Penn State-Michigan State predictions: How college football experts, computer data systems are picking the game
Penn State closes out the regular season portion of its schedule today with one final Big Ten road trip in 2023. The No. 11 Nittany Lions (9-2) take on Michigan State (4-7) tonight at Ford Field in Detroit. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. Head coach James Franklin’s team is a 21.5-point favorite. The betting points total sits at 42.5.
“I’m ready to get after it,” Michigan State running back Jaren Mangham said. “Obviously I’ve watched a lot of film on their defense, seeing the front, seeing the edge rushers. That’s just kind of like my whole attack, just trying to key in on what they like to do and try to eliminate that type of stuff.”
How are local, national, and BWI’s team of experts picking the game? And, how do computer data systems see it? We have a full rundown below.
Computer model picks for Penn State-Michigan State
At ESPN, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 33-11 Penn State victory.
Over at Sports Line, the Lions are projected to win and cover, 35-10.
The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock has the Lions winning but not covering with a 31-10 final.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Lions a 95 percent chance of winning.
And, The Dunkle Index projects a 26.5-point margin of victory for Penn State and an over call with a total points projection of 46.
How are national writers picking the game?
For the Sporting News, national college football writer Bill Bender predicts a 35-14 Penn State victory.
“Penn State and Michigan State will play at Ford Field, an interesting opportunity for the Big Ten East rivals,” Bender writes. “Drew Allar suffered an injury last week, but Beau Pribula adds a different dimension to the Nittany Lions’ offense. Penn State still is in the mix for a New Year’s Day Six bid, and they are 6-0 ATS when they win in Big Ten play. The Nittany Lions roll here, too.”
For College Football News, Pete Fituak envisions a 35-13 Nittany Lions triumph.
“This is Michigan State’s bowl game, and it’ll pull out all the stops, but that will all start to fade as the game goes on,” Fiutak writes. “Slow and steady will win this race.
“Penn State is still pushing for a top bowl game, and it should have it by keeping it boring, going with the same offensive plays, and not taking any chances. It’ll dominate the time of possession battle, and the defensive front that leads the nation in sacks will have a fun regular season finale.”
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What do local beat writers think of the Lions-Spartans game?
For Sports Illustrated, Mark Wogenrich and Max Ralph both predict a Penn State win. But, the former does not see a cover in the cards for the Lions.
” Penn State practiced on an empty campus for a short-week game on a Friday night in Detroit,” Wogenrich writes. “Tickets are cheap and plentiful. Who knows how the Spartans will approach this? They’ve won two of three after a six-game losing streak. Their season ends Friday. It’s likely the last game for interim head coach Harlon Bennett. That makes Michigan State unpredictable, and unpredictability is the last ingredient Franklin and Penn State want to introduce to this game. So the Lions will lean on what they know: Defense and a few Alex Felkins field goals.”
At The Daily Collegian, all three pickers project a Nittany Lion win and cover. For the York Daily Record, Frank Bodani picks a 33-12 Penn State win.
How is the Blue-White Illustrated staff picking the contest?
Nate Bauer: PSU 27, MSU 6
Sean Fitz: PSU 30, MSU 10
Thomas Frank Carr: Penn State 27, Michigan State 10
Matt Herb: PSU 27, MSU 13
Greg Pickel: Penn State 37, Michigan State 7
Ryan Snyder: PSU 31, MSU 10
