Penn State-Ohio State Matchups: Who will have the edge in high-stakes battle?

By Greg Pickel

A Penn State-Ohio State clash that might just end up unlike any of the ones before it in the James Franklin and Ryan Day eras in State College and Columbus, respectively, is on deck for Saturday at Beaver Stadium. Both sides enter the contest with injury questions. The Nittany Lions are unbeaten and the Buckeyes have just one loss, albeit to the No. 1 team in the country by one point on the road. Oddsmakers have installed the visitors as a 3.5-point favorite for this weekend’s contest, which starts at Noon ET on FOX.

“Obviously we all know this is going to be a challenge,” Franklin said on Monday. “We’re going to need a tremendous environment in that stadium on Saturday. Home-field advantage is going to be something that is going to be very, very important for us. So we need this place rocking no matter what time the game is. We need a great environment. Need everybody in the stadium early. We need that place rocking. We need everybody standing and screaming on third down and critical downs and possessions. This is going to be an all-hands-on-deck game.”

Let’s dive into the matchups.

When Penn State is on offense

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: Three questions impact this matchup greatly. Two are on the Penn State side of things. Will quarterback Drew Allar and/or right tackle Anthony Donkoh play, and will they be 100 percent if they do? Then, on the Ohio State side of things, the same question must be asked and answered of safety Lathan Ransom, who sat out last week. It goes without saying that anything and everything written below could end up being thrown on the window based on Saturday’s availability report. We will work from the standpoint of Allar and Ransom being in but not fully healthy (and, frankly, many other players aren’t at this point of the year either) while labeling Donkoh as a true question mark.

The Buckeyes defense has not played to their standard against the run in recent weeks but still has the No. 6 rush defense nationally. Which version shows up is a major key in this matchup with Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen, and potentially Beau Pribula waiting to try and grind down the Big Ten foe. The big concern here is that there is a drop-off from Donkoh to backup right tackle Nolan Rucci, which could hinder things. But, one also must respect Andy Kotelnicki’s ability to try and scheme around that. He has a long, proven track record of being adept at emphasizing strengths and covering up weaknesses. Oregon crushed Ohio State through the air, which is something Allar would likely do a better job of than Pribula. But, the latter might just make this offense more dynamic. You saw flashes of that at Wisconsin in the second half.

More: Ohio State injury updates; what do the Buckeyes’ coaches see in Penn State?

Ransom’s status is enormous in this game. His return would allow Ohio State to align its personnel the way coordinator Jim Knowles thinks is best. Without him, it would be more of a patchwork situation than they would like. Regardless, you do not need to be Nick Saban or Bill Belichick to realize the third down stats are likely to have an overwhelming impact on this game. PSU enters it with the No. 7 offense when it comes to converting those and Ohio State the No. 20 defense in stopping them. The side that wins out will win this matchup.

It’s very tempting to pick Penn State to have the edge here based on what we’ve seen the last two weeks from the Buckeyes defense. Two things are holding us back. The first is the full-game outlook for Allar and Donkoh. The second is the Lions’ starting field position rows. GameOnPaper.com says the offense’s starting field position is its own 25, and the Buckeyes’ average on defense is the opponent’s 26. Long drives have somehow not hurt this PSU attack yet. This is the day it finally might, and, combined with the health issues, it gives the Buckeyes the slimmest of advantages.

EDGE: Ohio State

When the Nittany Lions are on defense

Ohio State will be faced with two unappealing options up front on Saturday. It can either start a certainly not 100 percent  Zen Michalski at left tackle and deal with whatever that looks like. Or, it can move left guard Donovan Jackson out there and likely weaken the interior of its offensive line in the process by bringing second-year blocker Luke Mongtomery in at guard to replace him. However the chips fall, Penn State will have an edge in the trenches, with or without Dani Dennis-Sutton. And, it could be a very big day for Zane Durant.

The Buckeyes have one of if not the sport’s most exciting young players in receiver Jeremiah Smith. His 35 catches for 623 yards and eight touchdowns have somehow made stud playmaker Emeka Egbuka (43-546-6) and second-year contributor Carnell Tate (19-334-2) something of an afterthought when this team is discussed nationally. Make no mistake: The Penn State secondary will be tested on Saturday and must answer the bell. Then, its front seven must deal with the two-headed monster of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. The duo was hardly effective last week due in part to the offensive line shakeup, and now they face one of the nation’s best run defenses.

Penn State will likely try to bottle up the Buckeyes’ talented rushers and force quarterback Will Howard and the passing attack to beat it. Ohio State has skewed heavily toward the ground game in every game, but the Oregon loss this season. The chess match between Chip Kelly and Tom Allen will be fascinating. The Lions must be able to adjust quickly, and prey on the Buckeyes’ beat-up offensive line.

Those issues, combined with the belief that Howard is not the passer to take full advantage of Ohio State’s scary group of receivers and the fact that Penn State’s defense is among the nation’s best, have us leaning toward the home side in this particular matchup.

EDGE: Penn State

Special teams factoids to know

–Ohio State has kicked just three field goals this year. Jayden Fielding is 3 of 4, though he’s 36 of 36 on extra point tries. Will he be able to come through in the clutch in a hostle road environment if needed?

–Joe McGuire handles the punting for the Buckeyes. He does a fine job. If Penn State can get anything out of its punt return game (it hasn’t so far this season), the Lions could find an edge here. But, we wouldn’t count on it.

–SP+ ranks OSU as the No. 51 special teams unit and PSU is at No. 81. Mistakes in this area of the game is probably the only way either unit greatly impacts the contest. Brandon Iniss can be dangerous as a return man. And the Buckeyes allow few kickoff returns, so don’t expect Penn State to get anything going on that front this week, either, though, if they do, it could tilt things in its favor.

Final word on Penn State-Ohio State

This game has all the makings of an instant classic. Could it be a sloppy one, or at the very least, perhaps a game that some might consider boring? With key health issues on both sides, the answer is that it is certainly a possibility. Much is at stake for both programs. We’ll reiterate that whoever wins the third down battle probably wins the game. And, many observers think the contest will be decided by three points or less. We absolutely agree.