Penn State vs. Northwestern Predictions: What should fans expect against Wildcats?

Penn State is just one week out from a much-deserved bye week, but before the Nittany Lions can get some rest before a massive second half of the season, James Franklin and his team will head to Evanston, Ill., Saturday for an 11 a.m. local time kickoff against Northwestern.

Ranked No. 6 in the nation in the Associated Press Poll, Penn State finds itself as a heavy favorite against the Wildcats, as the spread opened at 21.5 points and has now rocketed all the way to 27.5. Despite having an interim head coach in David Braun, Northwestern has already surpassed its win total from last season, going 2-2 in its first four games. Last week Minnesota blew a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter and ultimately lost in overtime to the Wildcats, 37-34.

That win should give Northwestern some confidence, but overall, Penn State is 15-5 all-time in the series, winning the past two meetings. Last year’s game was a sloppy one at Beaver Stadium, but Penn State did pull out a 17-7 victory in the rain. You have to go back to 2017 to find the last time Penn State played in Evanston. The Nittany Lions won that game 31-7.

So what should fans expect on Saturday? Our staff gives their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season 4-0)

Through four games this season, Penn State has gradually settled into becoming an offense it doesn’t necessarily want to be but needs to have the ability to become. That’s a good thing for the Nittany Lions moving forward.

Saturday at Northwestern, they finally get an opportunity to break out. The Wildcat defense has steadily become more susceptible to explosive plays, and for a Penn State team that has craved the homerun but hasn’t had the chance at it, this should be a feeding frenzy.

The Northwestern, Ryan Field, being your own energy storyline is real. So, getting off to a hot start could be a challenge. But, over four quarters, the combination of Penn State’s offensive potency with a defense that isn’t likely to be challenged significantly by the Wildcat offense should create the conditions for another comfortable win.

Penn State: 42
Northwestern: 10

Sean Fitz (Season: 4-0)

A slow start would be understandable from the Nittany Lions this week, coming off of a White Out demolition of Iowa. That said, the defense should be pretty fresh after Saturday night. The Nittany Lions are clearly the better side, and although Northwestern had an inspired comeback last weekend against Minnesota, the Wildcats don’t have the horses to run with Penn State on either side of the ball.

Penn State has been able to score points in different ways this year, but fans have lamented the lack of the true big play so far through four games. That could be something that changes this weekend against the Wildcats, who have the No. 12 overall defense in the Big Ten and the worst rushing defense in the conference. Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen have been close, and with the Penn State offensive line playing well, those holes should be just a bit bigger this weekend than they were against the Hawkeyes.

Credit to Northwestern interim head coach David Braun, as the Wildcats aren’t the complete dumpster fire that many projected this season. He’s already surpassed Pat Fitzgerald’s win total from a year ago. His group will struggle to move the ball this weekend, however.

Penn State: 45
Northwestern: 7

Thomas Frank Carr (4-0)

Penn State has struggled to get things popping on the ground, but the Northwestern defense could be just what the doctor ordered. The Wildcats have averaged 187.5 yards and given up 20 explosive runs of 10 yards through four games. Looking at the game film, you can see why that is. The team has some tough-minded defensive tackles and linebackers, but gap-sound play has eluded them this season.

Against Minnesota, they played an aggressive defense style and tried to flood the box late with safeties and linebackers instead of the soft coverages Penn State has seen so far. There’s no guarantee that they’ll copy the same game plan from last week, but the signs are there that this is a game for Singleton and Allen to go off.

With that running game humming, it could quickly become a bad afternoon where Penn State puts its full strength on display, with Allar having more opportunities to throw deep. We’ll go with a big point total in this one.

Penn State: 51
Northwestern: 10

Matt Herb (Season: 4-0)

I keep expecting someone to crack the code and find a way to put a few successful drives together against Penn State’s defense. Through the season’s first four weeks, though, the Nittany Lions had given up only five touchdowns, and two of them came late in the fourth quarter of games whose outcome had essentially been decided.

Minnesota probably thought the outcome had been decided when it took a 31-10 lead into the fourth quarter of its matchup against Northwestern last weekend, but the Wildcats fought back and eventually won in overtime. Their comeback should ensure that Franklin has everyone’s full attention when he stresses the need to play a 60-minute game this Saturday. Still, Northwestern is last in the Big Ten in both rushing offense and rushing defense. That’s not a template for success against a top-10 opponent. As long as it avoids turnovers, something it’s done quite well so far, Penn State should keep rolling in Evanston.

Penn State: 34
Northwestern: 13

Greg Pickel (Season: 4-0)

FanDuel inexplicably opened this line and took action on it at 21.5. As of a last check, the line had soared to 27.5 points. It could still climb higher by kickoff. Penn State can only lose this game, and Northwestern can only stay in it if the Lions hurt themselves as they did on various occasions at Illinois. The difference between that game and this one is the Wildcats do not have superior pass rushers like the Fighting Illini did.

The Lions should be able to run for as many yards as they desire and eat up the Northwestern attack when on defense. Weather conditions won’t be an issue, either. Even if Penn State starts slow in the first half, the Lions will glide away from their second road opponent before long and have the backups in early in the fourth quarter, if not before.

Penn State: 41
Northwestern: 7

Ryan Snyder (Season: 4-0)

Penn State’s run game has been a popular topic through the first few weeks of the season. Averaging 4.4 yards per carry, the Nittany Lions rank ninth in the Big Ten in that category. With two future NFL backs in Singleton and Allen, fans naturally expected a few more explosive plays.

I think Northwestern could end up being that breakout game, as the Wildcats have allowed 738 yards on the ground through four games, which is the most in the conference. Penn State’s offensive line played great this past week against Iowa, and I don’t believe Northwestern’s defensive front seven should provide much havoc.

Offensively, the Wildcats showed some life in last week’s upset over Minnesota, but they scored just seven points against Rutgers and 14 against Duke. Now they’re up against the best defense they’ll see all season since both Michigan and Ohio State aren’t on the schedule.

I expect the Nittany Lions to rotate quite a bit after getting out to a four-score lead. Northwestern may find a way to put up points late, but this one should be wrapped up in the third quarter.

Penn State: 42
Northwestern: 10