Penn State-Ohio State predictions: How computer data systems, college football experts, see the game

STATE COLLEGE — No. 3 Penn State and No. 4 Ohio State are now just hours away from kickoff at Beaver Stadium. The Nittany Lions continue to be a 3.5-point underdog, while the total sits at 45.5 points on a perfect fall day for football in State College. Who will win, and who will cover?

Our weekly picks roundup gives you one final, comprehensive look at what data systems and experts believe before kickoff. And, as always, be sure to check your sportsbook of choice for any line changes, and remember to play responsibly!

Computer model picks for Penn State-Ohio State

ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 25-24 win for Ohio State. That would equal a Penn State cover while the over hits.

Sportsline sees a 26-23 win for the Lions. That’s a pick for a PSU cover. And, the over.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 24-22 OSU win and it also likes the over to hit.

Finally, The Dunkel Index projects a one-point Buckeyes win. It likes the over, too.

Lions-Buckeyes picks from a national perspective

Bill Bender of The Sporting News has one of the widest margins of victory. He predicts a 27-17 Ohio State win.

“The Buckeyes were by no means dominant in Week 8, and there are concerns at offensive line against a Penn State defense that has comparable numbers to the Buckeyes across the board,” Bender writes. “Allar’s status could influence the line. Beau Pribula is an experienced backup, but the Buckeyes’ defense had 13 tackles for loss last week. This could be similar to last season, and the Nittany Lions have to shut down the best player on the field. In this case, we are talking about freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith. Will Howard and Smith connect for two TDs, and the Buckeyes make it eight in a row in this series.”

At CBS Sports, Will Backus is not picking a side or winner but does back the under.

“There’s a lot of offensive uncertainty surrounding this game, with Allar’s status up in the air and Ohio State trying to figure some things out on the fly along the offensive line,” he writes. “Even if Allar’s able to go, there’s no telling if he’ll be 100%. This has all the makings of an defensive slugfest. Ohio State and Penn State both rank top three in the Big Ten in total defense and scoring defense. Each has only allowed conference opponents to score above 20 points once this season which, unless the game skews totally towards one side, would be required to hit the over. It’s a small betting line, but it doesn’t feel like there will be a ton of points scored.”

The six-person USA Today picks crew is evenly split, with three backing the Lions and a trio on the Buckeyes. David Kenyon at Bleacher Report, meanwhile, calls for a 20-17 OSU victory on the road.

“In a clash featuring two of the nation’s best defenses, expect a low-scoring slugfest,” he writes. “Given that, any number of factors—turnovers, red-zone efficiency, etc.—could be decisive. My focus is squarely on the quarterbacks, though. Which one avoids that game-changing mistake? I’ll lean in favor of the healthier QB: Ohio State’s Will Howard.”

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-Ohio State

At PennLive, three of four pickers are taking Ohio State to win outright but three of four are backing the Nittany Lions to cover.

“My preseason prediction was that Penn State would lose to Ohio State. But going into the Wisconsin game — after the Buckeyes’ stinker against Nebraska — I was ready to flip my pick in favor of the Nittany Lions. Then, Allar got hurt, making this really difficult,” Johnny McGonigal writes in calling for a 31-28 Penn State win. “But I’ve been impressed by the resilience of this team. I think Penn State has a distinct advantage with its front four against Ohio State’s offensive line. And behind that banged up o-line with a curiously tame running game, I don’t believe Ohio State QB Will Howard can carry the Buckeyes.”

Mark Wogenrich of All Penn State calls for a 24-23 Ohio State triumph.

“The recent Penn State-Ohio State history has been defined by the Buckeyes’ great individual games: J.T. Barrett in 2017, Chase Young in 2018, Justin Fields (despite two fumbles) in 2019, JT Tuimoloau in 2022 and Marvin Harrison Jr. last year,” he writes. “Ohio State lately has had that one more player Penn State lacked. The dynamic of this year’s game is different, but Ohio State still has a few more players. Last week’s lull against Nebraska was an outlier. The Buckeyes show up Saturday with one more player (perhaps receiver Jeremiah Smith) and scheme out another win.”

Two of three Ohio State reporters at Cleveland.com are picking the Buckeyes to win. Jon Sauber of the Centre Daily Times calls for a 21-20 Penn State victory. And, Seth Engle of Statecollege.com has it PSU 27, OSU 24.

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Buckeyes

Nate Bauer: PSU: 20, OSU: 17
Sean Fitz: OSU: 22, PSU: 20
Thomas Frank Carr: PSU: 24, OSU: 21
Matt Herb: OSU: 28, PSU: 20
Greg Pickel: OSU: 20, PSU: 17
Ryan Snyder: OSU: 27, PSU: 20