Penn State-Minnesota predictions: How computer data systems, college football experts, see the game

Minneapolis, Minn.– No. 4 Penn State is a double-digit favorite for today’s 3:30 p.m. ET matchup with Minnesota on CBS. The point spread sits at 11.5 points, while the over/under betting total is 45.5. According to OddsShark, the Lions are 1-0 this year as a double-digit road favorite after covering last weekend at Purdue. They are 12-4 against the spread all-time as double-digit road favorites in the James Franklin era, and winners of their last seven contests when that was the case.

Our weekly picks roundup gives you one final, comprehensive look at what data systems and experts believe before kickoff. And, as always, be sure to check your sportsbook of choice for any line changes, and remember to play responsibly!

Computer model picks for Penn State-Minnesota

ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 30-15 win for the Lions. That would equal a Penn State cover and would be right on the total.

Sportsline sees a 30-17 win for the Lions. That’s a pick for a PSU cover and the over.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 29-17 PSU win. That’s another pick for a Lions cover and a pick for the over, though both are by a close margin.

Finally, The Dunkel Index projects a 19.5-point Lions win. It likes the under, as it calls for 41 total points in the contest.

Lions-Golden Gophers picks from a national perspective

Bill Bender of The Sporting News is in line with the computer models. He calls for a 31-17 PSU triumph, predicting a Nittany Lions cover and the over in the process.

“These Big Ten teams do not play frequently, and the Gophers have won the last two meetings in Minneapolis,” Bender writes. “The Nittany Lions are in a bit of a beauty contest in the Big Ten, and Drew Allar has a 78.7% completion percentage with four TDs and no interceptions since the loss to Ohio State. The Gophers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games at home underdog. This is a tough call, and Minnesota had a bye week to prepare.”

For Bleacher Report, David Kenyon calls for a 27-13 Lions win. That’s a call for the under while the road team covers.

“Minnesota must be respected, considering the defense has yielded just 17.7 points per game,” Kenyon writes. “The problem is Minnesota’s offense has notched a conference-low seven gains of 30-plus yards, and lacking explosiveness against a sturdy Penn State team is asking for trouble.”

Pete Fiutak of College Football News has it 27-16 in favor of Penn State.

“The Nittany Lions will be in a war,” he writes. “The Gopher defense will rise up and be great against the run, Nittany Lion QB Drew Allar won’t take too many shots down the field, and it’ll be tough getting points.

“Penn State will pull it out late on a defensive stop, but it’ll do a whole lot of sweating.”

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-Minnesota

At PennLive, its four-man picks team is unanimous in picking the Lions to win but only three of them predict that the Lions will cover the 11.5-point spread.

“I think this will remind a lot of people of the wins over Illinois and UCLA earlier in the season,” Johnny McGonigal writes in calling for a 24-13 road victory. “The Nittany Lions will dictate the game, and at no point — aside from maybe the first quarter — will they seem to be in any real danger of being upset. Penn State needs to be business-like in its approach and win ugly if need be.”

At the Centre Daily Times, Jon Sauber picks it 28-10 in favor of Penn State.

“This is the game that will determine if Penn State locks itself into a playoff berth,” he writes. “There’s an argument to be made that, because of that, this is the most important game of the season for the Nittany Lions. And I have a hard time seeing them losing it. The Gophers struggle to score for long stretches and I’d expect the 60 minutes of game time Saturday to be one of those stretches. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they fail to score a touchdown, even if I’m predicting that they manage to get one.

Frank Bodani picks it 27-13 in favor of the Lions for the York Daily Record.

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Golden Gophers

Nate Bauer: PSU: 26, Minnesota: 13
Sean Fitz: PSU: 31, Minnesota: 13
Thomas Frank Carr: PSU: 27, Minnesota: 10
Matt Herb: PSU: 27, Minnesota: 17
Greg Pickel: PSU: 24, Minnesota: 10
Ryan Snyder: PSU: 24, Minnesota: 17