Penn State-Purdue predictions: How computer data systems, college football experts, see the game

West Lafayette, Ind.– No. 4 Penn State is a massive favorite ahead of today’s 3:30 p.m. ET matchup with Purdue on CBS. The point spread sits at 28.5 points, while the over/under betting total is 51. According to OddsShark, this is the first time the Lions are favored on the road by four touchdowns or more since 2018, when they did not cover in a 20-7 win at Rutgers.

Our weekly picks roundup gives you one final, comprehensive look at what data systems and experts believe before kickoff. And, as always, be sure to check your sportsbook of choice for any line changes, and remember to play responsibly!

Computer model picks for Penn State-Purdue

ESPN Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 42-8 win for the Lions. That would equal a Penn State cover while the under barely squeaks in.

Sportsline sees a 39-11 win for the Lions. That’s a pick for a push or loss, depending on the line you fine, on the point spread for PSU but a win regardless and another close call on the total.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 38-8 PSU win. That’s another pick for a Lions cover and the first clear under pick from the computers.

Finally, The Dunkel Index projects a 36-point Lions win. It likes the over, as it calls for 56 total points in the contest.

Lions-Boilermakers picks from a national perspective

Bill Bender of The Sporting News has Penn State covering easily and also likes the under. He calls for a 42-7 triumph for the Lions on the road.

“This is part of a brutal schedule for Purdue, who has already been shut out 35-0 by Oregon and 45-0 by Ohio State,” Bender writes. “Penn State is in the beauty contest portion of the schedule, and the defense allows just 14 points per game. Penn State has scored more than 35 points in just one game this season – and that was against Kent State. Look for the Nittany Lions to put a late TD on the board and get the cover and take advantage of a Boilermakers team that averages 9.2 points per game at home against FBS teams.”

For Bleacher Report, David Kenyon calls for a 41-7 Lions win. That’s another pick for a PSU cover while also backing the under.

“To date, Purdue’s combined score against Top 10 opponents—Notre Dame, Oregon and Ohio State—is 146-7,” Kenyon writes. “Oof.”

Colin Wilson of The Action Network, meanwhile, made Penn State to cover the spread one of his early bets of the week.

“While the Nittany Lions sit top-10 in Rushing Success Rate and Passing Success Rate, the Boilermakers come in at 85th and 129th in those categories defensively,” he writes. “To make matters worse, a similar story ensues on the other side of the ball.

“Expect Penn State head coach James Franklin to take advantage of Purdue’s miserable 2024 campaign to prop up the Nittany Lions’ standing with the committee.”

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-Purdue

The four-man picks crew at PennLive all call for a PSU win and cover. However, only one of them has the Lions eclipsing the 40-point mark on the road.

“I don’t think this will be close,” Bob Flounders writes in calling for a 35-3 Penn State win. “And I have a very specific prediction. Penn State will be pitching a defensive shutout … until Purdue coach Ryan Walters decides to kick a sad field goal down multiple scores in the fourth quarter.”

For Sports Illustrated, Mark Wogenrich has it 38-0 in favor of the visitors.

“Purdue serves as the top of the Big Ten’s unwitting benchmark game this season,” Wogenrich writes. “Penn State doesn’t necessarily have to throw shutouts like Oregon and Ohio State but probably does need to produce a score that makes the CFP committee shrug, say, “That wasn’t close” and move on. However, this game appears primed for a Penn State defensive shutout, even if most of the starters sit the fourth quarter.”

Frank Bodani picks it 48-10 in favor of the Lions for the York Daily Record.

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Boilermakers

Nate Bauer: PSU: 41, Purdue: 9
Sean Fitz: PSU: 45, Purdue: 6
Thomas Frank Carr: PSU: 49, Purdue: 0
Matt Herb: PSU: 38, Purdue: 10
Greg Pickel: PSU: 49, Purdue: 3
Ryan Snyder: PSU: 42, Purdue: 7