Penn State postseason projections: Where do the Lions stand in the CFP mix before Illinois?
Penn State is one of nine teams still favored to make the College Football Playoff at FanDuel. Twelve teams will make the annual postseason tournament for the first time this season, of course. But, the Nittany Lions are currently lined among a select group of teams with better than a 1-to-1 shot of making the Playoff. So, entering its Big Ten opener opposite Illinois on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET, that much is clear. The main question for pundits, then, is whether or not head coach James Franklin’s team will host a first-round Playoff game. To help answer that question as September winds to a close, we’ve rounded up the latest media predictions below.
Penn State postseason projections before Week 5
A few ESPN analysts have new predictions for the 12-team field. Heather Dinich currently has the Lions at No. 9, which would send them to No. 8 Alabama in the first round.
“Penn State’s two most difficult remaining games are Oct. 12 at USC and on Nov. 2 against Ohio State,” Dinich writes. “ESPN Analytics gives the Nittany Lions less than a 50% chance to win each of those games. Though it would be easy to assume a two-loss PSU team finishes in the committee’s top 12, that might not be the case. If PSU loses both of those games, it might not have any wins against ranked opponents — and that would be costly when entering a debate with another contender that does. Considering how well Illinois has been playing, Penn State has to avoid that trap first or it could really be in trouble.”
More: PSU-Illinois matchups: Who will have the edge Saturday at Beaver Stadium?
Two of Dinich’s ESPN colleagues also have the Lions going on the road in Round 1. Mark Schlabach has them at No. 9, as well, with No. 8 Ole Miss as the team’s opponent. Kyle Bonagura, then, has PSU at No. 10 and traveling to No. 7 Tennessee on either Dec. 20 or Dec. 21.
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- 1
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At CBS Sports, longtime bracket expert Jerry Palm send Penn State to No. 8 Iowa State as the No. 9 seed. For The Athletic, Austin Mock’s data-driven model has the Lions as the No. 8 seed hosting Ole Miss. His colleague Stewart Mandel sees it differently: He has PSU as the No. 11 seed and opening the CFP at No. 6 Tennessee. The USA Today duo of Paul Myerberg and Erick Smith have head coach James Franklin’s team as the No. 10 seed and going to No. 7 Oregon in the opening round.
Last but not least, at On3, Ari Wasserman has No. 11 Penn State at No. 6 Georgia with the winner facing No. 3 Miami in the Peach Bowl. And, Andy Staples has the Lions at No. 10, setting up a trip to No. 7 Tennessee for the right to play No. 2 Texas in the Sugar Bowl. Brett McMurphy of The Action Network has the same projection.
