Penn State-Notre Dame predictions: How computer data systems, college football experts, see the game

MIAMI– No. 6 Penn State and No. 7 Notre Dame meet today in a College Football Playoff semifinal round matchup at Hard Rock Stadium, which is home to the Orange Bowl. The 13-2 Nittany Lions are a 1.5-point underdog, and the over/under betting total is 44.5. points. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Our weekly picks roundup gives you one final, comprehensive look at what data systems and experts believe before kickoff. And, as always, be sure to check your sportsbook of choice for any line changes, and remember to play responsibly!

Computer model picks for Penn State-Notre Dame

ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 25-25 final score when rounding came into play. When using decimal points, he picks Penn State to win by .3 points. That would be a Nittany Lion cover is a pick for the over.

Sportsline sees a 25-23 Nittany Lions triumph. That’s a pick for the over, as well.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 24-24 final score. His model also has the Lions ahead of the Fighting Irish by mere decimal points. It’s also another score that would mean the over hits.

Finally, The Dunkel Index projects a 3-point Penn State win. It likes the under, as it calls for 41 total points in the contest.

Lions-Fighting Irish picks from a national perspective

Bill Bender of The Sporting News likes the under and calls for a 23-20 Notre Dame win. He writes:

“Will Notre Dame generate a passing attack with Leonard, who is 38 of 56 (67.9%) and averages 145.5 passing yards in two playoff games? Receiver Jordan Faison has been a favorite target, but the Irish are built around the running game with Leonard, Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price and Aneyas Williams. All three running backs average 6.0 yards per carry or more, and Leonard averages 55 rushing yards per game in the CFP. How does Penn State slow that running game down? All-American edge rusher Abdul Carter suffered an apparent left arm injury in the second round. Will he play for the Nittany Lions? 

“The Irish are 4-0-1 ATS when favored by seven points or less this season. The Nittany Lions are in an underdog role – where they are 0-6 S/U and 1-5 ATS since 2022. Turnovers will be the key, and we think the Irish will win that battle and squeak out a victory, perhaps on a walk-off field goal by Mitch Jeter.”

Matchups: Who will have the edge in the Orange Bowl?

At Bleacher Report, David Kenyon sees a close contest that the Fighting Irish prevail in 24-19.

“Seriously, if the defenses play as anticipated, the result will be decided at the margins; in particular, think red-zone efficiency and turnovers,” he writes. “Penn State has a slight edge in the former, while ND is more adept at creating takeaways. This clash is essentially a statistical wash. I’m leaning toward Notre Dame because of a more versatile rushing attack with quarterback Riley Leonard, but I wouldn’t blink if you prefer Penn State in such an even game.”

FOX Sports analyst Joel Klatt is siding with Notre Dame, too.

“I don’t know if Penn State has learned a lesson,” he says. “Why have they not had the tipping point victory? Because of things like this. Because you can’t overcome yourself and the opponents all the time in these games. You’ve got to play it correctly. So I’m going to trust Notre Dame in this game. I think it’s going to be tight. I think that Notre Dame wins 24-20, I think they cover the 1.5, it’s somewhat low scoring, I think it’s going to be a great game, and I can’t wait for it.”

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-Notre Dame

At The Centre Daily Times, Jon Sauber has it Penn State 21, Notre Dame 20.

“I could go either way with this game,” he writes. “I don’t think there will be a ton of points scored, and I tend to believe it will come down to the fourth quarter. Beyond that, who’s to say. These teams play very similarly and rely on dominant defenses to carry them. I’ll give Penn State the advantage because it can create more in the passing game, giving the Nittany Lions a better chance at creating game-changing plays.”

Frank Bodani picks it 21-17 in favor of the Fighting Irish.

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Fighting Irish

Nate Bauer: PSU: 26, Notre Dame: 20
Sean Fitz: PSU: 26, ND: 23
Thomas Frank Carr: PSU: 31, Notre Dame 27
Matt Herb: Notre Dame: 24, PSU: 20
Greg Pickel: PSU: 24, ND: 20
Ryan Snyder: PSU: 24, Notre Dame: 20