Penn State-Ohio State Predictions: Can the Lions finally break through?

The biggest game of the season is almost here Penn State fans. After three weeks away from Beaver Stadium, the Nittany Lions return home Saturday for not just their biggest game of the season but one of the biggest in all of college football, with Penn State ranked No. 3 nationally and Ohio State ranked No. 4. This is the first time PSU is ranked ahead of the Buckeyes at the time of the game since 2017.

However, under James Franklin, Penn State has struggled against the Buckeyes, going 1-9 against Ohio State over the past decade. That includes seven straight losses since the Nittany Lions defeated the Buckeyes at home in October 2016.

Nate Bauer (Season Record – 7-0)

On principle alone, trying to make a pick without a full set of data is something of a fool’s errand. Will Penn State or Ohio State win on Saturday afternoon at Beaver Stadium? What will the score be?

Being realistic, if the following baseline propositions were in play at the start of the season, I know how I would have leaned. At minimum, quarterback Drew Allar, right tackle Anthony Donkoh, and defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton will be playing through something, if they’re able to play at all. Safety K.J. Winston will remain sidelined with a season-ending setback. Running back Nick Singleton missed the UCLA game and, despite his participation in games at Southern Cal and Wisconsin, still doesn’t look quite like his normal self. 

That’s a lot of firepower in doubt for this Penn State football program coming into this game. And it’s coming ahead of a game in which, presumably, the Nittany Lions would need to be the best-case version of themselves. 

Penn State is not alone in its challenges, though. Ohio State has taken a beating along its offensive line. The full extent of its ramifications are unknown right now, but certainly the predicament for the Buckeyes lends itself to vulnerability against this Nittany Lion defensive line. 

All of which points to the battle that will win or lose this game for either team. Ohio State plainly has talent at quarterback and among its offensive skill positions. Penn State plainly has a run-stuffing defense and players capable of making life uncomfortable for quarterback Will Howard. Even against a wounded Buckeye offensive line, expectations for a pile of Nittany Lion sacks would seem unlikely. But, in a matchup that could and probably will be low-scoring and tight given the quality each defense represents, the type of fourth quarter, game-changing splash play that has long been to the Buckeyes’ advantage would seem to be even, if not to the Nittany Lions’ benefit this time around.

At home, in a tight game, that’s an advantage that, regardless of injury circumstances, could prove to be the difference in getting the Nittany Lions over the hump.

Penn State: 20
Ohio State: 17

Sean Fitz (Season Record – 7-0)

Both sides have dealt with injury issues, although Ohio State’s are a little more concentrated in an area that could really change the game. The Buckeyes’ left tackle situation isn’t good, and that’s not ideal against Penn State’s defensive line. Is it enough to negate the Buckeyes’ talent at the skill positions, though? Last year, Marvin Harrison Jr. was a head taller than everyone out there and it made the difference. Is that Jeremiah Smith this year? Or maybe Emeka Egbuka, who missed the game in Columbus last year.

Beyond that, I’m more curious about the mental hurdle on the Nittany Lions’ side. Ohio State has owned pretty much every series in the Big Ten for the last decade-plus, including a 9-1 record against James Franklin. The Nittany Lions have played the Buckeyes tougher than most, but this is a game that Ohio State gets up for. It’s a lot tougher to catch a sleeping giant when it knows the challenge that will be presented.

I want to believe that Andy Kotelnicki has fixed what got Mike Yurcich canned last year. Will Penn State’s new offensive coordinator throw gas, or merely try to keep the Nittany Lions in the game until the fourth quarter? There’s an avenue for Penn State to win this game, starting with physicality up front. There are plays that need to be made by Nittany Lions on both side of the ball. Will Penn State’s big guns be up to the challenge? I just don’t know. It’s been a scattered last month when it comes to watching this team. Though they have found ways to win, they won’t be afforded the same margin of error against a Buckeyes squad that is still one of the nation’s most talented.

Ohio State: 23
Penn State: 20

Thomas Frank Carr (Season Record – 7-0)

I’ve spoken and written quite a lot this week about the issues of playing a hurt Drew Allar under center against one of the best defense lines in the country this coming weekend. But let’s be clear. If Allar is healthy enough to play, he should play. The team needs his passing ability against an equally vulnerable passing defense from Ohio State that is potentially down one of its top safeties in Latham Ransom and a struggling corner in Denzel Burke. If Allar was healthy, I’d be putting my full weight behind the idea that Penn State is the better team.

But he’s not fully healthy.

Compounding that issue is the right tackle situation, which had buoyed Allar’s performance this season by providing him with quality protection. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is no fool. He has a better handle on the problems and, more importantly, the solutions to those problems than anyone. While lacking Ransom, Ohio State’s run defense is the best Penn State has seen this year. The defensive line is good across the board, and the linebackers are excellent in run defense. No matter who is under center, running the ball on Saturday will be a tough slog. So if you can protect Allar, attack the zone coverages that Ohio State uses, and hit chunk plays to Tyler Warren or the team’s receivers, that’s the best possible plan.

