Penn State-Purdue Predictions: Lions heavily favored vs. Boilermakers

Penn State head coach James Franklin and his staff have to be happy with the way their team responded after the loss to Ohio State. Not only did the offense put together its best start to the season, but the defense continued to do what they’ve done all season, limiting Washington to just two field goals in a 35-6 win.

The Nittany Lions still have one more home game remaining at the end of the month against November, but at 8-1, they have two road trips up next, beginning with a game against 1-8 Purdue in West Lafayette, Ind., this Saturday.

Purdue has struggled on both sides of the ball. Offensively, the Boilermakers are ranked No. 120 in total offense, averaging just 320.4 yards per game, and No. 127 in scoring offense (18.0 PPG). They’ve been no better on the other side of the ball, coming in at No. 121 in total defense (446.4 yards per game) and No. 128 in scoring defense, allowing 37.78 points per game.

All-time, Penn State holds a big edge in this series, holding a 16-3-1 record against Purdue. Since joining the Big Ten, the Lions are 16-2, with their last loss coming in 2004.

So, how will Saturday’s game play out? Our staff offers up their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season Record – 8-1)

Purdue has a few things going against it this week on top of its already very bad season. The first and most damaging is that the Boilermakers, outside of the Indiana State and overtime against Illinois, have struggled to do anything resembling productivity offensively this season. Against a Penn State defense that has had an inverse effect on its opponents this season, that spells trouble for the hosts. Even under the worst circumstances for the Nittany Lions’ offense, which has been inconsistent this season but is coming off one of its best performances in the first half against Washington, three touchdowns would seem to be a prerequisite for any opportunity at winning.

The second issue for Purdue is that the defense also hasn’t had much success stopping anyone. At 37.8 points per game allowed, the Boilermakers are No. 128 nationally in scoring defense and are vulnerable both through the air and on the ground. Irrespective of the fluidity of Penn State’s offense this week, the Nittany Lions’ shouldn’t have to especially worry about sacks (62nd) or tackles for loss (94th) against this group. Afforded the opportunity to put itself in advantageous down and distances repetitively is Penn State’s bread and butter, and Purdue represents the type of defense that won’t get in the way of that objective.

Penn State: 41
Purdue: 9

Sean Fitz (Season Record – 9-0)

Penn State’s goal is clear. The Nittany Lions have a path ahead of them in the next three weeks that lacks the chaos potential of many other teams currently slotted among the College Football Playoff rankings. So the goal remains the same — just win the game. The trip to West Lafayette will present its own set of challenges, but they won’t necessarily all come from the Boilermakers. Head coach Ryan Walters seems in over his head in his second season, and there don’t seem to be many signs pointing to a way out. 

The schedule makers in the Big Ten have not been kind to the Boilermakers. So far this season, the slate has included trips to Columbus, Madison and Champaign, in addition to hosting Oregon and Penn State. Rivalry games against Notre Dame (a 66-7 loss) and Indiana have not softened the blow. Purdue may not make a change after this season, but the program doesn’t have much going for it at this point.

Penn State will have advantages on both sides of the ball this weekend, and while style points don’t matter as much as the win/loss total, the Nittany Lions could use another impressive win like last weekend. How much can this Penn State offense build off of the steps forward against Washington? The Nittany Lions should have room to make some plays on Saturday and take care of business.

Penn State: 45
Purdue: 6

Thomas Frank Carr (Season Record – 8-1)

As Penn State head coach James Franklin mentioned on Monday, Purdue plays a defensive style similar to Illinois. The problem is that they don’t have the talent level of even the Illini.

But let’s explain that style for a second. Purdue wants to play hyper-aggressive press man coverage and stack the line with big bodies to stop the run. They’ll deploy odd fronts, five-man fronts, and some heavy even fronts with single coverage over the top.

What that means is that Penn State can pick its favorite way to shred Purude. Want to get the passing game going this week? The Nittany Lion’s wide receivers should run away from the Purdue defensive backs. The run game should easily find creases up front and then exploit a minimal secondary once they penetrate the defensive line.

