Penn State-Minnesota Matchups: Who will have the edge in Minneapolis?

By Greg Pickel

No. 4 Penn State hits the road for the final time in the regular season when it visits Minnesota on Saturday. The Nittany Lions will hope to secure a victory and get one step closer to securing a home Playoff game. The Golden Gophers, meanwhile, want to pull off the upset to put themselves in the best bowl game situation possible. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

“It will be a challenge,” Lions coach James Franklin said on Monday. “It’s a tough place to go play, beautiful stadium they built a couple years ago. They get really good support. We’re going to have to go and play well to find a way to get a win on the road here in the Big Ten.”

Added Minnesota coach PJ Fleck, who also spoke on Monday:

“We’ve just got to put it all together in all three areas for four quarters. That’s going to be critical for us. I don’t think that’s hard for anybody to understand. I know that we’re going to get their best shot. This is a top-four team fighting for a top-four spot in the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten Championship. They’re fighting for that. So we’re going to get their best shot. We’ve got to play our best football of the year.”

We break down the matchups below.

When Penn State is on offense

The Penn State offense is in for its stiffest test since the Ohio State game on Saturday. The Minnesota defense has not exactly faced a murderers’ row of offenses this year. But, it has done a fine job against the one it has. The Golden Gophers ‘D’ ranks No. 15 in SP+ rankings, No. 11 in total defense, No. 12 in scoring defense, and is top 20 nationally against the pass while holding a top 35 mark against the run.

Linebacker Cody Lindenberg is the heart and soul of the defense and its leading tackler. Safety Koi Perich is first in the Big Ten and second in the country with five interceptions. Overall, the Minnesota defense has secured 16 interceptions, which is the fourth-most in the country in 2024.

So, where is this unit vulnerable? Its 19 sacks on the year rank No. 72 nationally. Its 46 tackles for loss rank No. 108, and it’s 108th in third-down defense by allowing opponents to convert those at a 43.8 percent clip. Those are bad metrics to own when facing Penn State. The Lions nine sacks allowed are the sixth-fewest in the country. Their 30 TFLs allowed rank third. And they have the No. 5 third down offense in the country. Penn State’s well-documented receiver issues aside, Drew Allar should have plenty of time to find open targets, be it Tyler Warren, a running back, or yes, even a receiver. Allar must not make inaccurate throws like he did at USC because those will turn into interceptions in Minneapolis as they did in Los Angeles. But, that hasn’t been an issue since that game.

All told, this will definitely be a test, but Penn State outpaces Minnesota in too many areas despite the Golden Gophers’ incredible turnovers gained stat to make us think Andy Kotelnicki’s bunch won’t pass it.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Nittany Lions are on defense

This is where Penn State can find its biggest advantage on Saturday. Quarterback Max Brosmer has eclipsed 250 yards passing just four times this season. Daniel Jackson leads the receivers with 63 receptions for 712 yards but Elijah Spencer (39-482) has him beat in the receiving touchdowns column four to three. The offense prefers to work through running back Darius Taylor, who has 136 carries for 672 yards and nine touchdowns.

Minnesota has lost eight turnovers this year, and they are evenly split between fumbles and interceptions. That’s among the fewest in the country, and considering the Penn State defense is not exactly a turnover machine, we don’t expect that to be an issue for Saturday’s home side.

Third down is an area where strengths will be matched, as Minnesota is No 20 on offense and PSU No. 31 on defense. Where the Lions should have an edge is with their pass rush: The Golden Gophers have been, at times, susceptible to sacks and TFLs allowed that set them off schedule. Their total offense is No. 113 nationally in yards per game with 333, but more concerning is a 5.3 yards per play mark that ranks No. 100 nationally. And, Taylor did not look quite right against Rutgers. The week off should help, but he’s a bit of a boom or bust back and is facing one of the best rushing defenses.

It’s hard to see Minnesota having enough fire power to keep up, or score late if needed, in this contest. Stop the run and put pressure on Brosmer, and Penn State will like the results.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–Minnesota kicker Dragen Kesich is fairly reliable from 40 yards and in. He is 15 of 21 on the year with five of his missed coming beyond that mark on the field. But, he is capable of hitting from 50-plus, and thus could be a weapon on game day. It’s why James Franklin called him a potential difference maker despite his 71-percent made field goal percentage on the year.

–Golden Gophers punter Mark Crawford is fine. His numbers do not blow you away but he’s serviceable.

–Perich can be a problem in the punt-return game. He is averaging 12.92 yards over 13 returns, which is No. 11 nationally. It’ll be on Riley Thompson to have a solid game when called upon, and the same goes for his gunners.

Final word on Penn State-Minnesota

We can see why some fans are worried about this game. But, from our point of view, Penn State has too many weapons to make this a close call for 60 minutes. For a half? Sure, we suppose we could see that, especially with the Golden Gophers coming out of a bye. But this is a game the Lions should eventually coast in if they truly are a top-10 team in the country. And, we think they will.