Penn State-Minnesota Predictions: Can Lions wrap up road slate with another win?

Penn State head coach James Franklin has hit plenty of milestones over the course of his tenure, but he has an opportunity to reach another one this Saturday. Since taking over the program in 2014, the Nittany Lions have never gone undefeated on the road. A win against Minnesota on Saturday would change that.

Of course, not having to play one of either Michigan or Ohio State on the road this year compared to previous years plays a part in that, but it still would represent something you don’t see very often in modern-day college football.

But before we get too ahead of ourselves, it should be noted that the Golden Gophers aren’t a team that Penn State can take lightly. A loss to Rutgers two weeks ago doesn’t look great, but PSU fans know that Minnesota has given the Nittany Lions trouble over the years. In fact, the last time these two teams played in Minneapolis in 2019, the Gophers defeated a Penn State squad that just happened to be ranked No. 4 in the country at the time, 31-26. Add in the 29-26 overtime win for PSU in 2016, and dare I even mention 1999, and this is a game that should have everyone’s full focus.

So, how will Saturday’s game play out? Our staff offers up their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season Record – 9-1)

Minnesota has been pretty good defensively this season, but has yet to face an offense as capable as Penn State’s when operating at its best. Penn State has been pretty good offensively this season, but has had scoring snafus against the better defenses it has faced on the schedule.

Minnesota’s offense isn’t great. Penn State’s defense is.

Boosted by the momentum of a strong first half against Washington offensively, parlayed into four very good quarters at Purdue last week, the Nittany Lions will have the opportunity to continue trending in an enviable direction against a Minnesota program that has made its opponents earn their wins this year. What I’m anticipating to be a step back from the 35- and 49-point outings of the past two weeks should not endanger Penn State’s ability to largely control the tenor of the game, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.

Either way, needing to stack wins convincingly en route to what the program hopes will be its first College Football Playoff berth, this is an opportunity I think the Nittany Lions are ready to seize.

Penn State: 26
Minnesota: 13

Sean Fitz (Season Record – 10-0)

This is certainly the most tricky situation/scenario for Penn State over the last month of the season. The Nittany Lions go to Minneapolis where PJ Fleck and the Gophers hope to play some sort of spoiler. That doesn’t mean Minnesota is a worldbeater, by any means, but a home-field advantage in a solid defense is a good place to start.

That said, it’s tough to see Minnesota’s offense causing too much panic for the Nittany Lions’ defense. The Gophers’ last time out was a 26-19 loss on the road at Rutgers. While a bye week can clean some of that up, I keep going back to the fact that a beat up Scarlet Knights team handled both lines of scrimmage in the win. Rutgers got to Max Brosmer four times and had eight tackles for loss. That seems like good news for Abdul Carter and company.

Will the Nittany Lions keep up the efficient first halves of the last two weeks? If so, this one could be a comfortable ride out. This is Penn State’s third CBS afternoon game of the season. In the first two, Tyler Warren has 25 catches, 351 yards and two receiving touchdowns, four carries for 67 yards and a score on the ground and two Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week showings. Maybe a third standout performance could land him his own NCIS spin-off.

Penn State: 31
Minnesota: 13

Thomas Frank Carr (Season Record – 9-1)

The Minnesota defense presents a great challenge for the Penn State offense, coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Washington and Purdue. Unlike the Huskies, Minnesota’s defense can back up its statistical excellence with quality film. The defensive line is stout, aggressive, and smart, and the secondary plays with awareness and advanced techniques. If Penn State can handle this group the same way they did the last two games, it will show definite growth and development.

The Minnesota offense does not bring the same level of danger to this game. Max Brosmer is a good college quarterback, but the team lacks the speed and weaponry around him to make it a true game. Penn State’s defenisve line and front seven have proven that even if they don’t always play a clean game, they can get hot and dominate against the run.

It may be a classic Penn State effort overall, but the Lions should get the job done.

Penn State: 27
Minnesota: 10

Matt Herb (Season Record – 9-1)

It’s been 25 years since Minnesota scuttled Penn State’s 1999 national championship bid in one of the most crushing defeats of the Paterno era, and it’s been five years since the Gophers dealt a devastating blow to PSU’s 2019 playoff bid in one of the more deflating performances of the Franklin era.

Does even more disappointment lie ahead this week, with the Nittany Lions set to return to Minneapolis for the first time since that 2019 game, in which their late comeback attempt fell short? It’s possible. The Gophers had won four in a row and were one of the Big Ten’s hottest teams before fumbling away their game at Rutgers on Nov. 9. They’ve beaten USC and Illinois might have beaten Michigan if not for a questionably officiated onside kick at the end. They’re coming off a bye week, too, which should prove particularly helpful at this late stage of the season when every team is dealing with injuries.

Still, the Gophers are averaging 25 points per game against Big Ten opponents. Throw out a 48-23 thrashing of Maryland, and that average dips to 21.2 points. Are they going to be able to muster enough offense against Penn State, which is allowing only 13.8 points per game against conference foes and excels at putting opponents in unfavorable down-and-distance situations? That’s an open question.

Boasting an opportunistic defense that ranks fourth in the FBS with 16 interceptions, Minnesota certainly looks like it has the potential to play spoiler again. But the more likely scenario is that Penn State does enough scoring to keep its playoff bid on track.

Penn State: 27
Minnesota: 17

Greg Pickel (Season Record – 10-0)

Minnesota has lost just one game by more than a touchdown this season. It is 7-2-1 against the spread. Penn State, on the other hand, is just 5-5 against the number this year but has seven double-digit victories. Those figures don’t mean much going into this weekend’s meeting between the Golden Gophers and Nittany Lions, but it is worth pointing out that either the home team’s defense or the away team’s offense will decide which season-long trend continues.

Penn State will be tested by one of the better defenses it’s seen so far this season. We heard similar concerns against Washington, though, and that turned out to be no problem, albeit that game was at home and in front of a White Out crowd. Regardless, the Lions know what is at stake here and won’t allow 2019 to repeat itself. For one, that was a much better Minnesota team. And, secondly, this Lions team is more equipped to win on the road, in our opinion, as they’ve already shown this season.

The Lions cover the double-digit spread and leave Minneapolis victorious.

Penn State: 24
Minnesota: 10

Ryan Snyder (Season Record – 10-0)

Not only can Penn State not afford to lose either of its last two games, but I still believe they need to look sharp these final two weeks to ensure a home playoff game. I get it; the current projections have them safely playing at home as a six-seed, but I still think there’s a good chance they end up a lower seed than No. 6 once we get through conference championship games. Nationally, a lot of people want to doubt PSU’s record at the moment, so squeaking out wins against either Minnesota or Maryland will only feed that fire.

The key matchup I’m focused on this week is Penn State’s pass rush against Minnesota’s offensive line. Aireontae Ersery against Abdul Carter is a matchup between two likely first-round picks, but aside from Ersery, I think Penn State’s remaining defensive linemen all have an advantage. Quarterback Max Brosmer has been good this year, throwing just four interceptions all year. However, three of those came against the two best defenses he faced this year in Michigan and Iowa. Now, Penn State comes in statistically better than both of those teams.

Minnesota’s secondary does have 16 interceptions on the season, so Allar has to be smart, but for the most part, that’s one of his strengths and always has been. An 11.5-point spread feels a bit too high, but I do think PSU can take a double-digit lead in the third quarter before allowing a backdoor cover late.

Penn State: 24
Minnesota: 17