Penn State-Northwestern predictions: How college football experts, computer data systems are picking the game

No. 6 Penn State (4-0) puts its undefeated streak on the line today at Northwestern (2-2). The Nittany Lions are a 26.5-point favorite ahead of their first game at Ryan Field since 2017. All-time, PSU is 15-5 against the Wildcats and riding a two-game winning streak. And, the Lions are 7-3 in games played in Evanston.

“These guys are 2-0 win at home,” Penn State coach James Franklin said Wednesday night. You look at Northwestern, they’ve typically had good home records. Why? Because it can be challenging to play there.

“They’re used to the environment. Other people may not be. It’s going to be very different than what we played in last week. So just being transparent and honest. A we internally motivated? Are we externally motivated. But, for me to act like it’s not a factor, it is. You got to get prepared for it.”

Will the Lions cover another massive spread? Here’s how college football experts and computer data system see the contest unfolding.

Computer model picks for Penn State-Northwestern

At ESPN, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 37-9 Penn State victory.

Over at Sports Line, the Lions are projected to win and cover with a final score of 36-8.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock has the Lions winning 36-10.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Lions an 93.4 percent chance to win outright. But, it only predicts a 23-point victory, which would equal a Northwestern cover.

And, The Dunkle Index projects a 36-point margin of victory for Penn State and an over call with a total points projection of 52. The listed number is 46.

Lions-Wildcats picks from a national perspective

Bill Bender of Sporting News predicts a Penn State win and cover with a final score of 38-10.

“The Nittany Lions beat the Wildcats 17-7 last season in a turnover-plagued game in the rain,” Bender writes. “Saturday’s forecast is clear, and Penn State has flashed a Big Ten championship team on both sides. Quarterback Drew Allar is coming off a four-TD performance. This is a tough spot for the Wildcats, even after a wild come-from-behind victory. The Nittany Lions improve to 5-0.”

CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm picks the Nittany Lions to cover the massive spread. Pete Fiutak at College Football News agrees. He, like Bender, calls for a 38-10 final.

“Be stunned if Northwestern can do anything on the ground, but as long as it doesn’t start turning the ball over – Penn State with 11 takeaways over the last three games – it can stay in this,” Fiutak writes.

“The weather will be perfect, Penn State fans should invade Ryan Field, and the visitors will methodically get through in a business-like manner without any real concerns after the first few drives.”

Local beat writers pick Penn State-Northwestern

At PennLive, all six pickers, including guest Bradley Locker from InsideNU, picked a Penn State win. They were 5-1 in deciding that the Nittany Lions would cover the spread.

“Part of me is tempted to think that Northwestern could maybe make this a close game, because Penn State’s offense hasn’t looked in complete rhythm yet, and the ‘Cats have a solid receiver room and secondary,” Locker writes. “But the Nittany Lions truly present a totally different animal. I struggle to foresee how NU will be able to generate much of anything offensively.”

Audrey Snyder of The Athletic calls for a 48-14 Penn State win. That would also equal a cover and ensure the over hits.

“Penn State has superior talent on both sides of the ball, giving this a chance to be one of its most lopsided games all season,” Snyder writes.

Last but not least, all four pickers for The Daily Collegian call for a Nittany Lions win and cover.

How the Blue-White Illustrated staff is picking Lions-Wildcats

Nate Bauer: Penn State 42, Northwestern 10
Sean Fitz: PSU 45, Northwestern 7
Thomas Frank Carr: PSU 51, Northwestern 10
Matt Herb: PSU 34, Northwestern 13
Greg Pickel: PSU 41, Northwestern 7
Ryan Snyder: PSU 42, Northwestern 10