Penn State-Minnesota Predictions: Can Lions rebound and get White Out win vs. Gophers?

Penn State will welcome Minnesota to Beaver Stadium Saturday for the first time since 2016. The circumstances surrounding this week and that game are eerily similar, as the Nittany Lions were defeated 49-10 at Michigan the week before that game.

Of course, that game seven years ago changed everything about the season, as Penn State beat the Gophers in overtime and ended up winning nine straight to win the Big Ten Championship. Overall, the Lions hold a 9-6 edge in games against Minnesota since joining the Big Ten. However, PJ Fleck’s team got the most recent win in 2019, as Penn State’s undefeated run ended in a Top 15 showdown in Minneapolis, losing 31-26.

Minnesota will also get the White Out treatment for the first time. Penn State is 9-8 all-time in White Out games.

Can Penn State right the ship and avoid a second straight defeat? Our staff gives its predictions below.

Penn State-Minnesota matchups: Who will have the edge on Saturday?

Nate Bauer (Season: 6-0; Last Game: 27-24 Mich)

The White Out at Beaver Stadium is one of the great happenings in college athletics, year over year. And, at a moment Penn State football is undeniably forced to confront the doubts of its most recent performance, a 41-17 blowout loss at Michigan, it couldn’t be coming at a better time for the Nittany Lions. Realistically, that’s because virtually nothing else about this matchup should feel good to this Penn State football program.

It might be premature to call it dead on arrival, but Penn State has significant offensive challenges to overcome, and Minnesota’s stout defense isn’t going to be a remedy. Bottom line, the ground game that has disappeared over the past month has to bounce back in a big way, not unlike what Illinois did to the Gophers last week. And on the other side of the ball, Penn State better be ready to clean up its inability to stop the run exploited so efficiently by the Wolverines, as Minnesota’s offensive strengths are a near copycat with Mohamed Ibrahim in the backfield, and in time of possession. 

The difference for Penn State to feast upon is Minnesota’s relative one-dimensionality offensively. Should Manny Diaz commit to stopping the run with resources, and Penn State’s defensive front lives up to the advantage, handling the Gophers’ passing attack is well within reach for the Nittany Lions, regardless of who lines up at quarterback. This one could go any number of directions, but close and low scoring seems most likely to me. 

Penn State: 23

Minnesota: 19

Thomas Frank Carr (Season: 6-0; Last Game: 28-4 Mich)

Penn State’s offensive issues don’t feel like an easy fix. After coming out of the gates hot, teams have caught up with the Nittany Lions. The offense remains untrustworthy until they prove that they can adjust to what teams are doing. With that in mind, the team feels much more untrustworthy by default.

At the risk of being wrong two weeks in a row, I don’t think that Manny Diaz’s defense will give up an alarming number of rushing yards again. They have deep-seated issues based on personnel, but it would be shocking to see Penn State out-schemed by Minnesota, who have been historically more predictable on offense. Quarterback Tanner Morgan’s status is a wildcard for this game. If he plays, Penn State will have a tough time scoring more points than the Gophers. So we’ll hedge here and pick the home team by a close margin.

Penn State: 24

Minnesota: 21

Sean Fitz (Season: 6-0; Last Game: 24-17 Mich)

It’s a crossroads game for Penn State. Doesn’t everyone love those? Coming off of an embarrassing defeat at the hands of Michigan last week, it seems the stakes are higher as the Nittany Lions welcome Minnesota into Beaver Stadium on Saturday night. We talk often about snowball potential in games, but this could turn really bad, really fast for the season if things don’t go Penn State’s way this weekend. How the team will respond is anyone’s guess. Sure, there’s motivation with the night game, White Out experience that is truly one-of-a-kind, but James Franklin’s teams have let losses linger far too often in past years.

The matchups themselves should favor of the Nittany Lions, especially if veteran Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan won’t be able to go after a scary injury last weekend against Illinois. Regardless, Minnesota has the Michigan tape and they’ll try to do exactly what the Wolverines did last week. Running back Mohamed Ibrahim may be the best back in the conference and the Gophers won’t be shy about giving him the ball as much as it takes. Manny Diaz is under the microscope this week after the Nittany Lions were badly outschemed last Saturday. Minnesota’s defense probably doesn’t get enough credit themselves, as they’re third in the conference in scoring defense. The Gophers do a great job of keeping the play in front of them. Penn State will need to extend drives and pick its spots for potential big plays. 

