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Penn State projected point spreads: How many times will the Lions be a double-digit favorite in 2025?

Greg Pickelby:Greg Pickel•06/04/25•

GregPickel

penn-state-football-james-franklin-andy-kotelnicki
James Franklin and Andy Kotelnicki. (Pickel/BWI)

Penn State football is a preseason top-five team and will tower over many of its opponents in 2025, leading to many massive point spreads. Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings following spring practice have the Nittany Lions as the No. 3 team in the country. Overall, the metrics say that head coach James Franklin’s program has the No. 29 strength of schedule. But, it will be a double-digit favorite more often than it is not, in all likelihood, this fall.

DraftKings already makes PSU a 43.5-point favorite over Week 1 foe Nevada. The Wolfpack are ranked No. 124 out of 136 teams in the SP+ rankings. Those suggest that the Lions should be a 44-point favorite, which means the initial number is right in line with Connelly’s projects. We can use his numbers to project the rest of the team’s fall point spreads, save for Villanova, which is an FCS school. It goes without saying that, if the game is even lined by oddsmakers, that PSU will be 50-plus point favorite. The site also puts PSU as a four-point favorite opposite Oregon and a 4.5-point underdog against Ohio State.

Here is a look at each projected point spread using SP+ rankings as a guide. We do add three points for home-field advantage (the White Out likely gets more from oddsmakers, however). And, we’re rounding up or down instead of using decimals.

Week 1: Nevada at Penn State (-47)

Week 2: FIU at PSU (-48)

Wk. 3: Villanova at Penn State (-50+)

Week 4: BYE

Week 5: Oregon at PSU (-6)

Wk. 6: Penn State (-22) at UCLA

Week 7: Northwestern at PSU (-37)

Week 8: Penn State (-13) at Iowa

W. 9: BYE

Week 10: PSU at Ohio State (-5)

Week 11: Indiana at Penn State (-18)

Wk. 12: Penn State (-25) at Michigan State

Week 13: Nebraska at PSU (-22)

Week 14: Penn State (-20) at Rutgers

Penn State post-spring point spread projections observations

It goes without saying that these numbers will never perfectly match the actual betting market realities come game week. Some spreads will end up shorter than they are here. And, others will be larger.

To answer the question posed in the headline, SP+ currently projects the Lions to be a double-digit favorite in 10 of 12 games this fall, which seems about right for a top-five team that is guaranteed three walkovers in the non-conference slate.

As for some observations, our gut tells us that the Oregon line is volatile based on how the Ducks look with a lot of new faces in addition to how oddsmakers perceive Penn State coming off what should be an easy 3-0 start and a bye. That number could swell. As for one that could fall, Franklin’s team laying two touchdowns at Iowa may end up being a tad bit high.

What are your thoughts on the 2025 Penn State possible point spreads? Share them on The Lions Den message board now!

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