BWI Staff Predictions: How many games will Penn State win in 2022?

Penn State fans won’t have to wait as long as they normally do leading up to the season opener, as James Franklin and the Nittany Lions will begin their season for the first time on Thursday, Sept. 1. The showdown against Purdue in West Lafayette, Ind., is not only one of the best games of week one, but it could have a major impact on how the Nittany Lions’ season goes.

With another road trip to Auburn set for two weeks later, plus the normal grind that is the Big Ten East, the schedule ranks among the hardest in college football this season. With that said, there’s still reason for optimism in 2022. Our staff gives their thoughts on the season with just five days remaining until Thursday night’s showdown on FOX.

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Greg Pickel•

Nate Bauer

So much of Penn State’s outlook for 2022 feels tied to the outcome of its first three games. Ohio shouldn’t cause any trouble, but opening the year at Purdue for a nationally televised Thursday night game, then traveling to Auburn for a marquee nonconference game is absolutely treacherous.

The difference in potential between 1-2, 2-1 or 3-0 could not be more stark. While I believe Penn State could get through it unscathed, the more likely outcome is probably somewhere in the middle. For Penn State’s sake, though, starting well with a victory over the Boilermakers is more important to its season than a win at Auburn.

The offense should be better. Penn State’s defense, given its elite performance a year ago, will likely take a small step back. How does it all shake out, then?

All things considered, Penn State’s fortunes are likely to fall somewhere in the middle if major injuries at key positions can be avoided in a way they weren’t a year ago. Highly competitive with a schedule that has a couple of heavyweights, but many more similarly matched opponents, Penn State begins the process of getting back on track this season.

Prediction: 9-3

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Thomas Frank Carr

Call me an optimist, but I see the floor for this team being around eight or nine wins. Let’s start with the offense. Quarterback Sean Clifford is at his worst when he’s unsure of his reads in a new offense. The last two seasons have proven that clearly. When he’s unsure, he presses and makes poor plays when holding onto the football. 

Despite that, he was alone in carrying the team last season and still kept it competitive in most games. Having more support from a talent-rich backfield and receiver corps should unburden him from carrying the entire load. The offensive line is young at key spots but has far more talent than last season.

On the other side of the ball, there are some concerns about transitioning to a new defense and a lack of proven pass rush. Yet, Penn State is stocked with young talent at edge defender. 

The secondary is in a precarious position in Manny Diaz’s system. The ultra-aggressive coordinator is bringing a fast-paced, in-your-face defense to Happy Valley. If the pass rush doesn’t get home, big plays can happen. Yet Penn State is talented in key areas like corner, safety and edge rusher. Nine wins feel like a reasonable bet, but a 10-win season is possible.

Prediction: 9-3

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Matt Herb

It would be unreasonable to expect Sean Clifford to do what Kenny Pickett did at Pitt last year, but the Nittany Lions don’t need their sixth-year senior quarterback to become a Heisman Trophy finalist in order to get the offense moving. They just need him to feel more comfortable in Year 2 under coordinator Mike Yurcich than he did in Year 1, and also to stay healthy. 

That latter point should not be underestimated. Even with all their difficulties running the football, the Lions would likely have won two more games last year if Clifford hadn’t gotten hurt, and their final regular-season record wouldn’t have looked nearly so unsightly at 9-3.  

Penn State averaged only 25 points per game and was held to 20 points or fewer in four Big Ten games, so it’s only natural to fixate on the offense going into the 2022 season. To me, though, the defense looks at least as worrisome. In addition to the dearth of proven pass-rushing experience, the linebacker corps appears perilously thin and possibly ill-equipped to handle offenses like Michigan’s that are going to pound away on the ground. 

It wouldn’t take a lot of defensive regression to undo the gains Penn State stands to make on offense. I think some regression is likely, so while the Lions will probably be better than they were a year ago, they won’t be dramatically better. An eight-or nine-win season sounds about right, and I always prefer to round down. 

Prediction: 8-4

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Greg Pickel

A new season is here for Penn State. Will the Lions perform better than their last two seasons, which resulted in a combined 11-11 record, in 2022? Or will this year feature more of the same frustrations that have riled up fans for what many feel is far too long?

There are plenty of positives to point to. Manny Diaz is bringing an aggressive defensive scheme to State College. Then, on offense, there is continuity between second-year coordinator Mike Yurcich and returning quarterback Sean Clifford. Add in some exciting newcomers like freshman running back Nick Singleton, and young players ready for bigger roles like third-year sophomore receiver Parker Washington and sophomore cornerback Kalen King, and there is reason for hope.

However, Clifford’s health status will hang over the program as it has the past two seasons. Also, there is no guarantee that stalwart senior defensive tackle PJ Mustipher will be back to his old form right away. Combine that with a brutal schedule and it’s easy to see valid concerns.

All told, Penn State will be better in the regular season, but still not in the Big Ten East conversation by the end of November.

Prediction: 9-3

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Ryan Snyder

As important as it is that Sean Clifford plays well at quarterback, to me, the running game on both sides of the ball is key. On offense, Penn State averaged just 108 yards rushing per game last year. Compare that to the three previous seasons, when it averaged 205 (2018), 191 (2019) and 174 (2020) yards per game. Defensively, the Lions finished 10th in the Big Ten in rushing yards allowed, surrendering 152 per game. Penn State allowed an average of just 95 yards rushing the year it won the Cotton Bowl.

IOn offense, I do think we’ll see improvement. The addition of Cornell transfer Hunter Nourzad, plus Sal Wormley‘s emergence this preseason will help up front. Sophomore tackle Olu Fashanu will have his growing pains at times, but he’ll eventually emerge as an NFL prospect over the next two seasons. Between Keyvone Lee, Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton, they can only get better compared to last year.

However, I’m not as confident defensively. The line was pushed around at times last year, and when you compare Arnold Ebikietie’s production to everyone else, he won’t be easy to replace. Add in some inexperienced linebackers and I think Penn State will struggle to slow down those quality programs.

The schedule isn’t easy on paper, although Purdue and Auburn have plenty of issues themselves. I think the Lions will start 2-0 but lose to both Ohio State and Michigan. That Auburn game feels like a toss-up, and PSU usually drops a game they shouldn’t. I’ll go 9-3.

Prediction: 9-3