This one was so huge for the Nittany Lions the last time these two met in Happy Valley in 2016, coincidentally not long after a thrashing from the Wolverines. I expect another close one on Saturday night unless Penn State can hit some home runs early.

Penn State: 20

Minnesota: 17

Matt Herb (Season: 6-0; Last Game: 28-17 Mich)

A humbling loss doesn’t have to be the end of your season — just ask Oregon. The Ducks were even less competitive against Georgia on opening day than Penn State was in Ann Arbor last Saturday, yet they regrouped behind the strong play of an oft-criticized quarterback, are in the mix for the Pac-12 title and have “College GameDay” coming to Eugene this weekend for their showdown with UCLA. 

But to do what Oregon has done, you need to show resilience. That’s not been Penn State’s forte in recent years. In four of the past five seasons, the Lions have followed up their first loss by dropping their next game. 

Something else PSU needs to show is more scoring potential. The Lions have managed only 27 offensive points in their past two games.

Fortunately for them, Minnesota has managed only 24 points over that same span. The Gophers haven’t demonstrated the kind of consistency in the passing game that they need in order to complement Mohamed Ibrahim’s impressive running. 

With Minnesota eager to slow the tempo and Penn State having had less success lately at generating the big plays that characterized its first few games, this figures to be a relatively low-scoring slugfest. I’ll give it to the Lions, mostly because they’re home and the White Out atmosphere will work to their advantage, especially if super senior quarterback Tanner Morgan isn’t cleared to play. 

Penn State: 24

Minnesota: 21

Greg Pickel (Season: 5-1; Last Game: 21-17 Penn State)

Penn State enters Saturday’s showdown with Minnesota hoping to have quarterback Sean Clifford and guard Landon Tengwall available. The Golden Gophers, meanwhile, don’t know if first-team passer Tanner Morgan will be a go after he suffered a head injury last week. Either way, Kirk Ciarrocca is sure to try and take advantage of Penn State’s rush defense with Minnesota star back Mohamed Ibrahim.

We can see Saturday’s visitors having some success in that regard. Ultimately, though, the Lions will end their trend of losing for the second time in a season immediately after dropping their first contest. It will be close, but in a game where each side could badly use a win, it’s all about taking what you can get to earn a victory. Penn State will do enough of that to win.

Penn State: 28

Minnesota: 20

Ryan Snyder (Season: 5-1; Last Game: 28-24 Penn State)

Penn State is coming off a pretty poor effort last week in Ann Arbor, and now they have an opportunity to get back in the win column against a quality opponent in Minnesota. We all know PSU’s history with back-to-back losses, but Minnesota has some issues, too.

Last week, quarterback Tanner Morgan left the game with a concussion, and it looks as if he’s up in the air for Saturday. With their normal backup, Cole Kramer also out last week, Morgan and third-string QB Athan Kaliakmanis combined to go 6 for 18 for just 38 yards passing and three interceptions against the Illini. Not good.

But even the week before, when Morgan played throughout, Minnesota had issues turning the ball over, throwing three picks against the Boilermakers. Future NFL running back Mohamed Ibrahim has since returned after missing that game, but I think Minnesota has to have some sort of passing attack if they’re going to take advantage of Penn State’s weaknesses against the run. I know, that wasn’t really the case against Michigan, but this isn’t Michigan.

But make no mistake, this is gut-check time for this team. Michigan’s offensive line is very good, and now I think we’re going to learn a lot about how good Penn State’s defensive line really is. Minnesota isn’t on Michigan’s level, but I still foresee the Gophers giving Penn State some problems.

Offensively, I expect Sean Clifford to play and a better overall effort from everyone. Minnesota gave up 220 yards rushing to Illinois and 160 yards rushing against a Purdue squad that wants to throw. I think we should see Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton find a few more gaps, and that’ll help take pressure off that passing attack. It’s gonna be close though.

Penn State: 23

Minnesota: 20