Defensively, Penn State should have a similar situation. Purdue struggles to run up the middle and instead focuses on running pulling schemes, toss plays, and other concepts to get outside. Against Penn State’s fast-flowing defense, that won’t work. Quarterback Hudson Card is a good college quarterback, but the lack of offensive speed and minimal protection renders him ineffective.

Penn State: 49
Purdue: 0

Matt Herb (Season Record – 8-1)

Back on Oct. 12, Purdue trailed Illinois 27-3 early in the third quarter and seemed to be on its way to a resounding defeat. Instead, the Boilermakers got up off the canvas and started throwing haymakers. After managing only a field goal in the first half, they scored 40 points in the second, turning a lopsided game into a back-and-forth slugfest before eventually falling in overtime, 50-49.

Whenever a team does something crazy like that, you wonder whether it can do it again. But the Boilers’ comeback against the Illini is enough of an outlier that you can’t help but wonder something else: Did Purdue coach Ryan Walters have some unique insight into the Illini’s vulnerabilities, given that he had been their DC previously? In three other games against ranked opponents — Notre Dame, Oregon and Ohio State — they’ve lost by a combined margin of 146-7. And the games against the Irish and Ducks took place in the seemingly friendly confines of Ross-Ade Stadium.

The Nittany Lions haven’t been putting the hammer down on overmatched opponents this season, but given Purdue’s showing against playoff-caliber opponents, and taking into account what’s at stake for Penn State, it’s hard to envision anything other than a comfortable win.

Penn State: 38
Purdue: 10

Greg Pickel (Season Record – 9-0)

There is no need to wax poetic in explaining this pick. Before the season started, ESPN’s Bill Conelly’s SP+ metrics projected Purdue as the No. 64 team overall with the No. 70 offense and No. 63 defense. Preseason rankings can often be wrong in both directions. Consider for a moment that Indiana was behind the Boilermakers at No. 81 overall in August before their breakout season kicked off. By now, there is enough data to have a pretty good feel for where each team stands. The Hoosiers are in the thick of the Playoff race and sit at No. 11 entering Week 12. Purdue, meanwhile, is 1-8 and has been worse than expected, falling all the way to No. 106 thanks to an offense and defense that both rank outside the top 100.

Penn State will have incredible advantages on both sides of the ball Saturday when its starters are in. And, for the most part, it will still have an edge once the backups presumably take field after a large lead is built, too. The Lions have struggled to separate themselves enough from most opponents this year to give the second and third teams a quarter and a half worth of run. But they should get it this week, just like they did against Kent State. No, Ryan Walters’ team is not that bad, but it’s pretty close. You will see why on Saturday if you haven’t seen them play yet.

Penn State: 49
Purdue: 3

Ryan Snyder (Season Record – 9-0)

At 1-8, Purdue is on pace for its worst season in about a decade. The Boilermakers almost pulled off an upset of Illinois last month, rallying from 24 points down to force overtime, only for a missed two-point conversion to end their hopes. They then rallied from a 17-3 scoreline against Northwestern two weeks ago, only to blow it again against the Wildcats, losing 26-20.

However, aside from those two games, Purdue hasn’t been within three scores of any FBS opponent the rest of the season. They also have three games against teams that could also make the playoff: Notre Dame (66-7), Oregon (35-0) and Ohio State (45-0).

We’ve hit that stretch now where every opponent and result will be under the microscope. To me, Penn State has no choice but to run it up this weekend if they want to earn that sixth seed in the playoff, which could make a massive difference. Just look at the current bracket.

We saw Penn State score four consecutive touchdowns last week to open the game, while the defense didn’t allow a point until the second half. Both the Buckeyes and Fighting Irish managed to score on six consecutive drives against Purdue in their games. Penn State needs to do something similar in this one. Style points will matter down the stretch.

Penn State: 42
Purdue: 7