Penn State-Rutgers predictions: How college football experts, computer data systems are picking Lions-Knights

No. 11 Penn State is set for its penultimate Big Ten test of the season. Today, the Lions take on Rutgers at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, N.J. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. Big Ten Network will televise the contest.

“They’re a very good team,” Scarlet Knights coach Greg Schiano said this week. “It’s not just defense, it’s all three phases. “Certainly, defensively, they played extremely well last week. Suffocating. They can cover. They play a lot of man or match-up, which turns into man once the routes declare. I think the thing they’re doing the best, they’re second in the Big Ten in sacks, only to Michigan by one. So, they’re getting after the passer. Pass coverage and pass rush usually go hand in hand. So, they’re doing both very well.

“I think what you’re looking at is what they are,” Greg Schiano said. “They’re one of the top 15 teams in America. They’re playing at that level now. That’s what I would say the biggest thing is. They’ve gotten better over the course of the season and they’re playing at a high level right now.”

Penn State is a 19.5-point favorite and the betting total over/under is 44.5. Can the Lions cover the double-digit spread? The picks roundup is here with a rundown.

Computer model picks for Penn State-Rutgers

At ESPN, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model has Penn State winning 35-12. That would equal a cover, of course.

Sportsline sees it 33-13 in favor of the Nittany Lions.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock predicts a 33-14 PSU triumph.

Finally, The Dunkle Index projects a 30-point Penn State victory.

Lions-Scarlet Knights picks from a national perspective

College Football News predicts a 38-10 Penn State win.

“The Penn State secondary hasn’t allowed more than 175 yards in four of the last five games, and it’s not going to get lit up by the Scarlet Knight attack,” Pete Fiutak writes. “It’ll be yet another double-digit win with a good all-around performance to potentially push the team into the College Football Playoff top ten when all is said and done, and again, it’ll be the next step to a sweet bowl game.

“Rutgers hasn’t scored more than ten points in any of the last eight meetings against the Nittany Lions, and it’s not going to crank it up here.”

SI.com calls it 32-13 in favor of the Nittany Lions.

Yahoo Sports also sees a PSU cover.

“Rutgers is 1-5 ATS as a double-digit home underdog since Greg Schiano returned in 2020,” Sam Cooper writes.

“In the last three, Rutgers lost by 39, 49 and 35 points. PSU has covered five of its last seven as a double-digit road favorite and I don’t sense a letdown in this group.”

Beat writer predictions for Penn State-Rutgers

The team at PennLive all see a Penn State victory on the horizon. But, two of six pickers do not predict a Lions’ cover, including Brian Fonseca of NJ.com. He writes:

“Rutgers will hang around for a while, but eventually, the dam will break and the Nittany Lions’ superior talent will shine through. The Scarlet Knights will hope to get a moral victory in the form of another step forward in Wimsatt’s development. Penn State 24, Rutgers 10.”

Jon Sauber of the Centre Daily Times has it 42-7 in favor of the visitors.

“I don’t know if I really believe Rutgers can score a touchdown but predicting a shutout feels like a bad move,” he writes.

“Still, the Scarlet Knights haven’t been able to do much of anything against anyone offensively this year and that’s probably not going to change against one of the best defenses it’ll face.”

Frank Bodani of the York Daily Record sees a 28-6 Lions triumph.

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Scarlet Knights

Nate Bauer: Penn State 34, Rutgers 7
Thomas Frank Carr: PSU 45, RU 10
Sean Fitz: Penn State 38,  Rutgers 0
Matt Herb: PSU 28, RU 13
Greg Pickel: Penn State 35, Rutgers 10
Ryan Snyder: PSU 38, RU 7