Penn State basketball looks for answers on offense as it takes on Minnesota: Preview, prediction

Micah Shrewsberry predicted before the season that Penn State’s defense would come together more quickly than its offense.

Now entrenched in the meat of the conference schedule, the Nittany Lions have become one of the Big Ten’s most stubborn defensive units.

Penn State has played three of its last six games against teams ranked in the top-6 of KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric. A recent contest against Michigan gives Shrewsberry’s team another game against a top-20 offense.

Over that span, the Nittany Lions have allowed 63 points per game in regulation, successfully limiting some of the most efficient offenses in the country.

In those six games, they’re 1-5.

A 58-57 defeat to a Michigan team on Tuesday encapsulated Penn State’s offensive frustrations perfectly. The Lions held a team full of NBA prospects to a 31.5 percent conversion rate from the field, but couldn’t do enough to get the win. A 10-minute stretch without a point proved fatal.

“I felt like we got good shots,” Shrewsberry said. “We were attacking the rim. Like, we’re getting all the way to the rim and getting shots right there. We just gotta make them.”

As Shrewsberry thought it might be before the season began, offense has been the challenge for the Nittany Lions. But that challenge is presenting itself in different ways now.

PSU is averaging 10 turnovers a game in this six-game stretch, down from 11.9 over the first 14 contests of the year. The problem, simply explained, has been making shots. The Nittany Lions are shooting 37.4 percent from the floor during this slide, compared to 45.1 percent previously.

“I think we beat ourselves, basically,” point guard Jalen Pickett said after the Michigan loss. “We were struggling at one point turning the ball over a lot this season, and now we’re getting it down to the single digits where we wanna be. We’re just missing a lot of shots.”

An injury to forward Greg Lee doesn’t make things any easier as the Nittany Lions travel to Minnesota Saturday night to take on the Gophers.

Shrewsberry said he’s uncertain how long Lee, who was spotted wearing a boot on his right leg, will be out for.

The Nittany Lions struggled to keep Michigan off the glass without Lee, surrendering seven more offensive rebounds than they collected. With an offense struggling for efficiency, Penn State can’t afford to allow its opponent to get extra shots.

Scouting the Gophers

Minnesota comes into this game at 11-10 overall and 2-10 in conference play.

In their first season under new head coach Ben Johnson, the Gophers have lost nine of their last 10 games, including a 13-point defeat on Wednesday against a Nebraska team that was previously winless in Big Ten play.

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Minnesota is 1-5 at home in the Big Ten, getting its lone win over Rutgers.

KenPom ranks Minnesota’s offense at No. 98 in the country as of Friday morning, with its defensive efficiency following at No. 133. Overall, the Gophers sit at No. 103 in KenPom’s ratings, while Penn State is ranked 82nd.

The duo of Payton Willis and Jamison Battle provides the scoring punch for the Gophers. Willis averages 16.5 points per game, edged slightly by Battle at 17.2.

Minnesota shoots the three-ball effectively, with a 36.2 percent conversion rate from deep that ranks 59th in the country.

Penn State vs Minnesota Prediction

Minnesota 62, Penn State 57

Penn State has won once on the road all season, and the absence of Greg Lee could be a real problem for the Nittany Lions if he can’t suit up. Unless the Nittany Lions can turn their offense around, winning on the road will be tough.