Penn State-Oregon predictions: How computer data systems, college football experts, see the game

INDIANAPOLIS — No. 3 Penn State and No. 1 Oregon meet tonight at Lucas Oil Stadium for the Big Ten title. The 12-0 Ducks are a 3.5-point favorite and the over/under betting total is 50.5. points. Kickoff is set for 8:17 p.m. ET on CBS. This is only the second time this year that the Nittany Lions are an underdog, with the first coming when they hosted Ohio State back in November. PSU is 6-24 straight up as an underdog since October of 2014, according to Odd Shark, but is a respectable 14-16 against the number.

Our weekly picks roundup gives you one final, comprehensive look at what data systems and experts believe before kickoff. And, as always, be sure to check your sportsbook of choice for any line changes, and remember to play responsibly!

Computer model picks for Penn State-Oregon

ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 27-24 Oregon victory. That’s a cover for the Lions and a pick for the over.

Sportsline sees a 26-25 Nittany Lions triumph. That’s a pick for the over, as well.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 29-25 Oregon win. That’s a prediction for the Ducks to win and cover while the over cashes.

Finally, The Dunkel Index projects a 1-point Oregon win. It likes the under, as it calls for 45 total points in the contest.

Lions-Ducks picks from a national perspective

Bill Bender of The Sporting News calls for the under to hit as the Ducks win 30-20.

“The Ducks have a chance to win the Big Ten in their first season against Penn State, which won its last Big Ten championship in 2016,” he writes. “This is a battle of two top-10 scoring defenses. The Nittany Lions allow 14 points per game, and Oregon is at 16.2 points per game. Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel led the Big Ten with 3,275 passing yards, 24 TDs and just six interceptions. How will Penn State’s front seven – led by Abdul Carter – alter that? Penn State quarterback Drew Allar has a 74.2% completion with six TDs and no interceptions in his last four games. The Nittany Lions are 0-5 S/U and 1-4 ATS as an underdog since 2022. Does James Franklin change the narrative here? “

At Bleacher Report, David Kenyon has it 23-16 in favor of Oregon. That’s a call for the under.

“”Perhaps lost in the mayhem of several SEC upsets is that Penn State clipped Minnesota by a point,” Kenyon writes. “Because of that victory, though, the Nittany Lions are basically locked into the CFP picture, too. There won’t be any doubt if Penn State topples a reeling Maryland team.”

“Penn State’s defense is awesome,” he writes. “But the narratives exist for a reason. James Franklin holds a 1-13 record opposite top-five competition while at PSU, and Drew Allar has consistently been quiet in marquee games. No, that doesn’t mean Penn State cannot win. This defense is good enough to carry the team! I’m also unwilling to pick against these two clearly defined trends until Penn State proves it.”

At The Action Network, Collin Wilson predicts Penn State to win.

“With advantages in run concepts and defending the slot, Penn State should be able to capture its second Big Ten Championship since the creation of the title game in Indianapolis,” he writes. “Look for Warren to capitalize against an Oregon defense that failed to create contested catches against an elite tight end from Michigan.”

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-Oregon

At PennLive, its four-man coverage team is unanimous in picking Oregon to win and cover.

“I see this as a toss-up, and ESPN thinks so, too,” Johnny McGonigal writes. “ESPN’s advanced metrics give Penn State a 51% chance to win. But postgame, I think we’ll be talking about the difference in talent at wide receiver. In a tight game when one big play could win the game, I’d take Oregon’s trio of wideouts over Penn State’s.”

At The Athletic, Audrey Snyder picks Oregon 27-20 while Scott Dochterman picks Penn State to win 27-23.

“The matchups that matter are whether Penn State’s receivers can establish some separation and whether Oregon’s offensive line can protect Gabriel in critical situations,” Dochterman writes. “I think a Penn State receiver has a big play in him and Carter forces a game-altering turnover in the fourth quarter.”

Frank Bodani picks it 27-20 in favor of the Ducks.

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Ducks

Nate Bauer: PSU: 24, Oregon: 23
Sean Fitz: Oregon: 31, PSU: 24
Thomas Frank Carr: Oregon: 24, PSU: 17
Matt Herb: Oregon: 31, PSU: 17
Greg Pickel: Oregon: 23, PSU: 20
Ryan Snyder: Oregon: 27, PSU: 14