Mailbag: When can Penn State fans expect more commitments?

Penn State’s coaches are wrapping up vacation this weekend.

As they head back to State College in the coming days, recruiting will once again ramp up, as we’re expecting next weekend to be a busy one at Penn State. In addition to hosting recruits, James Franklin and his staff will also welcome coaches from across the region for their annual chalk talk.

In today’s mailbag, I hit on the chances we see a commitment over the next seven weeks, as well as the Class of 2024 in Pennsylvania. I also dispel the notion that the 2021 class was a bad one for the Nittany Lions.

When are we getting more commits? – CuddleMonster

Spring practice has always been a fruitful period for Penn State under Franklin’s leadership.

If you go back to his first full class, the Class of 2015, the Nittany Lions landed at least one commitment in either March or April in every class. QB Drew Allar was the only player to commit to Penn State last year in those two months, but when you consider on-campus visits weren’t allowed, that certainly played a massive role in the numbers being down.

The Class of 2021 was actually one of the best runs we’ve ever seen in those months, with Penn State landing eight commitments. Of course, on-campus visits weren’t allowed then either. That run was spurred on by a host of defensive backs jumping on board at the same time. Jaylen Reed, Kalen King and Zakee Wheatley all committed within 24 hours of each other. That gave Jeffrey Davis Jr. a reason to decide about a week later to make sure he didn’t miss out.

The classes to really look at for accurate averages are the five that allowed unofficial and official visits during spring ball. From 2015 to 2020, Penn State earned 15 commitments in those months. 10 came in April, five came in March. If you don’t include that 2015 class, which featured three March commitments, 83 percent of those commitments came in April.

So, history tells us that there’s a high chance we’re going to see additions to the class over the next two months. More likely than not, they’ll come in April.

Who exactly is tough to say. Talk to me in a few weeks and I can give you a better answer.

What needs to happen for Penn State and CJF to look back on the Class of 2021 as a success? We all were told that class, essentially, sucked, compared to other recent classes, but how salvageable is it? – SaquonCappelletti

I think fans need to stop looking at that class as a bust.

For those who have followed me for years, I hope some of you remember how much I pounded the table at the time that 2021 was simply a small class in a ranking system that needed to be updated.

I look back fondly of my time at Rivals. I consider my colleagues there close friends and always will. With that said, some of those colleagues should remember me arguing with them in my final years there that their ranking system needed to be updated. It’s a simple system. Oftentimes, simple is good, but I don’t think it does a good job evaluating smaller classes, especially in the transfer portal era.

More and more schools are going to be holding back scholarships nowadays for high school recruits, which means we’ll be seeing smaller classes. In 2016, the national average of signees among Power Five schools was 23. It jumped in 2017, climbing to 24, then fell back to 23 again in 2018 and 2019. That’s when the portal was created. Since then, the average has dropped every year: 22 in 2020, 20 in 2021 and just 19 for 2022.

Personally, I like to look at average points per player (APP) more than just how many points a team accumulated total. That’s how you measure the actual talent a school brought in. If you look at that factor alone, Penn State’s class finished 14th in 2020.

Link: Catching up with Penn State DE target Mason Robinson

When I originally wrote this story, Penn State ranked 17th in APP after the 2021 early signing period. They then added four-star Davon Townley in February, bumping them up to No. 14. The Nittany Lions finished that class with 98.63 average points per player.

Now, let’s compare that to some of the schools who finished above them in Rivals’ rankings. The best example is Notre Dame. The Irish finished that class ninth overall in the Rivals Team Rankings, signing 27 players. Their average APP though was 88.074. That was good for 20th when you compare all of the schools average points per player. That’s a big difference in how we look at classes, I think.

Now of course, quantity does matter some, which is why I really love On3’s Team Rankings. In addition to using the rankings at all four sites, it also finds a middle ground between APP and quantity. That’s why On3 ranked Penn State’s 2021 class 19th overall.

I know many of you will say that’s still not good, but there was a lot of talented players in that class. In fact, I would argue that the Class of 2021 was actually better than the Class of 2020. Rivals ranked the 2020 class No. 15 overall, but its average points per player was 80.07. That’s a big difference compared to 98.63 a year later.

There are some really good players in that 2020 class who are already proving their worth. Landon Tengwall, Jaylen Reed, Kalen King are all aiming to be impact players, and others will surely emerge.

I think in a few years, as we get used to this updated team ranking at On3, fans will understand why I’m so excited about what we’re doing here.

Is it fair to say the 2024 recruiting class is loaded in both Pennsylvania and the region? – TFiddy

I haven’t dug too deep into the region yet for 2024. Once we get into summer camps, I’ll start looking at that more, but I do feel confident in saying that Pennsylvania should feature around 10 or so four-star players in that class.

I’ve talked about Belle Vernon Ath. Quinton Martin a lot since the fall. I think he’s on pace to be one of the best players we’ve seen from this state in the past few years. He should absolutely be considered for a five-star rating. Currently, he’s No. 12 in the On3 Consensus rankings.

Other players who certainly should be considered for four-star ratings include Penn State OL commit Cooper Cousins, St. Joseph’s Prep WR David Washington, as well as teammate CB Omillio Agard, Roman Catholic WR Tyseer Denmark, Malvern Prep OL Peter Jones and Central Catholic LB Anthony Speca. Martin, Cousins and Agard are already part of On3’s top 100. I feel pretty good in saying these guys should be On300 players. Personally, I’m very high on Speca. I think he’s already as good as some of the top 2023 linebackers we discuss regularly.

But there are a host of other players who will be considered. I think Imhotep Charter DL Jahsear Whittington is a pretty good player. At 6-foot, 255 pounds, if he can add another inch or two, I think it’ll help his recruitment a lot. When talking to Penn State sources, I get the impression that they’re pretty high on Neumann Gorretti DL Deshon Dodson, so he’ll be someone to watch as well. Aliquippa’s Cameron Lindsey is another player I like. At 6-0, 190, I think he’ll end up growing into a linebacker, but like Whittington, another inch or two would help his recruitment. I like what I’ve seen from Bishop McDevitt wide receiver Rico Scott, too.