Penn State-Ohio State predictions: How college football experts, computer data systems are picking Lions-Buckeyes

Penn State is set for another matchup with Ohio State. It is the latest top-15 matchup between the two sides. The Lions are No. 13 in the Associated Press top 25. The Buckeyes are No. 2. And, head coach Ryan Day’s team is also a massive 15.5-point road favorite ahead of a Noon ET kickoff on FOX from Beaver Stadium.

“We’re talking about another scheme with talented coaches, but also really, really talented players. And there were some guys at Purdue we were concerned about,” Lions head coach James Franklin said Wednesday. “I think everybody would agree there are probably more guys at Ohio State that people are aware of and concerned about before coming into this game. 

“I think that’s the challenge, right? When you got somebody on the right side of the field that’s a problem, and somebody’s on the left side of the field that’s a problem, and somebody that’s in the slot that’s a problem, and then somebody in the backfield that’s a problem, it makes it difficult because it’s not like you can say ‘Okay, we’re going to take away the slot, or we’re going to take away the tight end, or we’re going to load the box because we like the match up outside with the receivers.’ That’s when people are really difficult to defend when they got multiple guys in multiple spots that are proven and can hurt you.”

Here’s how national and local experts, as well as computer data systems, are picking the Lions-Buckeyes matchup.

Computer model picks for Penn State-Ohio State

At ESPN, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts an OSU win but PSU cover. It has it Ohio State 33, Penn State 22.

Sportsline has a similar projection. It currently shows a 34-23 Buckeyes victory.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock sees it 41-25 in favor of Ohio State. That would not equal a Penn State cover.

Finally, The Dunkle Index has Ohio State winning by 22, and also predicts the game will go over the 61.5-point total with 66 points being scored.

Lions-Buckeyes predictions from a national perspective

At Sporting News, Bill Bender calls for a 41-19 Ohio State triumph.

“Last year’s matchup didn’t morph into a blowout because the Nittany Lions forced Ohio State to settle for field goals in the red zone,” Bender writes. “It’s still points, and Ohio State remains the only team in the FBS that has scored on all 36 red-zone trips (31 TDs, five field goals). Penn State is sixth in the FBS with a 96 percent scoring rate in the red zone, with 20 TDs and four field goals in 25 trips.

“That suggests the Nittany Lions could hang around here, but that running game has to be over its head for that to happen. [CJ] Stroud and the Buckeyes will be sharper in the red zone this week, and Miyan Williams will re-emerge with a pair of TDs. Ohio State will make its case to be No. 1 in the first College Football Playoff rankings, which will be released Tuesday. 

James Parker of Sports Illustrated projects a 41-27 OSU victory over Penn State.

“Penn State has the speed to hold contain on the back end for a while, it still lacks a developed pass rush to truly give constant push against Stroud and throw his timing off,” Parker writes.

“Sean Clifford has the arm and the targets to throw Ohio State’s mid-range defense the wrong way a few times early in the game, but ultimately he doesn’t have the firepower to match with the Buckeyes’ output.”

Stewart Mandel of The Athletic picks a Penn State cover but an Ohio State win by a 35-24 count. College Football News calls for a 40-23 Buckeyes victory. And, Jerry Palm of CBS Sports does not have a score prediction but believes the game will go under the 61.5-point total.

Beat writers pick Penn State-Ohio State

At The Athletic, Penn State writer Audrey Snyder calls for a 41-20 Ohio State win while Buckeyes counterpart Teague Robinson sees it 45-24 in favor of OSU.

The staff at the Columbus Dispatch see an Ohio State win and cover across the board. Frank Bodani of the York Daily Record envisions a 31-20 Buckeyes triumph. The staff at PennLive has a clean sweep for Ohio State, as well, but three of five panelists envision a Penn State cover. Doug Lesmerises of Cleveland.com does not, however. He calls it 41-24 in favor of Saturday’s visitors.

“Figure this goes as it often does for the Buckeyes against good teams with quality defenses — it’s a game until the OSU passing game eventually breaks out,” Lesmerises writes.

Finally, the staff at the Daily Collegian all see an Ohio State win but Penn State cover.

How the BWI staff picked the Lions-Buckeyes matchup

Nate Bauer: Ohio State 38, Penn State 17
Thomas Frank Carr: OSU 31, PSU 20
Sean Fitz: Ohio State 41, Penn State 28
Matt Herb: OSU 38, PSU 20
Greg Pickel: Ohio State 48, Penn State 24
Ryan Snyder: OSU 38, PSU 24