Penn State-Ohio predictions: Lions set to open up home slate with MAC opponent

Penn State kicked off its 2022 season in dramatic fashion last Thursday, as quarterback Sean Clifford and the offense took the lead against Purdue with just 55 seconds left in the game. The Nittany Lions ultimately came out on top 35-31 in a game they had to have if Penn State is going to reach its potential in 2022.

Now, it’s time for the Nittany Nation to return to Beaver Stadium for the first time this season. As we see almost yearly, they’ll face a MAC opponent in September, opening up the home slate with a game against Ohio University. Overall, the Nittany Lions are 5-1 against Ohio all time, although the last meeting was one to forget for PSU, as Frank Solich and the Bobcats upset Bill O’Brien and his team in 2012, 24-14 inside Beaver Stadium.

So, how will this weekend’s game go? Our staff gives their predictions below.

Penn State-Ohio matchups: Who has the edge in the Lions’ home opener?

Nate Bauer (Season: 1-0; Last Week: 30-23 PSU)

Penn State gets two shots at inarguably lesser opponents this season. Saturday’s matchup with Ohio at Beaver Stadium is one of them. While the Bobcats aren’t going to repeat the dismal 3-9 season of 2021, their expected improvements in the MAC aren’t going to be enough to compete with the Nittany Lions.

In that vein, this is a crucial test for the Penn State football program toward its year-end goals. The commitment to developing depth by James Franklin and staff must be kept to, with or without the type of substantial lead they’d prefer to feel fully comfortable. Given the emotion of their thrilling win at Purdue in the opener, the Lions’ chance to start hot might take some time, but a healthy halftime advantage should break open by the end of the third quarter.

Penn State: 42

Ohio: 17

Thomas Frank Carr (Season: 1-0; Last Week: 34-28 PSU)

Ohio has a good collection of players, led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke. However, there’s a big difference between a good collection of players and a solid foundation to combat Penn State’s superior talent. PSU should handle Ohio and get a rare blowout victory, even if it plays depth players early in the game. 

Offensively, the Bobcats use every wrinkle and cheat code to hide their offensive line and get easy, cheap yards. It may be another week of teams avoiding Penn State’s pass rush, but the key will be to get them in third-down situations where they can’t. Penn State should be able to do that if it can keep Rourke in the pocket. 

Penn State: 45

Ohio: 17

Related: Expected recruiting visitors at Penn State this weekend

Sean Fitz (Season: 1-0; Last Week: 24-20 PSU)

Penn State will get a little extra time this week to look at the film and patch up some holes after Week 1. The Nittany Lions return home to Beaver Stadium at 1-0, and while there was plenty to nitpick against the Boilermakers, that’s the important part. Penn State now will welcome MAC foe Ohio, which put up 41 points and 345 yards through the air last week against Florida Atlantic.

The Bobcats will try to run it a little more than Purdue, but Penn State’s defense adjusted during the game last week and was playing pretty well by the final whistle. The offense, of course, is always under the microscope. It would be nice to see the running game get some traction and gain some confidence with a couple of big runs. Penn State should be able to play more guys and explore its depth on both sides of the ball this weekend. Hopefully, the Nittany Lions are able to set the tone early. 

Penn State: 38

Ohio: 17

Matt Herb (Season: 1-0; Last Week: 31-27 PSU)

I could see Penn State continuing to prioritize its ground game Saturday against Ohio in the hope of hitting the kind of explosive plays that eluded it on opening night at Purdue, when its longest run from scrimmage was a 12-yard carry by Keyvone Lee. If the Nittany Lions struggle again, they’ll give Bobcats quarterback Kurtis Rourke and company a chance to hang in there and make this game more competitive than PSU fans would surely prefer.

That said, Ohio has gone winless in its past five games against Power Five opponents, with an average margin of defeat of 19.2 points. The Bobcats were outscored 64-14 in their two Power Five matchups last year, falling to Syracuse and Northwestern, teams that combined to win eight games in 2021.

PSU may or may not get its ground game moving on Saturday, but it’s got enough speed, size and depth on both sides of the ball to handily avoid an upset in its home opener.

Penn State: 38

Ohio: 17

Related: Watch Penn State head coach James Franklin’s Tuesday press conference

Greg Pickel (Season: 1-0; Last Week: 27-20 PSU)

Penn State lost its last meeting against Ohio at Beaver Stadium. However, we can confidently say that history will not repeat itself. The Nittany Lions are in a much different place compared to 2012 when the Bobcats stunned them 24-14. Head coach Tim Albin’s MAC side does have some playmakers, led by talented quarterback Kurtis Rourke.

But, from top to bottom, this PSU team is better than Saturday’s opponent, and it will show over the course of four quarters. Expect the Lions to have success on the ground and through the air while Manny Diaz’s defense snaps up a few turnovers to help pave a path for numerous young players to see time late in the contest.

Penn State: 45

Ohio: 17

Ryan Snyder (Season: 1-0; Last Week: 35-27 PSU)

Penn State will open up Beaver Stadium with a noon ET kick against a MAC opponent following a dramatic, come-from-behind victory with the whole nation watching last Thursday.

What could possibly go wrong this weekend?

Truthfully, I don’t expect much, but I do think Ohio could stick around a bit early. Penn State has gotten off to slow starts in these situations before. Last year, the first half against Villanova wasn’t the Nittany Lions’ best effort. That, of course, followed the game against Auburn. In 2019, the game against Buffalo didn’t come the week after a marquee, but the Bulls still led at halftime. The year before that, we saw Appalachian State come into Beaver Stadium. I don’t need to remind you guys about that game.

The Lions will win on Saturday, but there’s a history of them getting off to slow starts in these kinds of games. I know many of you want to bet Penn State -24.5, but I’d recommend staying away from it this week. There are plenty of games left this season to bet your team. That number feels spot on to me.

Penn State: 38

Ohio: 14