Penn State-Notre Dame Matchups: Who will have the edge in the Orange Bowl?

By Greg Pickel

Penn State meets Notre Dame in a College Football Playoff semifinal at the Orange Bowl on Jan. 9. Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. The all-time series is deadlocked at 9-9-1. One side will claim their 10th victory over the other at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami while also clinching a spot in this season’s title game.

“I’ve got a lot of respect for Coach [James] Franklin and the job he’s done at Penn State and at Vandy before that. It’s a very talented, disciplined, tough football team,” Fighting Irish coach Marcus Freeman said Saturday. “Very creative offense that utilizes a bunch of different personnels, a bunch of different formations. It’s going to force you to be extremely disciplined in terms of your eyes and your adjustments in terms of defensive football. I think their tight end, [Tyler] Warren, is one of the best players in college football, period, regardless of position. 

“Very impressed by the film I’ve seen of him. Both of their running backs are extremely good players and both of them are home run threats.They’re power runners, they’ve got speed, good balance, they’re tough. I think they’re extremely talented players. And the quarterback is playing as well as he has all season. He’s playing confident, he’s throwing the ball well and making really good decisions, staying in the pocket, and delivering good balls. So, their offense is going to present a great challenge for us.”

Who will have the edge on Thursday night? We dive into the matchups below.

When Penn State is on offense

Notre Dame enters this contest with the nation’s No. 2 scoring defense. It has allowed just 13.6 points per game. The Fighting Irish are No. 8 in total defense, No. 5 in passing defense, and No. 34 in rushing defense. They are also No. 5 in third-down defense, No. 5 in red zone defense, and No. 1 in turnovers gained with a whopping 31 (18 interceptions and 13 fumbles). This is one of the best defenses Penn State will face this year. From a statistical perspective, only Ohio State might be better.

Fighting Irish safety Xavier Watts is an All-American, and Penn State alum Al Golden’s unit has overcome plenty of injury issues this season. Its top defensive tackle, Howard Cross, has a lower-body injury but looks likely to play. The Lions are likely to take a ground-heavy approach in this contest. They should find success with their two 1,000-yard rushers, and that will be key, as thriving through the air will be a major challenge. Notre Dame’s defense is No. 1 in expected points added against the pass but No. 46 in the same category against the run. It’s not overly stellar in the pass-rushing department either.

This will be the toughest test Penn State has faced on offense so far in the playoff. If Drew Allar is accurate, penalties are minimized, and Andy Kotelnicki sticks to the run, the Lions will be fine. This is a tough call, though. In the end, we think the Fighting Irish have the slightest of advantages in this matchup.

EDGE: Notre Dame

When the Nittany Lions are on defense

This matchup is hard to handicap. It’s unclear whether Penn State All-America defensive end Abdul Carter will play and if he will be 100 percent if he does. For Notre Dame, star running back Jermeiyah Love is dinged up and, while he is expected to play, he is not likely to be 100 percent. Both units will obviously be greatly impacted by how much either can play.

With all of that said, Penn State, like Notre Dame, owns one of the nation’s best defenses. The Fighting Irish bring nation’s No. 4 scoring offense to Miami. And, they are No. 11 in rushing offense but No. 108 in passing offense. Quarterback Riley Leonard has no problem pulling the ball down to run, but he struggles to generate chunk plays through the air. He does not turn the ball over, at least. Tight end Cooper Flanagan was hurt for the Sugar Bowl and is now out for the year, which will hinder ND in the run and pass games, as he was a big part of both.

With the status of Love in question, we have questions about how well the Notre Dame run game will work. Penn State has been exposed at times through the air, but Leonard and company do not inspire the same confidence to be able to replicate that as other attacks have. Thus, even with Carter’s status in question, we give the Lions the advantage here.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–Like Penn State, Notre Dame has not had a ton of success in the return game this season and it’s not likely to play a big role for either side in this contest.

–Fighting Irish kicker Mitch Jeter has had an up-and-down season. He is 11 of 18 on the year but has hit 5 of 6 in the playoff after finishing the regular season with three consecutive misses.

–Watts’ six interceptions are the second most in the country. He returned one of them for a touchdown.

Final word on Penn State-Notre Dame

This has all the makings of an instant classic. Both sides enter the game with key question marks but also clear strengths. The Fighting Irish are a short favorite, but this game could easily be a pick ’em. In the end, these two teams are about as evenly matched as they could possibly be.