Penn State-Oregon Predictions: Can the Lions claim a Big Ten title?

How quickly things have changed for Penn State over the past week. This time last week, Nittany Lion fans were already beginning to plan for a first-round playoff game at Beaver Stadium in about three weeks. Now, head coach James Franklin and his team have the opportunity to skip that altogether with a win in the Big Ten Championship game Saturday night in Indianapolis.

Following Ohio State’s loss to Michigan, Penn State has the opportunity to get that marquee win that’s eluded them in recent years. It would also represent arguably the biggest win in Franklin’s tenure, as the Nittany Lions get the opportunity to take down No. 1 Oregon.

These two teams haven’t faced each other since the 1995 Rose Bowl, but the Lions do hold a 3-1 record against the Ducks all-time. However, as you would expect for the No. 1 team in the country, Oregon does come into this game as a 3.5-point favorite.

So, how will Saturday’s Big Ten Championship play out? Our staff offers up their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season Record – 11-1)

For Penn State this weekend, there are more than a few factors working against its success against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship. The most important, in my mind, is the impact of Anthony Donkoh’s first quarter injury at Minnesota.

Against a Ducks defense that is one of the nation’s best at racking up sacks – no doubt in part due to advantageous game circumstances forcing opponents into more obvious passing situations – the notion of the Nittany Lions playing without one of their best offensive linemen is less than ideal. The fact that Nolan Rucci played his best game in the program last week against Maryland serves as something of a momentum springboard, though.

I’m picking Penn State to win anyway.

Why? Because this is a team that has been tested so many times, in so many ways, that its scar tissue is likely to come into play in an influential way on Saturday night. A quality not limited to James Franklin, who has needed to contend with the specter of Ohio State for so long that it has taken on a life of its own, quarterback Drew Allar is in a similar, shallower boat.

In that vein, should defensive coordinator Tom Allen and his unit find a way to slow down this Oregon attack, the collective experiences of 2024 have an opportunity to serve Penn State. Needing to have the chance to be in a high-stress, late-game situation in the first place, it’s a quality this team has earned its confidence to pull off.

Penn State: 24
Oregon: 23

Sean Fitz (Season Record – 12-0)

The last time Penn State went to Indy for the Big Ten title game it was a magical night. Penn State’s comeback against Wisconsin was indicative of the team that the Nittany Lions put on that field back in 2016. This edition has won games in all sorts of ways this year. That could come in handy against the No. 1 team in the nation.

While Oregon has its reputation as an offensive juggernaut, this Ducks team is built a little differently. The offensive line is very good and quarterback Dillon Gabriel can facilitate. The defense, however, is well-rounded and may actually be the better unit. They’re going to give Penn State’s offensive line, which will certainly miss right tackle Anthony Donkoh this postseason, all it can handle. How do the Nittany Lions scheme around that while still getting Tyler Warren and Nick Singleton involved?

Penn State’s path to a win and a conference title could be more methodical. If the Nittany Lions are able to keep the Ducks’ defense on the field and finish possessions, they can pull the upset. It almost goes without saying that on the other side, the Nittany Lions’ defense must keep Oregon in front of them. That said, the Ducks are No. 1 for a reason and seem healthier, so it’s a tough forecast at this point.

Oregon: 31
Penn State: 24

Thomas Frank Carr (Season Record – 11-1)

It should come as no shock that the Oregon Ducks, the top-ranked team in the country, are the most complete team Penn State has faced this season. They’re stout up front on both sides of the ball and orbit elite speed players around that powerful, explosive core along the line of scrimmage. Dan Lanning’s emphasis on complete football at Oregon, blending concepts and styles, has created a truly unique offense and defense.

However, bringing in a player like Dillon Gabriel, a sixth-year college football quarterback, has its challenges. Unlike Bo Nix, his predecessor, he’s not an NFL-caliber player from a mental or physical perspective.

But he is good enough to win a championship with the assembled talent. However, he’s the key to a Penn State victory. When the Ducks struggle, it’s because he’s struggling to see open receivers, throwing risky or inaccurate passes, and not playing within himself. If the Penn State defense can harass him throughout the game and stop the run, they can put Oregon in unfavorable situations that Gabriel has coughed up the ball in at times this year.

