Penn State-Purdue predictions: Can Lions win their season opener?

Penn State will hit the road for the second consecutive year to begin its season Thursday night. After defeating Wisconsin last year in Madison, 16-10, the Nittany Lions will now take on Purdue to open the 2022 season.

Under James Franklin’s leadership, the Lions are 2-0 against the Boilermakers, winning in both 2016 and 2019. Both games have been lopsided, too, with Penn State winning by a combined score of 97-31. Overall, the Lions have won nine in a row over Purdue. Their last loss was back in 2004.

So, how will this week’s game play out? Our staff gives their predictions here.

Penn State-Purdue matchups: Who has the edge in this year’s season opener?

Nate Bauer

The chasm between potential and on-field performance is an unknown going into any season. And, in Penn State’s case, that seems to be especially true this year. 

True freshmen and transfers have shaken up the program, putting themselves in a position to push starters to be better or, in some cases, outright win jobs. But unproven players have to actually do it before any of the behind-the-scenes expectations matter much.

The difference in looking at this game with Purdue is that there are fewer bridges to span toward achieving that potential. Yes, quarterback play, the offensive line, and Mike Yurcich all have to take big steps. Manny Diaz and Stacy Collins both have big shoes to fill at their respective coordinator positions, too. Still, it’s not particularly difficult to envision all of that happening.

Purdue has a solid quarterback and many, many more unanswered questions coming into this game. A home-field advantage and an electric atmosphere are both to the Boilermakers’ benefit. They won’t be enough to slow down Penn State’s offensive improvements or defensive carryover, though.

Penn State: 30

Purdue: 23

Thomas Frank Carr

This game doesn’t have to be a battle of sixth-year quarterbacks. Penn State has the talent and depth to play a balanced game on both sides of the football and beat Purdue without relying on theatrics from Sean Clifford.

But when the opposing team has a quarterback capable of putting up gaudy stats and big-time throws like Purdue has with Aidan O’Connell, the Boilermakers will be competitive in almost any game they play. So, if it does come down to a duel of quarterbacks, Penn State is at a disadvantage. However, despite throwing for 3,700 yards last season, O’Connell also tied for the Big Ten lead in interceptions with 11. Getting that player to show up on Saturday would be key for the Penn State defense.

Conversely, Purdue’s Cover 0, all-out blitz scheme is about overloading with pressure and creating one-on-one matchups for each pass rusher. There’s no George Karlaftis on this roster to win those situations and dominate in run defense. With that in mind, Penn State should be able to keep Clifford clean and play a balanced game with its new, explosive running backs. The Nittany Lions will still give up yardage and points, but they should win.

Penn State: 34

Purdue: 28

Between the Lines: Top Penn State takeaways from James Franklin’s Monday news conference

Matt Herb

Penn State is 111-22-2 in season openers. It is 15-3-1 all-time against Purdue and carries a nine-game winning streak against the Boilermakers into this week’s visit to West Lafayette. It is led by a sixth-year senior quarterback who is getting ready to start his fourth season opener. There is every reason to feel good about the Nittany Lions’ chances in this game.

And yet …

The way the Lions ended their 2021 season, coupled with the way that the Boilermakers ended their season — with a rousing win over Tennessee in the Music City Bowl in which Aidan O’Connell threw for 534 yards and 5 touchdowns — can’t help but give pause.  

I doubt that Penn State fixed all the problems that led to losses in six of its final eight games last year, but it may have fixed enough of them to justify picking a slim road victory to start the new season. 

Penn State: 31

Purdue: 27

Greg Pickel

Penn State is a deserving favorite ahead of Thursday’s opener at Purdue. The Nittany Lions have fared well in this series, and there’s no reason to think that will change this time around. The Boilermakers do have a veteran quarterback and hopes of another high-powered offense. But, they have many pieces to replace. And, Penn State has a talent edge across the board in our view. Look for Sean Clifford to have a big game, the receivers to go wild, and the defense to shut the home side down when it matters most.

Penn State: 27

Purdue: 17 

Staff Predictions: How many games will Penn State win in 2022?

Ryan Snyder

There’s been a lot of talk about the players Purdue lost – notably David Bell and George Karlaftis – but its the Boilermakers who return more overall starters, with seven on each side of the ball. Penn State has dominated this series though, winning nine in a row going all the way back to 2004. The Lions are also 6-3 against the spread in those nine games, for those wondering.

None of that means a whole lot for Thursday’s game, but let’s be honest, there are a ton of questions about both teams leading into this one. If Penn State is going to reach expectations this year — I think most fans want to see at least nine wins — this is a game they have to have. I think they’ll get it, but I’d be lying if I said I had a great read on this one. Is the offensive line better? Are Jonathan Sutherland and Tyler Elsdon ready to play linebacker? Can the freshman running backs hit the ground running?

On the flip side, does Purdue have a running game? If they don’t, I like Penn State’s secondary up against an offense that lost its biggest weapons. WR Milton Wright being ruled academically ineligible is pretty important according to those close to the program. You add in defensive coordinator Brad Lambert’s decision to leave Purdue for Wake Forest and that’s another big question mark in favor of PSU.

We’ll find out soon enough. I’ll take Penn State -3.

Penn State: 35

Purdue: 27