Defensively, Penn State has several advantages. While it may be close to a stalemate with the Penn State offensive line, the Penn State defensive line has a clear advantage, no matter who lines up where on the left side of the Ohio State offensive line. Whether it be pass rush or run defense, the Nittany Lions have a distinct advantage in the trenches, even without Dani Dennis-Sutton.

Ohio State’s best hope on Saturday is that its athletes out-athlete the situation. The two running backs and the stable of elite athletes at wide receiver need just one play to generate a touchdown. Penn State’s coverage is better this year across the board, from corner to safety than ever. They will give up plays, but the unit as a whole is up to the task of slowing down the receivers. Most importantly, so is Zane Durant and the pass rush.

Finally, looking at these two teams, it feels reasonably evident that Penn State is the better-coached team. The issues along the Ohio State offensive line aren’t just about health; they’re systemic to the coaching and scheme, it seems. I’ve expressed my confidence in Kotelnicki to solve the problem each week.

I’m riding with that again.

Penn State: 24
Ohio State: 21

Matt Herb (Season Record – 6-1)

The Buckeyes are a little bit banged-up on their offensive line, and it showed in a closer-than-expected victory over Nebraska last weekend, a game in which TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins combined to rush for 54 yards and no touchdowns. The visiting Cornhuskers, who had given up 215 rushing yards just a week earlier against Indiana, did an impressive job of keeping an outstanding OSU backfield bottled up.

The problem for Penn State and the rest of Ohio State’s upcoming opponents is that even if you’re able to handle Henderson and Judkins, you still have to deal with Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate in the passing game. When Ohio State needed points after falling behind the Cornhuskers in the fourth quarter, it turned to the receivers, and Tate came up with a 37-yard catch on the first play of what would turn out to be the game-winning drive.

The Buckeyes’ comeback win last weekend was all too reminiscent of its recent clashes with Penn State. Ohio State has faced fourth-quarter deficits in four of its past eight games against the Nittany Lions, but when it’s needed points, it’s almost always gotten them. The lone exception was the Lions’ win in 2016 when they were able to hold Ohio State to 12 yards on its final possession after Grant Haley’s return of a blocked field goal attempt late in the fourth quarter.

One of the things that has made the Buckeyes so tough over the years is that no matter how hard opponents punch them, they keep punching back. Nebraska found that out last week, and if not for some slightly shady gamesmanship in the final seconds, Oregon might have found it out, too. It’s hard to disregard that history when thinking about how this week’s matchup of Big Ten title contenders will play out. And it doesn’t help that Penn State has its own contingent of banged-up players.

Ohio State: 28
Penn State: 20

Greg Pickel (Season Record – 7-0)

In 13 years of doing this, I can’t recall a game that was harder to pick than this one. Not just any injury questions, but major ones involving players at game-changing positions, are facing both teams. Each has areas of concern that have totally been overcome in Penn State’s case and mostly in Ohio State’s up until this point. Which side will execute most effectively and make the fewest mistakes on Saturday? The answer to that very obvious but impossibly difficult question to answer will lead you to the winner. James Franklin is 1-9 against the Buckeyes and his Lions have lost in blowout fashion, when leading late, and when within striking distance of tying or going ahead in the game’s final minutes. History tells us that Ryan Day’s side will get the better of Franklin’s again.

Recent play suggests this Penn State team is in prime position to finally take down the Buckeyes for just the second time in 11 years. But, the injury questions linger. It’s fair to say that the Lions have their best coordinator tandem of the James Franklin era when it comes to having confidence in their adjustment-making ability to find, and stop, enough points to win. It’s also fair to say the Buckeyes have Jeremiah Smith, and Emeka Egbuka, and J.T. Tuimoloau, and Caleb Downs, and other players who are among the best in the game. The list goes on and on and while it’s close, the Buckeyes bring just a little bit more overall talent to town. That will ultimately be the difference.

Before this matchup a year ago, I wrote in predicting OSU to win that “A Penn State victory wouldn’t shock me, but I want to see it before I believe it.” I still find myself with that same mindset this year.

Ohio State: 20
Penn State: 17

Ryan Snyder (Season Record – 7-0)

I’ll get right to the point with this one. I’ve picked Penn State to win this game the past few years and well, you know how it went for the Nittany Lions. I left Ohio Stadium last year telling colleagues that I can’t pick Penn State to win this game until they finally prove it. I do truly believe that this year sets up well for them to get across the line, but I’ve been telling friends and family all week that I have to see it before I pick it at this point. I’m holding firm there.

Ohio State: 27
Penn State: 20