Penn State vs. Rutgers Predictions: What should fans expect against the Scarlet Knights?

Penn State returns to Beaver Stadium this weekend for its final home game of the 2023 season. It’s been an interesting week in State College to say the least, as head coach James Franklin fired offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich Sunday following the team’s loss to Michigan. Sure, we’ve seen plenty of coaching changes over the past decade, but that’s the first time we’ve seen Franklin make a change during the regular season.

Now, co-offensive coordinators Ja’Juan Seider and Ty Howle will take the reins of an offense that struggled against its two most important opponents but has scored 30 points or more in each of Penn State’s eight wins.

If that dynamic isn’t enough to get fans interested, they’ll face a Rutgers team that’s already reached six wins, making them bowl-eligible. The last time that happened was in 2014 when the Knights went 8-4 before losing to North Carolina in the Quick Lane Bowl. Rutgers also played in a bowl game in 2021 following a 5-7 season when Texas A&M withdrew from the Gator Bowl. They lost to Wake Forest 38-10.

Not only has Penn State never lost to Rutgers since joining the Big Ten in 2014, but the Nittany Lions have won those nine games by an average score of 30-5. All-time, Penn State has won 30 of 32 games, with Rutgers’ last win coming in 1988.

Last year’s game in Piscataway was one of the more lopsided results we’ve seen over the past decade, with Penn State winning 55-10. The Nittany Lions outgained Rutgers 436 to 167, including 237 yards rushing.

So, what should fans expect this Saturday? Our staff provides their predictions below.

Nate Bauer (Season: 9-1)

Everything about this screams letdown. The same way Indiana was after Ohio State, Penn State is walking into the same circumstances, but worse, as it takes on Rutgers on Saturday afternoon. A noon start, in front of a home, ornery crowd, and the potential for ugliness abounds. And this time, the Nittany Lions will be doing it with an interim situation at offensive coordinator.

To make matters more precarious for Penn State, it’ll also be doing it against a Rutgers program that doesn’t surrender points easily this season. Now ranked No. 19 nationally in scoring defense, the Scarlet Knights gave up 35 to Ohio State, 31 to Michigan, and 24 to Wisconsin. Beyond that, and a primary reason for their 6-4 record this season, is the consistency with which they’ve performed. 

Offsetting those challenges for the Nittany Lions are two important factors. One, Rutgers doesn’t score points itself. They’ll try to run the ball on Penn State and be content to punt, with the Nittany Lions likely better positioned to get off the field more than last week against the Wolverines. Two, Rutgers hasn’t been great on the road this season. Winning only once in four tries away from Piscataway, N.J., Beaver Stadium will be another challenging environment for Rutgers this week.

For a Penn State team that desperately needs a confidence boost, Rutgers isn’t likely to provide it. If anything, the Nittany Lions will have to find a way to fight through its dejection.

Penn State: 20
Rutgers: 17

Sean Fitz (Season: 9-1)

Penn State’s first game in the post-Mike Yurcich era will come against a pretty good defense. Greg Schiano has his guys playing well and although they’re not the deepest team on the schedule, the Scarlet Knights have been able to hang around with some good teams this season. The issue, however, has been points. Rutgers does not score them, especially on the road. They’re 1-3 away from Piscataway this season and have averaged under a touchdown a game in their three losses. That included a 22-0 loss to Iowa last weekend. 

So, while the Nittany Lions may need some time to find their footing under the new playcalling scheme, there should be a buffer there to work with. I don’t know what we’ll see from Ja’Juan Seider and Ty Howle this weekend, but I do think depth and overall talent can wear down the Scarlet Knights. We may be in for another one that is close in the first half while the Nittany Lions pull away in the second.  

Penn State: 26
Rutgers: 6

Thomas Frank Carr (Season: 9-1)

The Penn State offense is all that is holding the Nittany Lions back from an easy win in most games that we know. So when Rutgers comes to town with a smart, stingy defense, it doesn’t bode well for any easy points, no matter who’s calling the offense.

Or does it?

This week, there’s a certain amount of unpredictability with Penn State because we don’t know what changes and modifications we may see to the passing and rushing plans. Will the team be more aggressive with the passing game early? Or will they continue to push the idea of methodical chain-moving plays?

