weeks ago, it will take a significant improvement from the Nittany Lions’ offense that, Maryland performance aside, hasn’t been consistent enough to predict coming to fruition this weekend.

Michigan: 24
Penn State: 20

Sean Fitz (Season: 8-1)

Penn State’s offense should enter Saturday with more confidence after shelling Maryland last weekend. Will confidence breed competence, though? Last time out in a game of this magnitude, the Nittany Lions laid an egg. Penn State’s record in big games is what it is at this point, so once again the Nittany Lions will try to get the monkey off of their back with Michigan. 

The keys are similar to what we talked about with Ohio State three weeks ago and it starts with quarterback Drew Allar. Which one will we see on Saturday? Last weekend he was loose, confident and looked like the prospect we’ve seen flashes of over the first two months of the season. If the Nittany Lions can get that guy, they have a chance. After seeing the Nittany Lions’ offense in Columbus, however…

Defensively, Penn State should have this one circled after getting run out of the building last season at the Big House. However, the Wolverines aren’t just a one-dimensional entity that will ground and pound. JJ McCarthy is a legitimate threat as a passer and the Nittany Lions will need to get him off schedule. Penn State has had success against the Wolverines at home, so I’m expecting a close game on Saturday afternoon. 

Michigan: 28
Penn State: 17

Thomas Frank Carr (Season: 8-1)

If the Penn State offense plays with the freedom and confidence it did last weekend, this will be a great game. Quarterback Drew Allar saw the field very well and attacked both man and zone coverage effectively by finding the right player at the right moment. 

However, he won’t have as many clean pockets or as much time to throw as he did against Maryland. Michigan also doesn’t play kamikaze football, with excessive and predictable Cover 0 blitzes like Maryland. The offense will have to earn it through a hard slog of tight windows and a strong pass rush. 

Defensively, the Nittany Lions have shown that if they don’t get a good pass rush themselves, they’re vulnerable to getting gashed through the air. Against JJ McCarthy, the defensive line will need to get pressure but keep him from escaping unharassed. It’s a tall task for both units. Penn State should be the first team that can drag Michigan into deep water in the fourth quarter. 

But the likelihood is that Penn State won’t be able to knock Michigan off schedule enough on offense and they won’t stay on schedule enough themselves. Conservatively, this is a close game, but Michigan has an easier path to a comfortable victory. 

Michigan: 27
Penn State: 23

Matt Herb (Season: 9-0)

Penn State has been snakebit in the kind of high-stakes games that they’re about to play this weekend. They’ve had indispensable players get hurt (Iowa, 2021). They’ve seen flags fly at the worst possible moment (Minnesota, 2019; Ohio State, 2023). They’ve seen double-digit fourth-quarter leads disappear (Ohio State, 2017 and ’18), and they’ve seen their own second-half comeback bids fall short (Ohio State, 2019).

They have beaten Michigan a couple of times in Beaver Stadium since 2017, and in both games, the Wolverines came in nationally ranked. But neither of those previous Michigan teams had a likely first-round draft pick at quarterback, nor were they quite as sound up front on both sides of the ball as Michigan has been the past three seasons. Following Minnesota’s 52-10 loss to the Wolverines in October, P.J. Fleck said they were “truly like a boa constrictor, and they do not beat themselves. They are very good at each position.”

Away from the field, Michigan has been a three ring circus lately. But between the white lines, the Wolverines have been entirely drama-free, having won their first nine games by an average margin of 34 points. It’s going to take a great four-quarter effort for someone to beat them, and I’m not sure anyone in the Big Ten is capable of summoning what will be required.

Michigan: 27
Penn State: 16

Greg Pickel (Season: 9-0)

Most weeks, I feel pretty confident in my prediction. Could I be off by a touchdown one way or the other in terms of a final score? Of course (let’s just forget about that 56-0 prediction from the Indiana game), but more often than not, I feel great about picking the winner, at the very least. This week, my confidence level is suboptimal. Penn State and Michigan can and will match strength versus strength in a lot of different areas on both sides of the ball Saturday. We can talk about past versions of this game and problems the Lions had in them, but those don’t matter now.

This game comes down to execution, plain and simple. Who will make a key mistake at a critical moment that either leads to points or takes away a chance to get them? The winner will be on the right side of that question. I don’t think I’ve ever predicted Penn State to be on the correct side of that inquiry in a game in which it is an underdog. But, a home game environment coupled with a tremendous defensive performance and just enough offense will keep the Lions in the College Football Playoff race.

Penn State: 21
Michigan: 17

Ryan Snyder (Season: 8-1)

Once again, Penn State enters Saturday’s game against Michigan looking to prove nationally that they’re a legit Big Ten title contender. Back in August, the Nittany Lions were a popular pick to take that next step this season. The hype was strong throughout the first half of the season until they were tasked with beating Ohio State on the road, which seems to never happen. Looking back, that was the easier game to predict than this one.

Everyone has jumped off the bandwagon following that performance, which is fair. Until Penn State proves it, I don’t see that mindset changing.

Last week against Maryland, we saw Drew Allar truly take a step in the right direction. The Terps aren’t anything close to Michigan defensively, but I do think that game will give him a much-needed confidence boost heading into this one. We’re not going to see this offense struggle on third down like they did in Columbus.

I think the Wolverines have more pressure on them in this game than Penn State. It’s not often that a program of Michigan’s caliber gets into November without being tested. If Penn State’s defense comes to play, which I expect them to do, I think they can force the Wolverines into some mistakes.

Manny Diaz’s defense is also still well aware of what happened last year, with Michigan rushing for over 400 yards. I think Penn State’s defense is better against the run this year, while the Wolverines aren’t quite on the same level that they were.

Also, while Roman Wilson is a very good receiver, he isn’t Marvin Harrison Jr. Kalen King needs a get-right game, and this is likely his last chance to make a splash before the NFL Draft.

Call me crazy, but I think this game is much more winnable than at Ohio State. Michigan may pull it out, but if we’re predicting Penn State to win one of these two games, this one makes much more sense.

Penn State: 23
Michigan: 21