Offensively, running the ball against Oregon’s defensive front will be a slog. The line has the body types to seamlessly shift between even and odd fronts and does so often. While they don’t have an elite speed rusher, they get home with overwhelming size and power. Penn State should be able to hold up enough against that rush to give Allar a chance. However, it comes down to execution and playing the cleanest game we’ve seen from this group this season.

Penn State shouldn’t get blown out. But it is hard to find a path to enough points unless Allar plays at a level we haven’t seen from him, combining his smart decision-making with daring aggression downfield. He won’t have many chances, so he’s got to nail them when he gets them.

Oregon: 24
Penn State: 17

Matt Herb (Season Record – 11-1)

Oregon has faced two top-15 defenses this year in Ohio State (No. 1, 241.1 yards per game) and Michigan (No. 15, 310.9). Against the Wolverines, it totaled 470 yards and averaged 6.6 yards per play. Against the Buckeyes, it totaled 496 yards and averaged 7.6 per play. Suffice to say, the Ducks are going to get their yards on Saturday night.

The question for Penn State is whether it can keep pace. Earlier this year, USC bolted out to a 20-6 lead, but PSU’s defense tightened up after a rough first half, and the offense eventually found its rhythm. Can the Lions replicate that feat if necessary? It won’t be easy. The Ducks aren’t going to let Tyler Warren catch 17 passes the way the Trojans did, so PSU will need its other receiving targets to step up. That didn’t happen in its previous matchup against a top-five opponent. The defense did a nice job containing Ohio State’s elite skill position talent, but the Lions couldn’t generate enough offense to engineer a comeback.

Considering that Dillon Gabriel has been playing at a Heisman-worthy level for much of this season, it’s going to be very hard for Penn State to earn its first Big Ten championship since 2016.

Oregon: 31
Penn State: 17

Greg Pickel (Season Record – 12-0)

Back on Saturday, when Penn State first learned that it would make this matchup opposite the Ducks, I had no thought in the world about picking the Lions to win. But, after diving deeper into the matchup, there is absolutely a path to victory for James Franklin’s team. In fact, this may end up turning into the kind of low-scoring, tightly-contested, ball-control game the Lions have won many a time this season. Oregon is faster in the plays per second metric than Penn State, but both are in the bottom third of the country at 26.9 seconds and 28.1, respectively. Neither has tremendous turnover gained or lost metrics — each offense mostly takes care of the football and each defense can be opportunistic but generally isn’t. It’s actually fascinating how close many of the two sides’ metrics are. Many think the matchup will be the most competitive one of conference championship weekend, and it’s not hard to see why when you look at the numbers and watch the film.

So, where do I fall here? After much debate, it is with the Ducks. They have an edge at receiver. But, no Tyler Warren, of course. It’s easy to question how Nolan Rucci will play in this game, and I worry about his ability to hold up for 60 minutes against this pass rush. Oregon also has a preparation advantage since it’s been gearing up for this game longer and had a late November bye. And, last but not least, it’s not by a wide margin, but the nation’s No. 1 team has a talent advantage on paper.

It will be a shock if this game is a blowout. In fact, both teams should have every chance to win it in the fourth quarter. When push comes to shove, the Ducks’ little edges add up to a close triumph.

Oregon: 23
Penn State: 20

Ryan Snyder (Season Record – 12-0)

I can’t help but wonder how much more prepared Oregon may be coming into this game. The Ducks have known since Nov. 19 that they were playing in this game. They also had a bye week Nov. 23 to do some early scouting. Sure, many expected Ohio State to be in this game, but Oregon has the support staff that would’ve allowed them to do early scouting on the Nittany Lions as well.

Maybe Penn State’s support staff was able to do some of that as well, but when you add in the bye week for Oregon’s players, especially this late in the season, I think that’s an edge that might go overlooked a bit this week.

But also, Oregon just doesn’t have many weaknesses. I think Penn State’s defense will do a better job against Oregon’s offense compared to Ohio State earlier this year, but can Penn State’s offense be as productive against the Ducks as it has against weaker opponents? The fact that they didn’t score at all against Ohio State has me believing that may be an issue.

They’ll look better than they did against the Buckeyes, but I think the Ducks take home the trophy.

Oregon: 24
Penn State: 14