Defensively, we know the score. Penn State’s defense is good enough to make teams with a weak passing attack one-dimensional. I’d expect the Nittany Lions to sell out to stop the run and put the ball in Gavin Wimsatt’s hands. The wildcard here will be if the team has fixed its problems on third down. The team has been gashed by runs in its Prowler package when teams run at the smaller defenders or anticipate zone drops out of the look. Rutgers wants to run the ball at any point in a drive, so that will be on the table.

I’m going with a low-scoring win for Penn State.

Penn State: 24
Rutgers: 17

Matt Herb (Season: 10-0)

Mike Yurcich’s abrupt exit probably isn’t going to make Penn State’s offense any better or worse. At this point in the season, we know who the Nittany Lions are. They’re a team with enough playmakers to score in the 30s, 40s and even 50s against the lesser opponents on their schedule but not enough to break out of the teens against Ohio State and Michigan.

Rutgers used to be one of those lesser opponents, but the Scarlet Knights have been on an upswing this year. They are already bowl eligible and are assured of having their winningest season since 2014. Even in their 31-7 road loss to Big Ten frontrunner Michigan, they were more competitive than the lopsided final score would suggest, with the game essentially decided by a fourth-down conversion attempt late in the third quarter that went awry, turning into a pick six for the hosts.

One of the big questions this week is whether Penn State will come out sluggish like it did when it took on Indiana a week after losing to Ohio State. If that happens again, the Lions might not be as fortunate as they were against the Hoosiers — not against what appears to be a pretty solid Rutgers defense.

But Penn State can play a little defense, too. Indeed, the Lions have rarely faltered on that side of the ball, even in their two losses. So while there’s reason to be wary of an upset, Manny Diaz’s unit will likely keep the Scarlet Knights from pulling off their first win in this series since 1988.

Penn State: 27
Rutgers: 14

Greg Pickel (Season: 9-1)

What should we make of this mid-November Big Ten East clash? Penn State has struggled to find consistency on offense. However, those issues have been less worrisome against lesser foes compared to Michigan and Ohio State. The Lions, with interim offensive coordinators, find themselves set to face an opponent who falls into the former category on Saturday. Rutgers will struggle to move the ball against the Penn State defense.

Can the Lions move it, though? We expect plenty of starts and stops because that’s an ingrained trend at this time of the year. But, just like every other foe aside from the Buckeyes and Wolverines, you can expect Penn State to eventually hit the gas pedal on offense while playing lockdown defense through four quarters. After its first loss of the year, PSU struggled to put away Indiana. It will not have a similar problem after its second loss.

Penn State: 40
Rutgers: 3

Ryan Snyder (Season: 8-2)

I can’t remember the last time I was as intrigued as I am this week for a Penn State-Rutgers game. First off, give Greg Schiano credit. I don’t see the Scarlet Knights reaching the levels they did during his first tenure in Piscataway, but they have been much more competitive this year. He has that program heading in the right direction, and I was skeptical he’d be able to do that when he was hired a few years back.

But what intrigues me is Penn State’s offensive situation, with Ty Howle and Ja’Juan Seider set to take the reins of the offense. Rutgers has improved a lot defensively, but after facing Ohio State and Iowa in back-to-back weeks, I wonder how much they have left in the tank. The Hawkeyes controlled the ball for almost 40 minutes last Saturday. Considering how late it is in the season, that has to take a toll.

I think that sets up well for Penn State’s offense to have a bounceback game. Franklin also hinted a few times on Monday that there was some sort of disconnect between Yurcich and the rest of the staff. That could loosen things up a bit. We’ve seen that with many teams over the years. It’s also clear that they want Drew Allar to gain some confidence down the stretch before facing another quality opponent in a bowl game. I think they’ll do everything they can to accomplish that these next two weeks.

Defensively, Penn State has limited Rutgers to 10 points or less every year they’ve played since joining the Big Ten, and while they have improved, I think the roster’s lack of depth starts to show even more on Saturday. Offensively, if Iowa can score 22 against the Knights, I have no reason to think PSU can’t reach 30, which they’ve done in every game they’ve won this season.

Penn State: 31
Rutgers: 10