Penn State-Oregon Matchups: Who will have the edge in Indianapolis?

By Greg Pickel

A battle between a longtime Big Ten team and a newcomer makes up this year’s conference title game. No. 3 Penn State, the owner of four league crowns, chases its fifth and first in the 18-team era. No. 1 Oregon, of course, aims to win its first in its inaugural season in the Big Ten. Kickoff is set for 8:17 p.m. ET. CBS is televising the contest.

“On the full offense, they have a veteran quarterback, and he’s done a great job of leading the offense, and have a tight end that everyone knows around the country. Stoked for this opportunity,” Oregon linebacker Jeffrey Bassa said.

Penn State receiver Liam Clifford was equally complimentary of the Ducks.

“Nothing but respect for Oregon so far,” he said. “Watched some film on them this morning. A super fast and athletic team. Excited for the challenge. I think we match up well. And I know our team is super excited for the challenge.”

Who will have the edge on Saturday? Let’s dive into the matchups below.

When Penn State is on offense

A big question this week is this: Will the defenses own this game? Both offenses are in the top 30 (PSU No. 13 and Oregon No. 19) in scoring offense. That’s fine and well, and one of the reasons each is here, of course. But, at least on paper, both defenses reign supreme. We’ll cover the Lions’ below. First, though, let’s dive into the Ducks’ defense. Led by coordinator Tosh Lupoi, Oregon enters the game at No. 7 in total defense (283.8 yards allowed per game), No. 9 in scoring defense (16.2 points against per game), and is better against the pass (No. 8) compared to the run (No. 22). Tysheem Johnson is a ball-hawking safety with three interceptions. Burlsworth Trophy candidate and linebacker Bryce Boettcher is the heart and soul of the unit and leads it with 80 tackles (seven for loss) and two sacks.

This defense, which is of the 4-2-5 variety, can rush the passer. Defensive end Matayo Uiagalelei has 10.5 sacks on the year and Jordan Burch, who lines up on the other side, owns 8.5 through eight games. Linebacker Teitum Tuioti has 5.5, as well, and the team’s season total of 39 is sixth in the country and first in the Big Ten. However, it should be noted that the numbers are a bit inflated after a 10-sack performance last weekend against Washington.

Penn State will miss Anthony Donkoh at right tackle this week, even if Nolan Rucci was better a week ago compared to two weeks ago. The Lions will be challenged across the board up front. It’s not good news for a rushing attack that has too often failed to get going consistently this season. And, in the pass game, Andy Kotelnicki is probably going to need to roll with two tight ends and keep one in to help chip, at the very least, more than he would prefer to.

More: What did we learn from Penn State, Oregon players before the Big Ten title game?

A battle of strengths will take place on third down. Penn State is No. 14 in success on third down and Oregon is No. 15 at stopping opponents when the sticks get to that point of a drive. This unit also gives up very few explosive plays. If you can knock it anywhere, it’s in the turnover department. The team’s 16 gained (six fumbles, 10 interceptions) is just 67th nationally.

All told, Penn State will need to put together sustained drives to win this game. We can’t shake the Ohio State game, though, when thinking about who has the edge here. Perhaps it will be better in the red zone against the nation’s No. 72 defense once opponents get inside its 20-yard line. But we’ll need to see the offensive line hold up, better touchdown production, and someone besides Tyler Warren making plays in the passing game before we believe that the Lions will muster enough points to win this game.

EDGE: Oregon

When the Nittany Lions are on defense

You’ve probably heard a lot so far this week that the Ducks are a juggernaut on offense. It’s certainly true to an extent. But, it also feels a bit like their past success is bleeding a little bit into how they’re being viewed before this game. It’s true that Dan Lanning’s attack ranks third in the Big Ten in scoring offense (35.2), first in total offense (448.5), second in pass offense (277.6) and fifth in rushing offense (170.9). It is productive and efficient with Dillon Gabriel, who has thrown for a Big Ten leading 3,275 yards and completed 73.5 percent of his passes. He owns a 24-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Running back Jordan James has 1,166 yards and 13 touchdowns, though it might surprise you to know that Nick Singleton beats him in average yards per rush 6.1 to 5.7. Receiver Tez Johnson is back healthy and owns a team-high 67 catches for 685 yards and nine scores. The Penn State secondary will be tested by an attack with four receivers with at least 30 receptions and six with at least 20.

The key for Penn State will be to get Oregon off schedule early. It, like most teams, struggles when it is routinely in 2nd and long and then 3rd and long-to-medium range. It must contain Gabriel as a runner, as he doesn’t do it often but can be effective when he does. The Lions might also get to go after a backup at guard if Marcus Harper is out again.

This will be the best offense Penn State has seen this season. Stopping it will not be easy. But, after watching Tom Allen’s group in action all year, it’s fair to suggest that, while it won’t shut the Ducks off, it will perform well enough to put the offense in position to win the game, at the very least.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–Maybe more than any other game, the third quarter might be the most important. Penn State is No. 2 in third quarter scoring defense and Oregon No. 6 at 1.3 and 2.4 points per third quarter against, respectively. But while the Penn State offense is 24th in third quarter scoring offense with 8.1 points per third quarter, the Ducks rank No. 105 with just four.

–Ducks kicker Atticus Sappington is 13 of 15 on the year when it comes to field goal tries. He has just one 50-plus yard attempt over three seasons and missed it.

–Oregon punter Ross James’ 46.8 yards per punt ranks 10th nationally. Punt returner Tez Johnson’s average of 11.92 yards per punt return is 15th, and he also has a punt return for a touchdown this year.

–Kick returner Noah Whittington is averaging 31.0 yards per kick return over seven this season.

Final word

Penn State is capable of winning this game. Oregon, however, is a reasonable 3.5-point favorite. Our predictions will be out on Thursday. There is certainly a path to a Nittany Lions triumph. And both teams’ defenses should shine. Ultimately, then, as is always the case in a “big” game for Penn State, it will come down to whether or not the offense can do enough to win. The Lions a Big Ten best 6.80 yards per play. Oregon is No. 12 with just 4.67 yards allowed per play. On offense, the Ducks average 6.61 and PSU allows 4.49. Pick which side gets closer to its averages on each side of the ball, and you’ll have your winner.