Penn State-Ohio State Predictions: Can Lions upset Buckeyes for the first time since 2016?

Penn State will welcome Ohio State to a packed Beaver Stadium for the first time since 2018 Saturday. That game was a hard one for Nittany Lion fans to swallow, as Penn State blew a two-score lead with about seven minutes to play to an Ohio State squad that ranked second in the nation at the time.

Overall, the Buckeyes have been dominant over the past decade, winning nine of the last 10. The five-game winning streak they’re currently on is the longest ever between these two schools.

Can Penn State shock the college football world this week? Our staff gives their thoughts below.

Nate Bauer (Season: 7-0; Last Game: 23-19 PSU)

Penn State football did what it needed to do to get a second chance. Saturday, it gets it when No. 2 Ohio State comes to Beaver Stadium. The question is whether or not the Nittany Lions can do more with the opportunity than the first time around, that being their 41-17 trip to Michigan just two weeks ago. Flatly, the Lions’ offense showed signs of life last weekend against Minnesota, but did anything change so drastically (other than new injury concerns on the offensive line) that would signal a transformation for Penn State?

I don’t think so. 

Ohio State represents top-to-bottom excellence this season, highlighted by the quarterback position with C.J. Stroud, and I anticipate that shining through on Saturday afternoon. It doesn’t mean that Penn State can’t or won’t be competitive, though. Penn State’s offense will be the best Ohio State has faced to this point in the season, flaws and all, and should have some success that wasn’t available against the Wolverines. And, defensively, Penn State’s secondary should test that explosive Buckeye passing attack. 

I just don’t see it as being enough to get the Nittany Lions over the top in what figures to be a more compelling matchup than Michigan, particularly at Beaver Stadium.

Ohio State: 38

Penn State: 27

Thomas Frank Carr (Season: 7-0; Last Game: 24-21 PSU)

Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has transformed the Buckeyes defense with his scheme and refocused the talent on the Ohio State roster. They’re physical, fast and play the run incredibly well. On the back end they play with five defensive backs and use unique defensive structure to conceal coverages with safety rotation and diversity. It’s hard to see Penn State running the ball effectively so the game will rest on the shoulder of Sean Clifford once again. 

Offensively the Buckeyes are much better running the football than they’ve been in the last two seasons. Their offensive line plays simple and fast with loads of talent. While they struggle in some spots to pass protect, they are good enough to keep CJ Stroud clean. Stroud is inconsistent but has elite tools and makes big-time throws to make up for some of the plays he drops. 

Overall it’s hard to see a path to points but Manny Diaz’s defense is built to play against schemes like Ohio State. It just might not hold up for four quarters

Ohio State: 31

Penn State: 20

Sean Fitz (Season: 7-0; Last Game: 20-17 PSU)

Penn State has matched up with Ohio State well in past years and Saturday will be another chance to snipe the Big Ten king in Beaver Stadium. There’s no White Out and no night game atmosphere to help even the playing field, but a noon kick always leaves open the door for a slow start. The Nittany Lions will have to make sure that they’re not the ones doing it, however. Penn State has started slowly in each of the last two games and you cannot take that chance against a team that can put up points in buckets like Ohio State.

The Buckeyes are not invincible, but they’re as close as it comes in the conference. CJ Stroud is the best quarterback in the conference and it’s not particularly close. The Buckeyes could be without stud receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba on Saturday, but they can replace him and hardly miss a beat. Ohio State will wear down teams not so much by physically grinding them, but by using their superior depth to outlast opponents. While I do think Penn State can keep it close — they usually do against the Buckeyes — they’ll have to bring the best version of themselves on Saturday afternoon and maybe get a little lucky in the process.  

Ohio State: 41

Penn State: 28

Matt Herb (Season: 7-0; Last Game: 24-21 PSU)

Iowa did a pretty good job of keeping Ohio State out of the end zone for much of last week’s game in Columbus, and yet it still got its doors blown off, 54-10. Penn State has more offense than the Hawkeyes. Everyone has more offense than the Hawkeyes, but very few opponents have enough offense to match up with Ohio State for four quarters. Iowa hurt itself with six turnovers, but otherwise, I can envision this week’s game going much as that one did, with the Buckeyes steadily building a lead that becomes insurmountable at some point in the third quarter.

The one way I could see Penn State keeping this one close would be to force some Ohio State turnovers. The Lions have been good at that lately, ranking 18th in the FBS with 14 takeaways. But Ohio State hasn’t been sloppy with the football; C.J. Stroud has only thrown 4 interceptions in 190 passing attempts this season, so even that feels like a longshot.

Could PSU shock the world? Of course it could. Stranger things have happened in this rivalry … but not in a while.

Ohio State: 38

Penn State: 20

Greg Pickel (Season: 6-1; Last Game: 28-20 PSU)

Penn State has played Ohio State tough in the James Franklin era. That’s especially true at home. With history as our guide, it feels somewhat easy to say that the 15.5-point spread is too high. But, the Buckeyes bring one of the nation’s best offenses to town, and they are pretty good on defense per the usual, as well. The Lions cannot start slow in this game. Trying to outscore head coach Ryan Day’s team will be hard enough. Doing so after playing from behind will be virtually impossible. All told, Penn State will need to play a perfect game and force some costly Ohio State mistakes to win. It’ll be close for much of the game but not in the end.

Ohio State: 48

Penn State: 24

Ryan Snyder (Season: 6-1; Last Game: 23-20 PSU)

I picked Penn State to pull the upset in Ann Arbor. That did not work out well for me.

Sure, I can make the argument that Penn State is better equipped to face Ohio State than Michigan at the moment, but it’s hard for me to see the Lions pulling the upset in this one. A big reason why is Penn State’s front seven defensively.

When the Nittany Lions knocked off Ohio State in 2016, the defense forced six sacks in that game. I think most would agree that CJ Stroud is a better quarterback than J.T. Barrett. You can’t give him time to find the most talented receiver corps in the country. Yes, Penn State’s secondary is good, but they won’t be able to stick with Ohio State’s all day receivers if the front seven isn’t consistently getting after Stroud. No secondary could do that.

When you dive into Penn State’s sack numbers this year, the Nittany Lions have totaled 15 sacks as a team so far. However, seven of those came against Auburn. Over the last three weeks, they’ve managed just one sack in each game. It doesn’t help that Chop Robinson’s status is also up in the air after missing last week’s game.

Against what I believe is the best offense in the country, how that front seven gets after Stroud is what I think will prove key. If they are able to get pressure, there is a massive difference in Stroud’s QB rating. In a clean pocket, he currently has a 145.2 passer rating. When under pressure, it drops to 83.6. Compare that to Clifford who has a 102.3 rating in a clean pocket to 98.8 when facing pressure.

Offensively, Penn State will have some confidence after last week, but it’s hard for me to see this offense getting into the 30s against Ohio State, and that’s what it’ll take this week.

Ohio State: 38

Penn State: 24