Penn State-Northwestern matchups: Who will have the edge at Beaver Stadium?

Penn State welcomes Northwestern to Beaver Stadium on Saturday. It marks the second Big Ten game for each school. The Lions are a perfect 4-0 while the Wildcats are off to a disappointing 1-3 start. That includes a 17-13 setback against Miami of Ohio that brings the Big Ten West team’s losing streak to three games. It has not been victorious since beating Nebraska in its opener.

“I’m concerned when we don’t win,” Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald told reporters back on Saturday. “Let me be very clear on that. We’ve had the same recipe with three straight games.

“I don’t think we have a practice problem right now. The guys are working incredibly hard. We’re just not executing on gameday for whatever reason. I start with us first as coaches.”

It’s time to breakdown the matchups prior to kickoff, which is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. ESPN will televise the contest. And, while rain from Hurricane Ian was once a concern, Penn State-Northwestern should not feature rain after some showers earlier in the day.

When Penn State has the ball

Northwestern is slightly better against the pass than the run. That said, it does not exactly thrive in either area. Or, it hasn’t so far, at least.

We expect the Wildcats to possibly try and emulate Central Michigan’s game plan from a week ago. The Chippewas frequently crowded the line of scrimmage while playing cover zero. Penn State was rarely able to burn the MAC team’s lack of deep coverage, though. Northwestern undoubtedly does not want its rush defense, which is the second worst in the Big Ten, to be gashed repeatedly. Thus, it would make sense for defensive coordinator Jim O’Neill to crowd the box and hope his secondary can hold up.

Linebacker Bryce Gallagher leads the Northwestern defense. He has 38 stops to date and is frequently around the ball. Penn State running backs will be expected to find him in some one-on-one situations and they will need to win those matchups. Cameron Mitchell is the team’s top corner. He has five passes defended to date, which puts him inside the top five of the Big Ten.

All told, this is not a defense Penn State should fear. It has given up 28 points or more three times this season to far lesser offenses than the one it will see on Saturday. The biggest key will be avoiding the misses, either due to bad throws or drops, that plagued the unit last week. There were big plays to be had that were left on the field. If there is even marginal improvement in that regard this week, Penn State should have no problem both moving the ball and putting up more than enough points to win and possibly even cover the nearly four-touchdown spread.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Lions are on defense

Here are some stats that help paint the picture of what Manny Diaz’s Penn State defense will be facing on Saturday:

• Northwestern has the Big Ten’s second-worst scoring offense with an average of 23 points per game.
• The Wildcats are No. 10 in the conference with an average of just 141 yards on the ground per game. But, and it’s in part because of how often they’ve trailed, they are No. 3 in passing with 304.8 yards per game in that category.
• Sacks and turnovers have not been a huge problem this season. But, they’ve come at crucially bad times for Fitzgerald’s side.

Offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian is in his third season as the Wildcats’ play caller. Transfer passer Ryan Hillinski was good in the season-opening win but has been a bit up-and-down ever since. He is completing about 62 percent of his passes but sports a five-to-three touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio. That’s held the Wildcats’ offense back. On the ground, Evan Hull and Cam Porter have been used plenty and combined for five touchdowns so far. The top receiver is Hull by statistics. But in terms of that actual position, it’s Malik Washington, who has 27 receptions for 305 yards and a score.

Northwestern will try and do a lot of short passing to get its play makers in space with hopes that they can either outrun defenders or make them miss to move the sticks. Penn State must tackle well in this game and also handle motions, trades, and shifts successfully. Hillinski is no world beater but if given time he can cut down on the number of mistakes and keep Saturday’s visitors in the game. Still, we’ve seen too many miscues to think that Diaz’s defense will face great stress in this contest. Finally, the matchup we are most interested in is Northwestern star left tackle Peter Skoronski opposite the Penn State defensive ends.

EDGE: Penn State

Final word

It’s always hard to know what to make of Northwestern. While they have typically been better in even years than odd under Fitzgerald for whatever reason, the start to this season seems to be a continuation of last year’s woeful trend. It would have been hard to believe a month ago that Penn State would be closer to a 30-point favorite than 15, but that’s the case after four weeks.

All told, this should be a resounding Lions victory and a confidence builder heading into an early bye week.