Penn State vs. Michigan State Predictions: What should fans expect against the Spartans?

Penn State will play its final game of the 2023 regular season tomorrow night against Michigan State. Following the Big Ten’s updated television contract, both schools agreed to move the game inside to Detroit’s Ford Field so NBC could broadcast the game in primetime Friday evening. While it’s still technically a home game for the Spartans, don’t be surprised if it feels more like a neutral site following a tumultuous season in East Lansing. Tickets are currently selling for as cheap as $22 on the secondary market.

With a win, the Nittany Lions will likely make a New Year’s Six Bowl for the second consecutive year. Penn State opened as 16-point favorites, but the spread has now climbed all the way to 21 points.

Up until this month, Michigan State was winless in the Big Ten, losing its first five conference games. They have rallied a bit in recent weeks, defeating both Nebraska and Indiana.

Over the years, the two schools have played each other 37 times, with each program collecting 18 wins with one tie. Since joining the Big Ten in 1993, Penn State is 17-10 against Michigan State. They’ve also won three of the past four. However, the Spartans do hold a 5-4 lead over PSU since James Franklin took over the program in 2014.

So, how will Friday night’s game play out? Our staff offers up its predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season: 10-1)

James Franklin dismissed Mike Yurcich following the Michigan game, leaving the offensive coordinator role to be shared by Ja’Juan Seider and Ty Howle. Drew Allar got hurt in the second half against Rutgers and, as of Tuesday evening at practice, still wasn’t throwing. Regardless of whether it’s Allar or Beau Pribula, the receivers aren’t transforming into a potent unit with one regular season game left to play.

At 9-2, the College Football Playoff is out for this group. And, with Penn State’s campus dead over Thanksgiving break, and a short week of prep for a Friday evening game, the Nittany Lions have needed to bring energy to get ready for this weekend’s matchup with a Michigan State team still caring enough to win two of its last three.

The defense is still very, very good, though. Meaning, this is pure “get across the finish line” territory for the Penn State football program.

In its losses, Michigan State has largely been competitive this season. The exceptions to that have been Washington, Michigan, and Ohio State, predictably. For a Penn State team not rising to that level, the process is likely to be more of a grind, with a result that falls somewhere in the middle.

Penn State: 27
Michigan State: 6

Thomas Frank Carr (10-1)

I have no idea what to expect from the Penn State offense week-to-week, especially now that Drew Allar’s status is up in the air for the final game. Michigan State doesn’t have a ferocious defense, and their offensive line is poor. That’s a combination for a dominant game from the Nittany Lions to end the year.

But will Penn State try to score points and throw the ball if Allar isn’t available? Or will they play extended ball control with Beau Pribula under center? Pribula is a capable passer and can help generate explosive run plays on the ground for Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen.

But it’s hard for me to predict a score in the 30s with so many variables. My official game score is below, even though I think Penn State could potentially blow this team out.

Penn State: 27
Michigan State: 10

Sean Fitz (Season: 10-1)

It’s another tough one to forecast, not because I don’t think Penn State will win, but because there are so many unknowns heading into Friday. Of course, all eyes are on quarterback, but I do believe the Nittany Lions can win with either Drew Allar or Beau Pribula taking the snaps this week. If the latter is called upon, it should open up the run game a bit more for Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton. 

Michigan State is banged up in a big way. Starting center Nick Samac has been ruled out for the game, which may not be the biggest news on the surface, but the Spartans will start redshirt freshman Katin Houser at quarterback. Anything that can throw off the rhythm of a young quarterback is a big deal.

Samac went down on the first drive of the Indiana game last week and Houser did throw for 279 yards and three scores, but he wasn’t facing Penn State’s pass rush. The Nittany Lions have turned to lining Chop Robinson up over the center. Even with Samac in there, it would be a mismatch. Backup Dallas Fincher will have his hands full on Friday.

I think Penn State’s defense can dictate this one, even on the short week. 

Penn State: 30
Michigan State: 10

Matt Herb (Season: 11-0)

Lots of unknowns this week. How healthy is Drew Allar? Even if he’s full-go, will Penn State partition the quarterback snaps differently than it did in the season’s first 11 games? How healthy is Michigan State? In addition to their off-the-field problems, the Spartans have been devastated by a series of key injuries, the most recent being to starting center Nick Samac. Will any of those players be back on the field against PSU? What will the atmosphere be like for an off-campus game on a Friday night that will wrap up a dreary season for Michigan State? The Spartans have been all but eliminated from bowl contention, and one can imagine a fair number of fans sitting out the team’s Black Friday finale at Ford Field.

I think Penn State will take care of business, regardless of the uncertainty at quarterback following Allar’s game-ending injury against Rutgers. All season long, the Nittany Lions have been good to great on the defensive side of the ball, and defense travels.

Penn State: 27
Michigan State: 13

Greg Pickel (Season: 10-1)

Penn State has the talent edge and the motivational edge. The Nittany Lions are on track to win a 10th regular season game to try and lock in a spot in the New Year’s Six bowl game rotation. Michigan State, meanwhile, is shorthanded (it took less than 50 scholarship players to Indiana last week) and surely ready for this wayward season to end.

I have no doubt that the Spartans would love to upset Friday’s visitors to send interim head coach Harlon Barnett out with a victory. It’s just hard to see how they score enough points or get enough stops to do so. That’s true even if the Lions have an interim offensive coordinator and question marks at quarterback. There’s not much of a reason to overthink this contest.

Penn State: 37
Michigan State: 7

Ryan Snyder (Season: 9-2)

If you think Penn State has struggled on offense this year, that’s nothing compared to Michigan State. In eight conference games this season, the Spartans are averaging just 13.5 points per game, which is last in the Big Ten. Against the three ranked opponents they faced this year – Washington, Michigan and Ohio State – they’ve been outscored 128-10.

Defensively, the Nittany Lions are on par with those three ranked opponents, so it’s hard for me to envision Michigan State surpassing 10 points in this game. With no bowl game to play for, the transfer portal about to open and a new coaching staff set to take over, I wonder what kind of effort we’re going to see from Sparty. Sure, they’ve won two games in recent weeks, but they could also fold pretty quickly in this one if PSU can start fast.

Fast starts haven’t been Penn State’s strength offensively, but it does sound as if QB Drew Allar will be good to go. If you take out the game against Delaware and last week’s game when Allar got hurt, Beau Pribula has been averaging about seven snaps per game this season. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him surpass that average Friday night. Two of Penn State’s top three drives against Rutgers last Saturday came with Pribula in the game. Working him into the game plan more this week, even if Allar starts, may not be a bad decision.

But regardless of what we see on offense, I expect Penn State’s defense to finish out the season strong.

Penn State: 31
Michigan State: 10